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Angela Merkel Is Headed for German Election Victory as Far Right Enters Parliament Angela Merkel Makes History in German Vote, but So Does Far Right
(about 4 hours later)
BERLIN — Angela Merkel is headed toward a fourth term as German chancellor and a far-right party will enter parliament for the first time in more than 60 years, according to normally reliable exit polls released just after the voting ended in Germany. BERLIN — Angela Merkel won a fourth term as chancellor in elections on Sunday, placing her in the front ranks of Germany’s postwar leaders, even as her victory was dimmed by the entry of a far-right party into parliament for the first time in more than 60 years, according to preliminary results.
The far-right party, Alternative for Germany, got some 13.5 percent of the vote, a significant showing of voter anger over immigration and inequality as support for the two main parties sagged. The far-right party, Alternative for Germany, or AfD, got some 13 percent of the vote, a significant showing of voter anger over immigration and inequality as support for the two main parties sagged from four years ago.
Despite her victory, Ms. Merkel and her conservatives cannot rule alone, making it probable that the chancellor’s political life will be substantially more complicated. The shape and policies of a new governing coalition will involve weeks of painstaking negotiations. Ms. Merkel won, the center held, but it was weakened. The results made clear that far-right populism — and anxieties over security and national identity — were far from dead in Europe.
The center-left Social Democrats, Ms. Merkel’s coalition partners for the last four years, ran a poor second to her center-right grouping, and its leaders announced Sunday evening that the party would go into opposition, hoping to rebuild their political profile. They also showed that Germany’s mainstream parties were not immune to the same troubles that have afflicted mainstream parties across the Continent, from Italy to France to Britain.
But the step was a way for Germany’s mainstream political parties to make sure that the far-right Alternative for Germany, or AfD, stays on the political sidelines and does not become as the country’s official opposition. “We expected a better result, that is clear,” Ms. Merkel said Sunday night. “The good thing is that we will definitely lead the next government.”
The Alternative for Germany nonetheless vowed to shake the consensus politics of Germany. Alexander Gauland, one of AfD’s leaders, told party supporters after the results that in parliament: “We will go after them. We will claim back our country.” She said that she would listen to those who voted for the Alternative for Germany, or AfD, and work to win them back “by solving problems, by taking up their worries, partly also their fears, but above all by good politics,” she said.
But her comments seemed to augur a shift to the right and more of an emphasis on controls over borders, migration and security.
Despite her victory, Ms. Merkel and her conservatives cannot rule alone, making it probable that the chancellor’s political life in her fourth term will be substantially more complicated.
The shape and policies of a new governing coalition will involve weeks of painstaking negotiations. Smiling, Ms. Merkel said Sunday night that she hoped to have a new government “by Christmas.”
The center-left Social Democrats, Ms. Merkel’s coalition partners for the last four years, ran a poor second to her center-right grouping, and the Social Democrats announced Sunday evening that the party would go into opposition, hoping to rebuild their political profile.
But the step would also make sure that the AfD, stays on the political sidelines and does not become the country’s official opposition.
The Alternative for Germany nonetheless vowed to shake the consensus politics of Germany, and in breaking a postwar taboo by entering parliament, it already had.
Alexander Gauland, one of AfD’s leaders, told party supporters after the results that in parliament: “We will go after them. We will claim back our country.”
To cheers, he said: “We did it. We are in the German parliament and we will change Germany.”To cheers, he said: “We did it. We are in the German parliament and we will change Germany.”
While both Ms. Merkel and the Social Democrats lost significant voter support from 2013, her victory vaults her into the ranks of Konrad Adenauer and Helmut Kohl, the only post-war chancellors to win four national elections. Burkhard Schröder, an AfD member since 2014 from Düsseldorf, was ecstatic. “We are absolutely euphoric here,” he said. “This is a strong victory for us that has weakened Angela Merkel.”
Now 63, the election is a remarkable capstone for her, the first East German and the first woman to become chancellor. Up to 700 protesters gathered outside the AfD’s election night party, chanting slogans like “All of Berlin, hate the AfD.”
It also represents a vindication of her pragmatic leadership and confidence in her stewardship of Europe’s largest economy and of the European Union itself in the face of populist revolts, challenges from Russia and China and uncertainty created by the unpredictable policies of President Trump. “It’s important to show that it’s not normal that a neofascist party got into the German parliament,” said Dirk Schuck, 41, a political scientist at the University of Leipzig.
Ms. Merkel’s conservative bloc won 32.5 percent of the vote, according to the ARD exit poll — sharply down from 41.5 percent in 2013. While both Ms. Merkel and the Social Democrats lost significant voter support from 2013, her victory vaults her into the ranks of Konrad Adenauer and Helmut Kohl, the only postwar chancellors to win four national elections.
