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| As North Korea Fires Missile Over Japan, Analysts See Gains | As North Korea Fires Missile Over Japan, Analysts See Gains |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, has authorized more than 80 missile tests since taking power almost six years ago. But all of those missiles landed in nearby waters because they were of limited range or fired at a sharp angle, high into space, so they would splash down without going too far. | SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, has authorized more than 80 missile tests since taking power almost six years ago. But all of those missiles landed in nearby waters because they were of limited range or fired at a sharp angle, high into space, so they would splash down without going too far. |
| On Tuesday, the North abandoned that restraint, lobbing an intermediate-range ballistic missile at a normal angle and sending it over the Japanese island of Hokkaido, into a spot in the Western Pacific almost 1,700 miles away. In doing so, Mr. Kim may have been trying to show that he can hit a faraway target, for the first time doing a more realistic test of the type of missile he had threatened to use to strike near the American territory of Guam. | On Tuesday, the North abandoned that restraint, lobbing an intermediate-range ballistic missile at a normal angle and sending it over the Japanese island of Hokkaido, into a spot in the Western Pacific almost 1,700 miles away. In doing so, Mr. Kim may have been trying to show that he can hit a faraway target, for the first time doing a more realistic test of the type of missile he had threatened to use to strike near the American territory of Guam. |
| Indeed, Mr. Kim called the latest launching a “curtain-raiser” and warned that his government could conduct more missile tests in the Pacific, North Korea’s state-run news media reported on Wednesday. | Indeed, Mr. Kim called the latest launching a “curtain-raiser” and warned that his government could conduct more missile tests in the Pacific, North Korea’s state-run news media reported on Wednesday. |
| While attending the launching of the Hwasong-12 missile on Tuesday, Mr. Kim said North Korea needed to conduct “more ballistic rocket launching drills with the Pacific as a target in the future,” according to the North’s official Korean Central News Agency. Mr. Kim called the Tuesday test “a meaningful prelude to containing Guam” and “a curtain-raiser” of the North’s “resolute countermeasures against” the joint military exercises that the United States and South Korea began on Aug. 21. | While attending the launching of the Hwasong-12 missile on Tuesday, Mr. Kim said North Korea needed to conduct “more ballistic rocket launching drills with the Pacific as a target in the future,” according to the North’s official Korean Central News Agency. Mr. Kim called the Tuesday test “a meaningful prelude to containing Guam” and “a curtain-raiser” of the North’s “resolute countermeasures against” the joint military exercises that the United States and South Korea began on Aug. 21. |
| Mr. Kim added that North Korea would continue to “watch the U.S. demeanors as already declared and decide its future action according to them.” The 11-day military drills by Washington and Seoul, which North Korea has vehemently condemned as a rehearsal for war, are scheduled to end on Thursday, a potential excuse for North Korea to de-escalate. | |
| Because of North Korea’s location — squeezed between China and South Korea, with Japan to the east and southeast and Russia to the northeast — there is essentially no way that the North can test missiles on such trajectories without flying over another nation. | Because of North Korea’s location — squeezed between China and South Korea, with Japan to the east and southeast and Russia to the northeast — there is essentially no way that the North can test missiles on such trajectories without flying over another nation. |
| “If the previous launchings were for testing technologies, this one was a realistic demonstration of an intermediate-range ballistic missile capability,” said Chang Young-keun, a missile expert at Korea Aerospace University near Seoul. “In this test, the North’s missile actually flew at a realistic angle and trajectory.” | “If the previous launchings were for testing technologies, this one was a realistic demonstration of an intermediate-range ballistic missile capability,” said Chang Young-keun, a missile expert at Korea Aerospace University near Seoul. “In this test, the North’s missile actually flew at a realistic angle and trajectory.” |
| President Trump said in a statement Tuesday that North Korea had “signaled its contempt for its neighbors, for all members of the United Nations, and for minimum standards of acceptable international behavior.” | President Trump said in a statement Tuesday that North Korea had “signaled its contempt for its neighbors, for all members of the United Nations, and for minimum standards of acceptable international behavior.” |
| He added, “Threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the North Korean regime’s isolation in the region and among all nations of the world. All options are on the table.” | He added, “Threatening and destabilizing actions only increase the North Korean regime’s isolation in the region and among all nations of the world. All options are on the table.” |
