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The Trump Voter Paradox The Trump Voter Paradox
(about 1 hour later)
Roy Moore’s decisive victory over Luther Strange in the Republican Senate primary runoff on Tuesday in Alabama confirms — as I have reported before — that many Republican voters have a strong sense of white identity, that they harbor high levels of racial resentment and that they sometimes exhibit authoritarian leanings.Roy Moore’s decisive victory over Luther Strange in the Republican Senate primary runoff on Tuesday in Alabama confirms — as I have reported before — that many Republican voters have a strong sense of white identity, that they harbor high levels of racial resentment and that they sometimes exhibit authoritarian leanings.
At the same time, that’s not a complete picture.At the same time, that’s not a complete picture.
A 2013 study of red and blue America, conducted well before the seismic events of the last two years, sheds additional light on the Republican electorate and provides a more complicated understanding of contemporary conservatism.A 2013 study of red and blue America, conducted well before the seismic events of the last two years, sheds additional light on the Republican electorate and provides a more complicated understanding of contemporary conservatism.
In “Divided We Stand: Three Psychological Regions of the United States and Their Political, Economic, Social, and Health Correlates,” Peter J. Rentfrow, a reader in the psychology department at the University of Cambridge, along with five co-authors, explores the results of standardized personality tests given to 1.6 million people in the United States from 1999 to 2010.In “Divided We Stand: Three Psychological Regions of the United States and Their Political, Economic, Social, and Health Correlates,” Peter J. Rentfrow, a reader in the psychology department at the University of Cambridge, along with five co-authors, explores the results of standardized personality tests given to 1.6 million people in the United States from 1999 to 2010.
The Rentfrow paper breaks the country into three “psychological regions” and ranks each region on personality dimensions known as the big five traits: extroversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism and openness to experience.The Rentfrow paper breaks the country into three “psychological regions” and ranks each region on personality dimensions known as the big five traits: extroversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism and openness to experience.
The most conservative and most Republican of the three psychological regions — which Rentfrow labels “Cluster 1: Friendly and Conventional” — extends across the northern tier of the United State from Montana to Michigan, down through the Midwest to almost all of the South for a total of 26 states. The accompanying map shows the region in shades of purple. The most conservative and most Republican of the three psychological regions — which Rentfrow labels “Cluster 1: Friendly and Conventional” — extends across the northern tier of the United States from Montana to Michigan, down through the Midwest to almost all of the South for a total of 26 states. The accompanying map shows the region in shades of purple.
Rentfrow found that the Cluster 1 region isRentfrow found that the Cluster 1 region is
Rentfrow and his co-authors write that the regionRentfrow and his co-authors write that the region
and thatand that
I asked a number of experts in political psychology what they thought about the Rentfrow paper, and their answers ran the gamut from those who support a more empathetic portrayal of Republican voters to those who are adamant in their view that authoritarianism remains a dominant characteristic of those on the right.I asked a number of experts in political psychology what they thought about the Rentfrow paper, and their answers ran the gamut from those who support a more empathetic portrayal of Republican voters to those who are adamant in their view that authoritarianism remains a dominant characteristic of those on the right.
I started with Rentfrow himself. My question went as follows:I started with Rentfrow himself. My question went as follows:
Rentfrow replied thatRentfrow replied that
Many whites in the South, he argued, abide by an “honor culture.” As longMany whites in the South, he argued, abide by an “honor culture.” As long
In this sense, Roy Moore, who brandished a gun on the campaign trail, fits in with Rentfrow’s description of the link between violence and a culture of honor in the South. It’s worth noting that after winning the primary Moore picked up a strong endorsement from President Trump.In this sense, Roy Moore, who brandished a gun on the campaign trail, fits in with Rentfrow’s description of the link between violence and a culture of honor in the South. It’s worth noting that after winning the primary Moore picked up a strong endorsement from President Trump.
Karen Stenner, the author of “The Authoritarian Dynamic,” pointed out that the Rentfrow study found that red state voters were simultaneously “friendly” and less “socially tolerant.”Karen Stenner, the author of “The Authoritarian Dynamic,” pointed out that the Rentfrow study found that red state voters were simultaneously “friendly” and less “socially tolerant.”
