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| Ukip could fall apart after latest leadership election, say insiders | Ukip could fall apart after latest leadership election, say insiders |
| (4 months later) | |
| Warning comes as Ukip members vote to pick fourth leader in a year from seven-strong list of little-known candidates | |
| Peter Walker Political correspondent | |
| Wed 20 Sep 2017 14.26 BST | |
| Last modified on Mon 27 Nov 2017 16.43 GMT | |
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| Ukip faces the real prospect of a split or even gradual extinction following a leadership election that could result in the party lurching towards a hard-right brand of populism, senior insiders have warned. | Ukip faces the real prospect of a split or even gradual extinction following a leadership election that could result in the party lurching towards a hard-right brand of populism, senior insiders have warned. |
| Just two years since Nigel Farage led the party to third place by vote share in the 2015 election, top figures say Ukip risks becoming a defunct political force as it struggles for a new purpose after Brexit. | Just two years since Nigel Farage led the party to third place by vote share in the 2015 election, top figures say Ukip risks becoming a defunct political force as it struggles for a new purpose after Brexit. |
| Ballot papers have been sent out for the vote to choose a successor to Paul Nuttall, under whose disastrous six months in charge the party slumped from nearly 4m votes in the 2015 election to fewer than 600,000 in June. | Ballot papers have been sent out for the vote to choose a successor to Paul Nuttall, under whose disastrous six months in charge the party slumped from nearly 4m votes in the 2015 election to fewer than 600,000 in June. |
| Not only are Ukip’s members having to pick a fourth leader in just a year, they face a seven-strong candidate list of dubious quality, comprising of the largely obscure, the occasionally extreme and the often eccentric. | Not only are Ukip’s members having to pick a fourth leader in just a year, they face a seven-strong candidate list of dubious quality, comprising of the largely obscure, the occasionally extreme and the often eccentric. |
| Among these are a contender who argues that one of the UK’s most pressing problems is the rise of transgender rights; one who wants dual-nationality Britons to be paid to leave; and another who thinks Brexit should be financed by mining the asteroid belt. | Among these are a contender who argues that one of the UK’s most pressing problems is the rise of transgender rights; one who wants dual-nationality Britons to be paid to leave; and another who thinks Brexit should be financed by mining the asteroid belt. |
| Party insiders say six of the seven have a realistic chance of becoming the new leader at Ukip’s annual conference on 29 September, meaning the winner could triumph with a relatively tiny share of a split vote. | Party insiders say six of the seven have a realistic chance of becoming the new leader at Ukip’s annual conference on 29 September, meaning the winner could triumph with a relatively tiny share of a split vote. |
| Such atomisation could prove corrosive for a party already beset by infighting, having been for years largely kept together by the towering influence of Farage and the overriding priority of Brexit. | Such atomisation could prove corrosive for a party already beset by infighting, having been for years largely kept together by the towering influence of Farage and the overriding priority of Brexit. |
| “Whoever wins, I think the party will fragment in some way,” said one senior party figure, speaking anonymously. “There will be a blood-letting – there’s been too much bitterness for that not to happen.” | “Whoever wins, I think the party will fragment in some way,” said one senior party figure, speaking anonymously. “There will be a blood-letting – there’s been too much bitterness for that not to happen.” |
| Another senior Ukip source said: “It’s fair to say that most members don’t know a lot about the candidates, and so will probably choose after reading the leaflets with the ballot paper. That means almost anyone could win.” | Another senior Ukip source said: “It’s fair to say that most members don’t know a lot about the candidates, and so will probably choose after reading the leaflets with the ballot paper. That means almost anyone could win.” |
| The nightmare scenario for most in Ukip is victory for Anne-Marie Waters, a hardline anti-Islam campaigner with close far-right links, who describes the faith as “evil” and seeks to make the party a populist force based around religious intolerance. | The nightmare scenario for most in Ukip is victory for Anne-Marie Waters, a hardline anti-Islam campaigner with close far-right links, who describes the faith as “evil” and seeks to make the party a populist force based around religious intolerance. |
| Almost all Ukip’s MEPs have pledged to quit if she takes over. This week another candidate, Henry Bolton, said Ukip could become the “UK Nazi party” if it chose what he called “the wrong” leader, assumed to mean Waters. | Almost all Ukip’s MEPs have pledged to quit if she takes over. This week another candidate, Henry Bolton, said Ukip could become the “UK Nazi party” if it chose what he called “the wrong” leader, assumed to mean Waters. |
| While Waters is the most toxic, several other candidates also hope to reshape Ukip as a more overtly populist, hard-right-leaning group, and all could prompt something of an exodus of moderates. | While Waters is the most toxic, several other candidates also hope to reshape Ukip as a more overtly populist, hard-right-leaning group, and all could prompt something of an exodus of moderates. |
| One is Peter Whittle, Nuttall’s former deputy and arguably the best-known candidate. A self-styled cerebral figure with his own personal thinktank, Whittle devised Ukip’s inaugural anti-Islam policies at the last election and talks of the party becoming a patriotic “cultural movement”. | One is Peter Whittle, Nuttall’s former deputy and arguably the best-known candidate. A self-styled cerebral figure with his own personal thinktank, Whittle devised Ukip’s inaugural anti-Islam policies at the last election and talks of the party becoming a patriotic “cultural movement”. |
| He is popular among some party figures. “Peter’s clever and credible – you could let him on Question Time and be confident he wouldn’t look an idiot,” said a senior figure. Others disagree about his level of political sophistication. | He is popular among some party figures. “Peter’s clever and credible – you could let him on Question Time and be confident he wouldn’t look an idiot,” said a senior figure. Others disagree about his level of political sophistication. |