| At the United Nations, members of the Security Council met in an emergency session late Tuesday afternoon to discuss the next steps. After the meeting, which lasted nearly four hours, the 15 Security Council members unanimously adopted a statement condemning what they called North Korea’s “outrageous actions” in launching the missile over Japan and launching three missiles last Saturday. The statement called North Korea’s launchings “not just a threat to the region but all U.N. member states.” | At the United Nations, members of the Security Council met in an emergency session late Tuesday afternoon to discuss the next steps. After the meeting, which lasted nearly four hours, the 15 Security Council members unanimously adopted a statement condemning what they called North Korea’s “outrageous actions” in launching the missile over Japan and launching three missiles last Saturday. The statement called North Korea’s launchings “not just a threat to the region but all U.N. member states.” |
| But there was nothing in the statement that suggested the council was ready to further toughen the eight sets of sanctions it has imposed on the North, and it was unclear what further action, if any, might be taken. Speaking afterward, Nikki R. Haley, the United States ambassador, said the statement showed that “the world is united against North Korea.” She hinted at a possible American response, saying that “the United States will not allow this lawlessness to continue.” | |
| North Korea rattled the Trump administration last month by launching two intercontinental ballistic missiles, the second of which demonstrated the potential to reach the contiguous United States. But officials and analysts doubted that the country had mastered the technology needed to protect a nuclear warhead from intense heat and friction as it re-entered the atmosphere from space. | North Korea rattled the Trump administration last month by launching two intercontinental ballistic missiles, the second of which demonstrated the potential to reach the contiguous United States. But officials and analysts doubted that the country had mastered the technology needed to protect a nuclear warhead from intense heat and friction as it re-entered the atmosphere from space. |
| Tuesday’s test might have been most important for the development of more dependable intermediate-range missiles. But experts say it could also provide information for the crucial re-entry technology needed for a warhead on an intermediate-range missile to survive the fiery plunge back into the earth’s atmosphere. | Tuesday’s test might have been most important for the development of more dependable intermediate-range missiles. But experts say it could also provide information for the crucial re-entry technology needed for a warhead on an intermediate-range missile to survive the fiery plunge back into the earth’s atmosphere. |
| It is less clear if that information could help the North pursue the especially difficult goal of developing the re-entry technology needed to build a nuclear-tipped longer-range missile that could hit the mainland United States. Those warheads would re-enter more quickly, producing much higher heats. | It is less clear if that information could help the North pursue the especially difficult goal of developing the re-entry technology needed to build a nuclear-tipped longer-range missile that could hit the mainland United States. Those warheads would re-enter more quickly, producing much higher heats. |
| The Hwasong-12 is an intermediate-range ballistic missile that the North says is designed to carry a large nuclear warhead. After the launch on Tuesday, the Japanese government sent a text alert to its people, advising them to take protective cover in case the test went wrong. | The Hwasong-12 is an intermediate-range ballistic missile that the North says is designed to carry a large nuclear warhead. After the launch on Tuesday, the Japanese government sent a text alert to its people, advising them to take protective cover in case the test went wrong. |
| Japan said it did not try to shoot the missile down because it did not detect a threat to its territory. But analysts said the test nevertheless underscored some uncomfortable questions about the possibility of defending against such missiles. | Japan said it did not try to shoot the missile down because it did not detect a threat to its territory. But analysts said the test nevertheless underscored some uncomfortable questions about the possibility of defending against such missiles. |
| The allies could do little more than track the missile Tuesday as it arched over Hokkaido and splashed into the northern Pacific. Analysts said Japan could have tried to shoot it down if its Aegis destroyers, which are armed with SM3 Block I interceptor missiles, happened to be in waters between North Korea and Japan. But because the SM3 is slower than the Hwasong-12, they would have had to make the attempt before the missile passed over the ships. | The allies could do little more than track the missile Tuesday as it arched over Hokkaido and splashed into the northern Pacific. Analysts said Japan could have tried to shoot it down if its Aegis destroyers, which are armed with SM3 Block I interceptor missiles, happened to be in waters between North Korea and Japan. But because the SM3 is slower than the Hwasong-12, they would have had to make the attempt before the missile passed over the ships. |
