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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/sep/16/hard-brexit-even-german-carmakers-cant-save-us
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| Version 2 | Version 3 |
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| Even German carmakers won’t save us from a hard Brexit | Even German carmakers won’t save us from a hard Brexit |
| (5 days later) | |
| There is a shared belief among Leavers and Remainers to the effect that when the Brexit cliff-edge comes into view, London and Brussels will hatch a face-saving compromise. | There is a shared belief among Leavers and Remainers to the effect that when the Brexit cliff-edge comes into view, London and Brussels will hatch a face-saving compromise. |
| It’s not entirely clear what kind of gleaming alloy can be forged from the fire of claim and counterclaim on either side of the channel, but there should be a way, they think, to cut through the noise and make something solid and lasting that shows neither side is entirely inept. | It’s not entirely clear what kind of gleaming alloy can be forged from the fire of claim and counterclaim on either side of the channel, but there should be a way, they think, to cut through the noise and make something solid and lasting that shows neither side is entirely inept. |
| The Leavers are still convinced that German car companies hold all the aces. It is certainly a popular view inside the Department of International Trade, and even in David Davis’s Brexit department. | The Leavers are still convinced that German car companies hold all the aces. It is certainly a popular view inside the Department of International Trade, and even in David Davis’s Brexit department. |
| Davis, after all, is the chief negotiator who used his first tour of Europe following the referendum result to taunt local politicians about their lack of influence once the likes of Renault, BMW or VW started making their voices heard. | Davis, after all, is the chief negotiator who used his first tour of Europe following the referendum result to taunt local politicians about their lack of influence once the likes of Renault, BMW or VW started making their voices heard. |
| Davis is more hard-boiled than he was when he started, and more realistic that the terms of engagement are more complicated than he had first envisaged. But, ultimately, he falls into the camp that still believes economics will overtake politics in the final straight, allowing his team to extract the kind of business-friendly deal, with an extended transition period, that the CBI is calling for so vociferously this weekend. | Davis is more hard-boiled than he was when he started, and more realistic that the terms of engagement are more complicated than he had first envisaged. But, ultimately, he falls into the camp that still believes economics will overtake politics in the final straight, allowing his team to extract the kind of business-friendly deal, with an extended transition period, that the CBI is calling for so vociferously this weekend. |
| Many Remainers also believe that economic realities will ultimately decide the outcome. They argue that when Angela Merkel said earlier this year that the unity of Europe was paramount – which meant maintaining the free movement of goods, services, capital and labour within the union’s borders – the German leader’s hard line was largely due to the unrest then evident in much of Europe. | Many Remainers also believe that economic realities will ultimately decide the outcome. They argue that when Angela Merkel said earlier this year that the unity of Europe was paramount – which meant maintaining the free movement of goods, services, capital and labour within the union’s borders – the German leader’s hard line was largely due to the unrest then evident in much of Europe. |
| The French, Dutch and German general elections lay ahead, the Five Star movement had won big in Italy’s local elections on a platform of quitting the euro, and Poland was becoming an increasingly detached neighbour, receding into a form of Catholic feudalism. | The French, Dutch and German general elections lay ahead, the Five Star movement had won big in Italy’s local elections on a platform of quitting the euro, and Poland was becoming an increasingly detached neighbour, receding into a form of Catholic feudalism. |
| Now that all these problems are successfully navigated or out of the way (with the exception of Poland and its government’s moves to control the courts), the “four freedoms” – enshrined in the 1957 Treaty of Rome and reinforced in the Single European Act of 1986, the 1992 Maastricht treaty and the Lisbon treaty of 2007 – can be relaxed, Remainers say. | Now that all these problems are successfully navigated or out of the way (with the exception of Poland and its government’s moves to control the courts), the “four freedoms” – enshrined in the 1957 Treaty of Rome and reinforced in the Single European Act of 1986, the 1992 Maastricht treaty and the Lisbon treaty of 2007 – can be relaxed, Remainers say. |
