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| Angela Merkel faces stark choice between coalition or minority rule | Angela Merkel faces stark choice between coalition or minority rule |
| (about 9 hours later) | |
| Germany is braced for a period of fraught and protracted coalition talks after Sunday’s elections left an unprecedented number of parties jostling for influence in the next parliament. | Germany is braced for a period of fraught and protracted coalition talks after Sunday’s elections left an unprecedented number of parties jostling for influence in the next parliament. |
| With Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, the centre-left Social Democratic party (SPD), rightwing populist Alternative für Deutschland, pro-business FDP, leftwing Die Linke and the Green party, six parties will crowd into the Bundestag’s plenary chamber, a first since the introduction of a 5% hurdle for parliamentary seats in 1953. | With Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, the centre-left Social Democratic party (SPD), rightwing populist Alternative für Deutschland, pro-business FDP, leftwing Die Linke and the Green party, six parties will crowd into the Bundestag’s plenary chamber, a first since the introduction of a 5% hurdle for parliamentary seats in 1953. |
| Having gained the largest percentage of the vote despite her party suffering its worst result since 1949, Merkel’s CDU will still need to find one or more coalition partners in order to find a governing majority, or pursue a minority government. | Having gained the largest percentage of the vote despite her party suffering its worst result since 1949, Merkel’s CDU will still need to find one or more coalition partners in order to find a governing majority, or pursue a minority government. |
| A continuation of the current “grand coalition” between the centre-right and the centre-left would have guaranteed 53% of the vote, according to exit poll projections, but was ruled out by the SPD’s lead candidate, Martin Schulz, as he conceded defeat. | A continuation of the current “grand coalition” between the centre-right and the centre-left would have guaranteed 53% of the vote, according to exit poll projections, but was ruled out by the SPD’s lead candidate, Martin Schulz, as he conceded defeat. |
| With the SPD nursing its wounds after the worst result in its postwar history, many members believe that the party can only recuperate its former energy in opposition. | |
| One regularly cited slogan in the televised debates leading up to the election was that “grand coalitions are harmful for democracy”, usually followed by a reference to Austria, where a decade of centrist coalitions has boosted the far-right Freedom party. | One regularly cited slogan in the televised debates leading up to the election was that “grand coalitions are harmful for democracy”, usually followed by a reference to Austria, where a decade of centrist coalitions has boosted the far-right Freedom party. |
| If the SPD stayed outside the cabinet it would also stop AfD from assuming the role of leader of the opposition and gaining associated parliamentary privileges. | |
| The only other option for a majority government would be a so-called “Jamaica coalition” between the CDU, the pro-business FDP and the Green party, named after the colours traditionally associated with the groups. | The only other option for a majority government would be a so-called “Jamaica coalition” between the CDU, the pro-business FDP and the Green party, named after the colours traditionally associated with the groups. |
| While such an arrangement would be a first in German history and require the Greens to bridge many differences on policy matters ranging from immigration to the car industry, many see it as a logical result of the party’s ideological transformations. | While such an arrangement would be a first in German history and require the Greens to bridge many differences on policy matters ranging from immigration to the car industry, many see it as a logical result of the party’s ideological transformations. |
| The FDP is seen as a traditional junior partner to the CDU and formed a cabinet with Merkel in her second term, yet the overlap between the liberal wing of the German conservatives and the business-friendly faction of the Greens is arguably as large as with the FDP under its strident young leader, Christian Lindner. | The FDP is seen as a traditional junior partner to the CDU and formed a cabinet with Merkel in her second term, yet the overlap between the liberal wing of the German conservatives and the business-friendly faction of the Greens is arguably as large as with the FDP under its strident young leader, Christian Lindner. |
| Informal talks between CDU and Green politicians started more than 20 years ago, when the seat of government was still in Bonn, and there a CDU-FDP-Green coalition is governing in Germany’s northernmost state, Schleswig-Holstein. | Informal talks between CDU and Green politicians started more than 20 years ago, when the seat of government was still in Bonn, and there a CDU-FDP-Green coalition is governing in Germany’s northernmost state, Schleswig-Holstein. |
| Politicians from both the FDP and the Greens have publicly dismissed the Jamaica option, and a coalition would be seen with scepticism by the Green party’s members, who lean further to the left than its leadership. “How high do you have to be?”, the newspaper Taz noted wryly in its Friday edition, emblazoned with a picture of Bob Marley smoking a joint. | Politicians from both the FDP and the Greens have publicly dismissed the Jamaica option, and a coalition would be seen with scepticism by the Green party’s members, who lean further to the left than its leadership. “How high do you have to be?”, the newspaper Taz noted wryly in its Friday edition, emblazoned with a picture of Bob Marley smoking a joint. |
| With AfD waiting to pounce on a weak government, however, both parties may discover unexpected reserves of pragmatism. In Green circles, some suggest that the ecological party should consider coalition talks if Merkel signals concessions on a number of environmental issues, such as a UK-style carbon price floor and a roadmap for phasing out coal. | With AfD waiting to pounce on a weak government, however, both parties may discover unexpected reserves of pragmatism. In Green circles, some suggest that the ecological party should consider coalition talks if Merkel signals concessions on a number of environmental issues, such as a UK-style carbon price floor and a roadmap for phasing out coal. |
| Should talks about a grand coalition or a Jamaica solution break down, Merkel could consider a minority government supported by all her three potential coalition partners. In times of crisis, she would be able to count on the FDP, the Greens and the SPD to back her – as the Social Democrats did on key votes during the eurozone crisis. | Should talks about a grand coalition or a Jamaica solution break down, Merkel could consider a minority government supported by all her three potential coalition partners. In times of crisis, she would be able to count on the FDP, the Greens and the SPD to back her – as the Social Democrats did on key votes during the eurozone crisis. |
| Speaking on TV on Sunday evening, however, Merkel appealed to rule out a minority government, saying it was her intention to “achieve a stable government in Germany”. | Speaking on TV on Sunday evening, however, Merkel appealed to rule out a minority government, saying it was her intention to “achieve a stable government in Germany”. |
| Other hypothetical coalitions, such as a leftwing alliance between the SPD, Die Linke and the Greens, would not get more than 50%. Coalition talks between the CDU and AfD have been ruled out by both parties. | Other hypothetical coalitions, such as a leftwing alliance between the SPD, Die Linke and the Greens, would not get more than 50%. Coalition talks between the CDU and AfD have been ruled out by both parties. |
| The CDU and the SPD hold the record for the longest coalition-finding period, with Merkel having been sworn in 86 days after the 2013 election. The pro-business FDP was involved in the birth of Germany’s two quickest coalitions – once with Willy Brandt’s SPD in 1969 and once with Helmut Kohl’s CDU in 1983. | The CDU and the SPD hold the record for the longest coalition-finding period, with Merkel having been sworn in 86 days after the 2013 election. The pro-business FDP was involved in the birth of Germany’s two quickest coalitions – once with Willy Brandt’s SPD in 1969 and once with Helmut Kohl’s CDU in 1983. |