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| Version 3 | Version 4 |
|---|---|
| US economic growth stays positive | US economic growth stays positive |
| (30 minutes later) | |
| The US economy has been boosted by the government's $168bn (£84bn) stimulus package, according to official figures. | The US economy has been boosted by the government's $168bn (£84bn) stimulus package, according to official figures. |
| Gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annual rate of 1.9% between April and June, the Department of Commerce said, up from 0.9% in the previous quarter. | Gross domestic product (GDP) rose at an annual rate of 1.9% between April and June, the Department of Commerce said, up from 0.9% in the previous quarter. |
| The figure was worse than expected, sending Wall Street shares falling. | The figure was worse than expected, sending Wall Street shares falling. |
| Growth in the last three months of 2007 was downgraded from the previous reading of 0.6% to show a negative growth figure of -0.2%. | Growth in the last three months of 2007 was downgraded from the previous reading of 0.6% to show a negative growth figure of -0.2%. |
| The US dollar fell across the board, including against the euro and the yen, following the release of the data. | |
| Even at the current growth rate of nearly 2%, the US economy is only growing at half the rate it was one year ago. | Even at the current growth rate of nearly 2%, the US economy is only growing at half the rate it was one year ago. |
| But most forecasts, including that of the US government, suggest that growth will slow further as the year goes on. as the housing market continues to weaken. | But most forecasts, including that of the US government, suggest that growth will slow further as the year goes on. as the housing market continues to weaken. |
| What is less clear is how long the slowdown will continue, with the Bush administration suggesting a recovery in 2009, while other international organisations like the IMF arguing that the economy will continue to slow further until 2010. | What is less clear is how long the slowdown will continue, with the Bush administration suggesting a recovery in 2009, while other international organisations like the IMF arguing that the economy will continue to slow further until 2010. |
| Uncertainty | Uncertainty |
| The Bureau of Economic Analysis at the Commerce Department stressed that the first estimates of April to June growth are, "based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency". | The Bureau of Economic Analysis at the Commerce Department stressed that the first estimates of April to June growth are, "based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency". |
| Analysts are now concerned about what will happen to the US when the benefit of the stimulus package has passed. | Analysts are now concerned about what will happen to the US when the benefit of the stimulus package has passed. |
| The stimulus package has given tax rebates to 130 million households. | The stimulus package has given tax rebates to 130 million households. |
| But without that extra government spending, which added almost 4% to the economy that quarter, growth would have been negative. | But without that extra government spending, which added almost 4% to the economy that quarter, growth would have been negative. |
| Jobless claims rise | Jobless claims rise |
| The most common definition of a recession is two consecutive three-month periods of negative growth. | The most common definition of a recession is two consecutive three-month periods of negative growth. |
| Officially in the US, a recession has not taken place until the National Bureau of Economic Research says this is the case, but this decision may not come for two years. | Officially in the US, a recession has not taken place until the National Bureau of Economic Research says this is the case, but this decision may not come for two years. |
| "We're in a recession. I don't know how they get the 1.9% in the second quarter," said Robert Macintosh, chief economist at Eaton Vance Management in Boston. | "We're in a recession. I don't know how they get the 1.9% in the second quarter," said Robert Macintosh, chief economist at Eaton Vance Management in Boston. |
| "I think the most troubling thing out of all the numbers this morning is the (jobless) claims number. If that doesn't convince people we're in a recession, then nothing will." | "I think the most troubling thing out of all the numbers this morning is the (jobless) claims number. If that doesn't convince people we're in a recession, then nothing will." |
| Figures from the Department of Labor showed that the number of applications for unemployment benefit last week hit a five-year high. | Figures from the Department of Labor showed that the number of applications for unemployment benefit last week hit a five-year high. |
| Jobless claims reached 448,000, an increase of 44,000 from the previous week. | Jobless claims reached 448,000, an increase of 44,000 from the previous week. |