| And why not? Merkel is a centre-right politician who has a soft spot for liberal reformers. She believes in prosperity for the greatest number and that free markets are the best way to deliver that goal, tempered by regulation and social safety nets. Surely an EU without Britain is an impediment to achieving her legacy of framing a new and better Europe, not a diminished one? | And why not? Merkel is a centre-right politician who has a soft spot for liberal reformers. She believes in prosperity for the greatest number and that free markets are the best way to deliver that goal, tempered by regulation and social safety nets. Surely an EU without Britain is an impediment to achieving her legacy of framing a new and better Europe, not a diminished one? |
| Macron is another leader apparently just waiting for the right moment to throw his weight behind a grand compromise. He too wants to liberalise the EU and be seen as business-friendly. And he wouldn’t want a downturn in GDP to hit France ahead of his re-election campaign in 2022. Paris, like Berlin, enjoys a trade surplus with the UK. Wouldn’t they like it to stay that way? | Macron is another leader apparently just waiting for the right moment to throw his weight behind a grand compromise. He too wants to liberalise the EU and be seen as business-friendly. And he wouldn’t want a downturn in GDP to hit France ahead of his re-election campaign in 2022. Paris, like Berlin, enjoys a trade surplus with the UK. Wouldn’t they like it to stay that way? |
| None of these arguments are outlandish. Privately, German car companies are against holding the UK to a hard Brexit. It’s just that the idea economics will win the day appears to ignore all the important messages from those who will influence events. | None of these arguments are outlandish. Privately, German car companies are against holding the UK to a hard Brexit. It’s just that the idea economics will win the day appears to ignore all the important messages from those who will influence events. |
| Davis should be the first to recognise that electorates are just as likely to ignore warnings of economic disaster, if the cause is one that suits their political outlook. That’s how Brexit happened in the first place. So why does he think that German business leaders will put trade with the UK above the cohesion of the remaining 27 countries, which serves their purpose much more than keeping borders open with the UK? Carmakers are threatened more by the end of the combustion engine than by Brexit. | Davis should be the first to recognise that electorates are just as likely to ignore warnings of economic disaster, if the cause is one that suits their political outlook. That’s how Brexit happened in the first place. So why does he think that German business leaders will put trade with the UK above the cohesion of the remaining 27 countries, which serves their purpose much more than keeping borders open with the UK? Carmakers are threatened more by the end of the combustion engine than by Brexit. |
| The French president is pushing to liberalise employment laws in France, it’s true, but his aim is to enhance the free movement of labour, not hand EU countries more levers to limit who can be employed and where. There is enough of that going on already without Brussels giving the green light to hysteria about Lithuanians usurping Belgian workers, or Bulgarian migrants stealing jobs in Italy. | The French president is pushing to liberalise employment laws in France, it’s true, but his aim is to enhance the free movement of labour, not hand EU countries more levers to limit who can be employed and where. There is enough of that going on already without Brussels giving the green light to hysteria about Lithuanians usurping Belgian workers, or Bulgarian migrants stealing jobs in Italy. |
| Clamping down on free movement wouldn’t fit with attempts to deepen the structures of the EU and make it function more as one country, or at least create a eurozone that becomes more of a unitary entity. That is the Franco-German answer to the long-term repair of the EU’s battered economy. And that is the project that should make Remainers despair. | Clamping down on free movement wouldn’t fit with attempts to deepen the structures of the EU and make it function more as one country, or at least create a eurozone that becomes more of a unitary entity. That is the Franco-German answer to the long-term repair of the EU’s battered economy. And that is the project that should make Remainers despair. |
| In Paris as much as Berlin, it is clear that workers are happier in Lisbon, Rome and Madrid because they think growth has returned and the liberalising reforms that were the price of EU money have gone away. | In Paris as much as Berlin, it is clear that workers are happier in Lisbon, Rome and Madrid because they think growth has returned and the liberalising reforms that were the price of EU money have gone away. |
| Macron abhors such short-termism. It solves today’s problems, but only to store up more for tomorrow, especially as Europe slides into old age and looks to its young to pay more tax or accept higher borrowing. | Macron abhors such short-termism. It solves today’s problems, but only to store up more for tomorrow, especially as Europe slides into old age and looks to its young to pay more tax or accept higher borrowing. |
| The UK’s plan to quit the EU, with cherries picked and borders blocked, is peripheral to this debate. Prepare for a clean Brexit. | The UK’s plan to quit the EU, with cherries picked and borders blocked, is peripheral to this debate. Prepare for a clean Brexit. |
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