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Theresa May Seeks to Unlock Brexit Talks in Florence Speech Theresa May Seeks to Unlock Brexit Talks in Florence Speech
(about 7 hours later)
LONDON — After a week of particularly fraught infighting in London, Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain will try on Friday to end the stalemate in negotiations over her country’s withdrawal from the European Union, and is expected to offer substantial payments to the bloc after the country’s exit. LONDON — Seeking to end a stalemate in negotiations over her country’s withdrawal from the European Union, Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain offered Friday substantial payments to the bloc during a two-year transition period immediately after the country’s exit.
Mrs. May’s long-awaited intervention, during a speech in Florence, Italy, will be watched closely in capitals on the Continent and in London, where members of her cabinet have been fiercely divided over Britain’s tortuous divorce from the bloc. The speech will seek to kick-start stalled negotiations on what is commonly known as Brexit, and to open the way to a broader and more productive discussion about Britain’s relationship with the bloc. Mrs. May’s long-awaited intervention, during a speech in Florence, Italy, was being watched closely in capitals on the Continent and in London, where members of her cabinet have been fiercely divided over Britain’s tortuous divorce from the bloc. The speech aimed to open the way to serious negotiations on what is commonly known as Brexit, and to a broader and more productive discussion about Britain’s relationship with the bloc.
Although Britain is scheduled to exit the European Union in March 2019, there has been little progress in talks since London formally announced in March its intention to leave, and Brussels is insisting that Britain agree to the terms of the divorce before discussing future trade ties. Many businesses worry about a “cliff edge” scenario, in which Britain would crash out without a deal, so Mrs. May is under pressure to find a way out of the impasse. However, while offering some concessions designed to do that, Mrs. May did not give any fresh insight into the type of ties she ultimately wants Britain to have to the bloc — a question that divides her cabinet and her Conservative, or Tory, Party.
Analysts do not expect Mrs. May to quantify how much money Britain would continue to contribute to the European Union. Instead, she is expected to make an undefined but significant promise that the British — who are big net contributors to the bloc — would not leave a hole in its budget in 2019 and 2020. The European Union’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, issued a cautious response, saying in a statement that, “We look forward to the United Kingdom’s negotiators explaining the concrete implications of Prime Minister Theresa May’s speech. Our ambition is to find a rapid agreement on the conditions of the United Kingdom’s orderly withdrawal, as well as on a possible transition period.”
That would probably mean payments of around 20 billion euros, or about $24 billion, after Britain’s departure, contributions that would effectively keep things pretty much as they are today for a two-year transition period. Although Britain is scheduled to exit the European Union in 2019, there has been little progress in talks since March, when London formally announced its intention to leave. Brussels is insisting that Britain agree to the terms of the divorce before discussing future trade ties, while the British would like to do both simultaneously.
That alone is unlikely to be enough to satisfy the 27 other member nations, but Mrs. May will no doubt hope that the opening bid is good enough to revive talks, particularly if her rhetoric is as constructive as the government has hinted it will be. In light of the continuing standoff, many businesses worry about a “cliff edge” scenario, in which Britain would crash out without a deal, so Mrs. May is under pressure to find a way out of the impasse.
According to excerpts from the speech released by her office, Mrs. May will say that while Britain’s departure “is inevitably a difficult process, it is in all of our interests for our negotiations to succeed.” Speaking in Florence on Friday, Mrs. May did not say precisely how much money Britain would continue to contribute to the European Union. But she made a significant promise that the British — who are big net contributors to the bloc — would not leave a hole in its budget in 2019 and 2020.
“If we can do that,” she is expected to say, “then when this chapter of our European history is written, it will be remembered not for the differences we faced, but for the vision we showed.” “I do not want our partners to fear that they will need to pay more or receive less over the remainder of the current budget plan as a result of our decision to leave,” Mrs. May said.
That would probably mean payments of around 20 billion euros, or about $24 billion, after Britain’s departure. It would also effectively maintain the status quo for the duration of a two-year transition period, meaning that Britain would allow the free movement of European workers and accept rulings from the European Court of Justice.
This alone is unlikely to be enough to satisfy the 27 other member nations, but Mrs. May hinted that she would be willing to go further and “honor commitments we have made during the period of our membership.”
In addition, Mrs. May proposed a security partnership with the European Union, stressing Britain’s importance as a defense power, and also offered new legal safeguards to guarantee the rights of European Union citizens in Britain after Brexit.
Overall, Mrs. May sought to stress the common interest London shares with continental European capitals in reaching an agreement and avoiding disruption to trade, wrapping her offer in rhetoric that was more positive, and less antagonistic, than that of some previous interventions.
European Union negotiators have refused to talk about post-Brexit ties until they judge that there is “sufficient progress” on the issues they consider a priority: the status of European Union citizens in Britain after it leaves, the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland (which is a part of the United Kingdom) and Britain’s financial commitments to the bloc.European Union negotiators have refused to talk about post-Brexit ties until they judge that there is “sufficient progress” on the issues they consider a priority: the status of European Union citizens in Britain after it leaves, the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland (which is a part of the United Kingdom) and Britain’s financial commitments to the bloc.