The Social Democrats slumped to 20.0 percent, a new post-war low, according to the exit poll, down from 25.7 percent four years ago. The election is a remarkable capstone for Ms. Merkel, 63, the first East German and the first woman to become chancellor.
If the Social Democrats hold to their intention to go into opposition, Ms. Merkel will be faced with an unusually difficult task to form a working coalition. It also represents a vindication of her pragmatic leadership and confidence in her stewardship of Europe’s largest economy and of the European Union itself in the face of populism, challenges from Russia and China and uncertainty created by the unpredictable policies of President Trump.
Given the numbers, it would seem that she will have to cobble together her own Christian Democrat-Christian Social Union bloc together with two other parties. Even so, the advance of the far right was a cold slap for her and her party. The AfD made particular inroads in the former East Germany but also in Bavaria, where Ms. Merkel’s sister party, the Christian Social Union, or CSU, has long ruled but lost some 10 percent of its vote over 2013.
The new partners inhabit virtually opposite poles on the political spectrum — the pro-business Free Democrats, who won some 10.5 percent of the vote, and the left-leaning pro-environment Greens, who won 9.5 percent, again according to the ARD exit poll. Horst Seehofer, the CSU leader, said: “We made the mistake of having the right flank open.”
The two parties have radically different views on many topics, and Ms. Merkel also will face some quiet discontent from her Bavarian-based Christian Social Union, who have regional elections next year and are worried about losing votes to the AfD. At the Christian Democrat headquarters, Frank Wexler, a Berliner, called the results “a bit depressing.” A critic of Ms. Merkel’s immigration policies, he added: “We have a vacuum on the right, we will close it with politics that ensure Germany remains Germany.”
The late leader of that party, Franz-Josef Strauss, said in 1986 that the party should allow no one to run to their right. “To the right of us there is only the wall,” he said.
Mr. Seehofer echoed that insight Sunday night. But others cautioned calm.
“We will remember today in history,” said Thomas Heilmann, a member of parliament from Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democrats, or CDU, in an email interview. “As in the U.S., hate became part of politics. The CDU cannot and must not match this attitude.”
Governing Germany “will become more difficult,” Mr. Heilmann added. “It is definitely not a good day for Germany and most likely not good for Europe either.”
Clemens Fuest, the director of IFO, the Institute for Economic Research in Munich, said that the results showed wide concern about “security, immigration and possible challenges to the German economic model, like globalization,” he said.
These mattered more than the Social Democrats’ concentration on injustice and inequality, he said.
The other parties should make less of the AfD showing “and instead ask themselves what questions they have not answered” — questions of borders, migration and the pressures on Germany to do more to prop up other countries of the European Union.
Ms. Merkel’s conservative bloc won some 32.9 percent of the vote, sharply down from 41.5 percent in 2013, the early results showed.
The Social Democrats slumped to 20.8 percent, a new postwar low, down from 25.7 percent four years ago.
If the Social Democrats hold to their intention to go into opposition, Ms. Merkel will be faced with an unusually difficult task to form a working coalition. Given the numbers, it would seem that she will have to cobble together her own Christian Democrat-Christian Social Union bloc together with two other parties.
The potential new partners inhabit virtually opposite poles on the political spectrum — the pro-business Free Democrats, who won some 10.4 percent of the vote, and the left-leaning pro-environment Greens, who won about 9 percent.
At the Christian Democrat headquarters, Frank Wexler, a Berliner, called the results “a bit depressing.”
Grand coalitions had allowed the small parties to gain ground, he said. “The main parties are getting smaller,” Mr. Wexler said. To counteract the AfD, he said, “We need to address the issue of strengthening the borders.”Grand coalitions had allowed the small parties to gain ground, he said. “The main parties are getting smaller,” Mr. Wexler said. To counteract the AfD, he said, “We need to address the issue of strengthening the borders.”
But Mr. Wexler said he was most disturbed by the AfD’s hostility to the European Union. “This is what Germany needs to do — be a strong leader in Europe.”But Mr. Wexler said he was most disturbed by the AfD’s hostility to the European Union. “This is what Germany needs to do — be a strong leader in Europe.”
Germans had been warned about the dangers of complacency in parlous times by their president, Frank-Walter Steinmeier. But Hans Kundnani, an expert on Germany with the German Marshall Fund, said that Ms. Merkel might fail to create the three-party coalition, putting the Social Democrats under great pressure to join another coalition rather than forcing new elections.
He urged them to take their civic responsibilities to heart and not sit out the vote in the face of opinion polls showing Ms. Merkel and her center-right Christian Democrats and their Bavarian allies, the Christian Social Union, with a double-digit lead over the center-left Social Democrats. To Mr. Kundnani, “the big shock is not the AfD,” but the loss of support for Ms. Merkel’s conservatives and the increasing fragmentation of German political life.