Stenner explained this seeming contradiction by noting thatStenner explained this seeming contradiction by noting that
John Jost, a professor of psychology and politics at N.Y.U., expands upon the implications of the word “conscientiousness” in describing red state voters:John Jost, a professor of psychology and politics at N.Y.U., expands upon the implications of the word “conscientiousness” in describing red state voters:
In the opposite corner from Jost, Marc Hetherington, a political scientist at Vanderbilt and a co-author of the 2009 book “Authoritarianism and Polarization in American Politics,” said he has abandoned use of the word “authoritarian” because he views it as excessively pejorative. In place of authoritarian, Hetherington said he will now use the phrase “fixed worldview.”In the opposite corner from Jost, Marc Hetherington, a political scientist at Vanderbilt and a co-author of the 2009 book “Authoritarianism and Polarization in American Politics,” said he has abandoned use of the word “authoritarian” because he views it as excessively pejorative. In place of authoritarian, Hetherington said he will now use the phrase “fixed worldview.”
“The adherence to established traditions, what scholars derisively call conventionalism, is very much a characteristic of high conscientiousness,” Hetherington wrote:“The adherence to established traditions, what scholars derisively call conventionalism, is very much a characteristic of high conscientiousness,” Hetherington wrote:
Hetherington added a cautionary note:Hetherington added a cautionary note:
Jonathan Haidt, a social psychologist at N.Y.U.’s Stern School of Business, raised a crucial if obvious point: Primary season Trump voters do not represent all Republican voters.Jonathan Haidt, a social psychologist at N.Y.U.’s Stern School of Business, raised a crucial if obvious point: Primary season Trump voters do not represent all Republican voters.
Haidt cited an essay that he and Emily Ekins, the director of polling at the Cato Institute, published in February 2016, “Donald Trump supporters think about morality differently than other voters.” In contrast to Republican primary voters who supported candidates other than Trump, they noted, voters who supported him “score high on authority/loyalty/sanctity and low on care.” These voters, according to Ekins and Haidt, “are the true authoritarians — they value obedience while scoring low on compassion.”Haidt cited an essay that he and Emily Ekins, the director of polling at the Cato Institute, published in February 2016, “Donald Trump supporters think about morality differently than other voters.” In contrast to Republican primary voters who supported candidates other than Trump, they noted, voters who supported him “score high on authority/loyalty/sanctity and low on care.” These voters, according to Ekins and Haidt, “are the true authoritarians — they value obedience while scoring low on compassion.”
Matt Motyl, a political psychologist at the University of Illinois at Chicago, argued in an email that in the general election, theMatt Motyl, a political psychologist at the University of Illinois at Chicago, argued in an email that in the general election, the
There is, however, a subset of Trump supporters “who are extraordinarily vocal in their intolerance and white nationalism,” according to Motyl. These activists have become “the template of the stereotype of Trump voters,” he wrote. “As is the case for many stereotypes,” he added, “there is a grain of truth, but the grain of truth is just that — a grain.”There is, however, a subset of Trump supporters “who are extraordinarily vocal in their intolerance and white nationalism,” according to Motyl. These activists have become “the template of the stereotype of Trump voters,” he wrote. “As is the case for many stereotypes,” he added, “there is a grain of truth, but the grain of truth is just that — a grain.”
In fact, authoritarian voters with a sense of besieged white identity are more than a “grain” in the Republican electorate.In fact, authoritarian voters with a sense of besieged white identity are more than a “grain” in the Republican electorate.
There were enough of them to provide the hard-core base of support to Trump at the start of the Republican primaries, a base that proved large enough to give Trump pluralities in the early contests.There were enough of them to provide the hard-core base of support to Trump at the start of the Republican primaries, a base that proved large enough to give Trump pluralities in the early contests.
And the clout of the authoritarian, white identity wing of the Republican Party is such that Trump is governing to please this wing first and foremost.And the clout of the authoritarian, white identity wing of the Republican Party is such that Trump is governing to please this wing first and foremost.
From his apocalyptic threats to Kim Jong-un to his call for the firing of protesting N.F.L. players, from his pardon of Joe Arpaio to his defense of pro-Nazi protesters in Charlottesville, Trump has remained the leader of hard-right, white America.From his apocalyptic threats to Kim Jong-un to his call for the firing of protesting N.F.L. players, from his pardon of Joe Arpaio to his defense of pro-Nazi protesters in Charlottesville, Trump has remained the leader of hard-right, white America.
This strategy won him the presidency in 2016 when millions of non-authoritarian white Republicans — sympathetic, kind, affectionate, conscientiousness, persevering, thorough and reliable — made a pact with the devil and chose party loyalty over conscience. Who’s to say it won’t work again?This strategy won him the presidency in 2016 when millions of non-authoritarian white Republicans — sympathetic, kind, affectionate, conscientiousness, persevering, thorough and reliable — made a pact with the devil and chose party loyalty over conscience. Who’s to say it won’t work again?