“From the European Union’s point of view, it probably takes us 50 percent of the way there,” said Mats Persson, who was a special adviser to former Prime Minister David Cameron and is now head of international trade at the advisory firm EY. “It’s moving us forward, but whether it constitutes ‘significant progress’ for the E.U., I am just not sure.” “I think it is definitely a net plus in terms of moving it forward” said Mats Persson, who was a special adviser to former Prime Minister David Cameron and is now head of international trade at the advisory firm EY. Mrs. May’s language opened the possibility of a breakthrough over financial contributions, said Mr. Persson, though he said he was surprised at how little new Mrs. May said about her hopes for the shape of the final Brexit deal.
Mrs. May briefed her cabinet about plans for the speech on Thursday, after a tense week in which divisions were paraded in public, with Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary and a hard-line proponent of a withdrawal, publishing a 4,000 word essay outlining his vision of the future. Mrs. May suggested that an arrangement like Norway, which is part of Europe’s single market, accepting its rules and the free movement of people, would not work for Britain. But she added that Britain could do better than a free trade deal of the type that Canada has negotiated with the European Union.
Yet, there is little sign yet that the other 27 nations are prepared to grant Britain a bespoke agreement, and officials have warned London on numerous occasions that there would be no “cherry picking” of the parts of European Union membership it likes.
Mrs. May had briefed her cabinet about plans for the speech on Thursday, after a tense week in which divisions were paraded in public, with Boris Johnson, the foreign secretary and a hard-line proponent of a withdrawal, publishing a 4,000 word essay outlining his vision of the future.
The episode illustrated how the referendum last year on withdrawal, intended to end the Conservative Party’s divisions over Europe, only sharpened them. To make matters worse, senior ministers are jockeying to succeed Mrs. May, who made a huge tactical mistake by calling a general election in June, in which her party lost its parliamentary majority.The episode illustrated how the referendum last year on withdrawal, intended to end the Conservative Party’s divisions over Europe, only sharpened them. To make matters worse, senior ministers are jockeying to succeed Mrs. May, who made a huge tactical mistake by calling a general election in June, in which her party lost its parliamentary majority.
Mr. Johnson attended the two-and-a-half-hour meeting, after dismissing reports that he might resign. In a public show of unity, he emerged after the meeting alongside the chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, who has led calls for a “softer” departure from the bloc that could afford greater protections for the economy. Mr. Johnson attended Mrs. May’s speech in Florence alongside the chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, who has led calls for a “softer” departure from the bloc that could afford greater protections for the economy.
Only hours earlier, Mrs. May’s former chief of staff, Nick Timothy, who supports leaving the bloc, published an article in The Daily Telegraph asserting that Mr. Hammond’s department was reluctant even to “mention the positives” of leaving the European Union, and accusing the chancellor of being on “maneuvers” to replace Mrs. May. Afterward on Twitter, Mr. Johnson welcomed the speech and put his spin on its contents which he described as “positive, optimistic and dynamic.”
Mrs. May was expected to use her transition statement to calm anxieties in the business world while also reassuring withdrawal hard-liners that, when the initial phase is over, Britain would not be bound by the bloc’s economic, migration and legal rules. That suggested that Mrs. May may succeed for now in reassuring most Brexit hard-liners that, when the all is said and done, Britain would not be bound by the bloc’s economic, migration and legal rules.
In March, Mrs. May formally began the withdrawal process, invoking a treaty article that lays down a two-year deadline for the completion of talks — unless all member countries agree to extend it. In March, Mrs. May formally began the withdrawal process, invoking a treaty article that sets a two-year deadline for the completion of talks — unless all member countries agree to extend it.
The European Union’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, said on Thursday that there was still significant “uncertainty” over Britain’s position, and that time was of the essence if a deal is to be reaching. Not everyone was pleased with Mrs. May’s speech. In a Twitter post, Manfred Weber, leader of the center-right group of political parties in the European Parliament, dismissed it as bringing “no more clarity.”
Noting that six months had passed since Mrs. May set withdrawal negotiations in motion, and arguing that six months would be needed to allow for ratification of any agreement, Mr. Barnier said, “There is therefore only one year left.” In Britain, Nigel Farage, the former leader of the U.K. Independence Party, and a hard-line Brexit supporter, said that withdrawal had been “kicked into the long grass.”
Mrs. May’s speech was being criticized in Britain even before she spoke. Peter Bone, a Conservative lawmaker and supporter of leaving the bloc, said that the reported terms of her financial offer were unacceptable. Meanwhile, Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the opposition Labour Party, described the speech as the “product of the internal negotiation of the Tory Party rather than negotiations with the E.U.”
The money that “Theresa May is reportedly about to offer as the biggest divorce settlement in history would simply be the down payment,” said Vince Cable, leader of the centrist Liberal Democrats, which opposes a withdrawal. “Brexit will cost a lot, lot more than this.” Another opponent warned that this was just the first step on a long and costly road for Britain. The money that “Theresa May is reportedly about to offer as the biggest divorce settlement in history would simply be the down payment,” said Vince Cable, leader of the centrist Liberal Democrats, who flatly oppose withdrawal. “Brexit will cost a lot, lot more than this.”