“It has perhaps never been as clear that the elections are about the future of democracy and Europe,” he wrote in the mass-market newspaper Bild am Sonntag, amid polls showing that as many as a third of Germans were undecided.
“If you don’t vote, others decide,” Mr. Steinmeier wrote.
The unspoken worry behind his intervention was the strong showing in the polls of the AfD, which began as a faction opposed to the euro currency and has morphed into an anti-immigration, anti-Islam party.
In a tweet, the Social Democrats urged people to get out and vote against the AfD, saying “a right-wing extremist party that doesn’t belong in parliament.”
Frauke Petry, an AfD chairwoman, fired back with her own tweet: “Live with it comrades, the trend to the left is over today.”
On Sunday, #gehtwaehlen, German for “Go Vote,” was trending on social media, as Germans posted images and comments about casting their ballots in an effort to urge their peers to join them.
Germany has a complicated system of proportional representation, in which each voter casts one ballot for their local representative and one ballot for a political party. Those elected locally get their seats.Germany has a complicated system of proportional representation, in which each voter casts one ballot for their local representative and one ballot for a political party. Those elected locally get their seats.
But the parties’ overall share of seats in parliament is determined by the percentage of second votes they win. But the parties’ overall share of seats in parliament is determined by the percentage of votes they win. Turnout was 75.9 percent, up from 71.5 percent in 2013, but a long way from the 90 percent turnout figures of the 1980s.
So a low turnout — it was more than 71.5 percent in 2013, less than 1 percentage point more than the record low of 70.8 percent in 2009 — clearly benefits smaller parties, whose supporters tend to be more fervent and ideological.
Turnout appeared to be roughly the same as four years ago, however — a long way from the 90 percent turnout figures of the 1980s.
Though initially reluctant to run for a fourth term, Ms. Merkel threw herself into the campaign, especially as the government has brought some order to the chaos engendered in 2015 when she threw the country’s borders open to refugees and migrants.Though initially reluctant to run for a fourth term, Ms. Merkel threw herself into the campaign, especially as the government has brought some order to the chaos engendered in 2015 when she threw the country’s borders open to refugees and migrants.
But the backlash over the migrant crisis, coupled with her long period in office and the wishy-washy nature of grand coalition politics, has led to more support for the more extreme parties like the AfD and The Left, the heir of the East German Communist Party. But the backlash over the migrant crisis, coupled with her long period in office and the wishy-washy nature of grand coalition politics, has led to more support for the more extreme, anti-European parties like the AfD and The Left, the heir of the East German Communist Party, which came in third in 2013 and won about 9 percent of the vote on Sunday.
In a separate vote in Berlin of interest to anyone who has ever flown into the city, Berliners are being asked whether to keep the small, convenient, Cold War-era airport, Tegel, even after the planned opening of the much-delayed new international airport farther from the city center town. The delays are widely mocked in Germany and abroad.
Although the referendum is nonbinding, voter support combined with numbers — this year, through July, Tegel has handled some 35 million passengers — could be enough to force politicians to reconsider its planned closing.
In Dresden, Gert Frülling, 75, a retiree, declined to divulge his party preference, but made it clear that he was sympathetic to some of the Alternative for Germany’s proposals.In Dresden, Gert Frülling, 75, a retiree, declined to divulge his party preference, but made it clear that he was sympathetic to some of the Alternative for Germany’s proposals.
“It all happened too fast,” he said, referring to the time after Germany’s reunification. “Dresden is a city of bureaucrats and soldiers, and they dumped all this multiculturalism on us at once. I know we had to change, but it should have happened more gradually.” “It all happened too fast,” he said, referring to the time after Germany’s reunification. “Dresdenis a city of bureaucrats and soldiers, and they dumped all this multiculturalism on us at once. I know we had to change, but it should have happened more gradually.”
He said it would be wrong for other parties to refuse to work with the AfD in Parliament. “If they present good ideas,” he said, “I think it’s not fair to boycott them.”He said it would be wrong for other parties to refuse to work with the AfD in Parliament. “If they present good ideas,” he said, “I think it’s not fair to boycott them.”
In Neustadt, a gentrifying area of Dresden, Rebecca Klingenburg, 20, was clearly excited to be one of an estimated three million first-time voters.In Neustadt, a gentrifying area of Dresden, Rebecca Klingenburg, 20, was clearly excited to be one of an estimated three million first-time voters.
“One gets to decide on what country one wants to live,” she said. A mechanical-engineering student, Ms. Klingenburg said she was voting to maintain Germany’s orientation toward Europe, at a time of rising nationalism.“One gets to decide on what country one wants to live,” she said. A mechanical-engineering student, Ms. Klingenburg said she was voting to maintain Germany’s orientation toward Europe, at a time of rising nationalism.
“I learned four languages in school,” she said. “I want to make sure that we stay internationally oriented.”“I learned four languages in school,” she said. “I want to make sure that we stay internationally oriented.”