| And one analyst noted that Japan could have been caught off guard entirely had the destroyers been elsewhere — for example, if Japan had ordered them south in response to North Korea’s threat to fire missiles into the waters around Guam. | And one analyst noted that Japan could have been caught off guard entirely had the destroyers been elsewhere — for example, if Japan had ordered them south in response to North Korea’s threat to fire missiles into the waters around Guam. |
| “After distracting attention toward Guam, North Korea fired the missile over Japan,” said Shin Jong-woo, a defense analyst at Korea Defense Forum, a Seoul-based network of military experts. “By doing so, it reduced the chance of its missile being shot down, and at the same time demonstrated its ability to hit a target as far away as Guam without actually launching the missile in its direction.” | “After distracting attention toward Guam, North Korea fired the missile over Japan,” said Shin Jong-woo, a defense analyst at Korea Defense Forum, a Seoul-based network of military experts. “By doing so, it reduced the chance of its missile being shot down, and at the same time demonstrated its ability to hit a target as far away as Guam without actually launching the missile in its direction.” |
| The missile launch came as the United States and Japan were wrapping up a two-week joint military exercise around Hokkaido, which culminated in the demonstration of the PAC-3 missile-defense system on Tuesday. Kim Dong-yub, a defense analyst at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul, noted that the missile flew too high for the PAC-3 to reach. | The missile launch came as the United States and Japan were wrapping up a two-week joint military exercise around Hokkaido, which culminated in the demonstration of the PAC-3 missile-defense system on Tuesday. Kim Dong-yub, a defense analyst at Kyungnam University’s Institute for Far Eastern Studies in Seoul, noted that the missile flew too high for the PAC-3 to reach. |
| “I don’t think it was an empty threat when North Korea warned it would fire the Hwasong-12 around Guam,” said Mr. Kim. “The test today was the North Korean way of saying that it would go ahead with it and would be able to do it if the United States kept dragging its feet in coming to the negotiating table under the North Korean terms.” | “I don’t think it was an empty threat when North Korea warned it would fire the Hwasong-12 around Guam,” said Mr. Kim. “The test today was the North Korean way of saying that it would go ahead with it and would be able to do it if the United States kept dragging its feet in coming to the negotiating table under the North Korean terms.” |
| Paul Burton, a Singapore-based director for Jane’s by IHS Markit, a defense analysis firm, noted that the North launched its missile Tuesday as the Trump administration was dealing with a calamitous storm in Houston. “The timing of the test shows that the North Korean regime has an acute sense of how to cause maximum impact with its accelerated missile testing program,” Mr. Burton said. | Paul Burton, a Singapore-based director for Jane’s by IHS Markit, a defense analysis firm, noted that the North launched its missile Tuesday as the Trump administration was dealing with a calamitous storm in Houston. “The timing of the test shows that the North Korean regime has an acute sense of how to cause maximum impact with its accelerated missile testing program,” Mr. Burton said. |
| South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, responded to the launch by ordering his military to “demonstrate a strong retaliatory capability against North Korea.” Four F-15K fighter jets soon dropped two bombs each at a domestic bombing range. | South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, responded to the launch by ordering his military to “demonstrate a strong retaliatory capability against North Korea.” Four F-15K fighter jets soon dropped two bombs each at a domestic bombing range. |
| Even as North Korea continues to test missiles, South Korean intelligence officials told lawmakers in Seoul this week that the North was technically prepared to conduct its sixth underground nuclear test. Officials have speculated that the North might do so on Sept. 9, a North Korean holiday called the Day of the Foundation of the Republic, or that it might launch another missile on that date. The North conducted its last nuclear test on Sept. 9. | Even as North Korea continues to test missiles, South Korean intelligence officials told lawmakers in Seoul this week that the North was technically prepared to conduct its sixth underground nuclear test. Officials have speculated that the North might do so on Sept. 9, a North Korean holiday called the Day of the Foundation of the Republic, or that it might launch another missile on that date. The North conducted its last nuclear test on Sept. 9. |