| In a similar vein is David Kurten, who says one of his three policy priorities is ending what he terms the “cultural Marxism” of promoting transgender rights in schools. | In a similar vein is David Kurten, who says one of his three policy priorities is ending what he terms the “cultural Marxism” of promoting transgender rights in schools. |
| “Families are very worried that boys and girls are going to be taught that they’re not boys and girls, but they choose what they are out of 67 genders or something,” Kurten told a hustings event in Kent earlier this month. | “Families are very worried that boys and girls are going to be taught that they’re not boys and girls, but they choose what they are out of 67 genders or something,” Kurten told a hustings event in Kent earlier this month. |
| A slightly different brand of populism is offered by John Rees-Evans, a former soldier and unlikely political figure, who remains best-known for once claiming a gay donkey tried to rape his horse. | A slightly different brand of populism is offered by John Rees-Evans, a former soldier and unlikely political figure, who remains best-known for once claiming a gay donkey tried to rape his horse. |
| Rees-Evans, who advocated paying dual-nationality Britons to return to their family’s country of origin, is pushing for what he calls “direct democracy”, where the government takes instructions from regular mass public votes, carried out online or at booths “in cafés and restaurants around the country”. | Rees-Evans, who advocated paying dual-nationality Britons to return to their family’s country of origin, is pushing for what he calls “direct democracy”, where the government takes instructions from regular mass public votes, carried out online or at booths “in cafés and restaurants around the country”. |
| The final three candidates have more traditional Ukip views, among them Jane Collins, an MEP promising to bring the party together under a properly costed manifesto and well-trained election team. | The final three candidates have more traditional Ukip views, among them Jane Collins, an MEP promising to bring the party together under a properly costed manifesto and well-trained election team. |
| Collins’ hopes are hampered by the fallout from a very expensive libel case loss, after falsely claiming three Rotherham MPs failed to act when they knew about the child abuse scandal in the town. | Collins’ hopes are hampered by the fallout from a very expensive libel case loss, after falsely claiming three Rotherham MPs failed to act when they knew about the child abuse scandal in the town. |
| “This is going to be a problem if Jane wins,” said one senior party member. “The first question interviewers will ask her is: ‘You’re a proven liar, why should we listen to you?’ That might be unfair – I think she was badly advised – but it will happen.” | “This is going to be a problem if Jane wins,” said one senior party member. “The first question interviewers will ask her is: ‘You’re a proven liar, why should we listen to you?’ That might be unfair – I think she was badly advised – but it will happen.” |
| Another traditionalist, at least by Ukip standards, is Aidan Powlesland, who – when not advocating asteroid belt mining – primarily argues for an economy based on low taxes and minimal regulation. | Another traditionalist, at least by Ukip standards, is Aidan Powlesland, who – when not advocating asteroid belt mining – primarily argues for an economy based on low taxes and minimal regulation. |
| Powlesland is seen as the only one of the seven without a chance of winning, not least due to his unpopular promise to massively increase membership fees to make Ukip more financially viable. | Powlesland is seen as the only one of the seven without a chance of winning, not least due to his unpopular promise to massively increase membership fees to make Ukip more financially viable. |
| Finally there is Bolton, previously little known even within Ukip, but seen as gathering momentum during the contest, and rumoured to be Farage’s preferred choice. | Finally there is Bolton, previously little known even within Ukip, but seen as gathering momentum during the contest, and rumoured to be Farage’s preferred choice. |
| A former soldier, police officer and UN official, Bolton is not above populism – he has warned about what he called “the dominating rise of Islam” in the UK – but presents himself as the only competent leader on offer. | A former soldier, police officer and UN official, Bolton is not above populism – he has warned about what he called “the dominating rise of Islam” in the UK – but presents himself as the only competent leader on offer. |
| Some insiders believe the race is shaping up to be between Bolton and Whittle, with the former seen as the best option on offer: a low-key, competent technocrat who could bring stability before a more charismatic replacement is found. | Some insiders believe the race is shaping up to be between Bolton and Whittle, with the former seen as the best option on offer: a low-key, competent technocrat who could bring stability before a more charismatic replacement is found. |
| Others fear this would merely delay the inevitable for a party abandoned by Farage for the US political talkshow circuit, infiltrated by far-right ideas, and wracked by divisions serious enough to leave one MEP in hospital after a fight. | Others fear this would merely delay the inevitable for a party abandoned by Farage for the US political talkshow circuit, infiltrated by far-right ideas, and wracked by divisions serious enough to leave one MEP in hospital after a fight. |
| “Henry Bolton has his virtues, but I’m not sure he’s up to the task,” said one senior party member. “It’s hard to see how he’ll be able to lead effectively. He’s got a lot of very good experience, but it’s not really relevant experience.” | “Henry Bolton has his virtues, but I’m not sure he’s up to the task,” said one senior party member. “It’s hard to see how he’ll be able to lead effectively. He’s got a lot of very good experience, but it’s not really relevant experience.” |
| Another was more blunt: “If Bolton wins there probably won’t be a wave of protest. But rather than fireworks you’ll see slow death for the party. People won’t rise up, they’ll just go to sleep and never wake up again.” | Another was more blunt: “If Bolton wins there probably won’t be a wave of protest. But rather than fireworks you’ll see slow death for the party. People won’t rise up, they’ll just go to sleep and never wake up again.” |
| UK Independence party (Ukip) | |
| Nigel Farage | |
| news | |
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