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| Ukip has picked a new Farage, keeping its darker side hidden – for now | Ukip has picked a new Farage, keeping its darker side hidden – for now |
| (4 months later) | |
| Sun 1 Oct 2017 18.03 BST | |
| Last modified on Sun 1 Oct 2017 22.11 BST | |
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| The unpredicted victory for Henry Bolton in the Ukip leadership contest had even seasoned observers asking, “Henry Who?” But the clear margin for the candidate – who came across in many ways as closest in priorities and tone to Nigel Farage – leaves the party still just inside the UK political mainstream, with its focus on Brexit intact. Whether it will now be more of the same – or rather, more of the same as it was before the party’s troubled post-referendum year – is another matter. | The unpredicted victory for Henry Bolton in the Ukip leadership contest had even seasoned observers asking, “Henry Who?” But the clear margin for the candidate – who came across in many ways as closest in priorities and tone to Nigel Farage – leaves the party still just inside the UK political mainstream, with its focus on Brexit intact. Whether it will now be more of the same – or rather, more of the same as it was before the party’s troubled post-referendum year – is another matter. |
| In his first formal address to the party faithful, Bolton coupled a focus on making sure there would be no government backsliding on Brexit with sharp attacks on what he saw as excessive migration and the cultural harm he said it was inflicting. He might have stepped back from past Ukip pledges of a cap or even a moratorium on net migration, preferring the old chestnut of an Australian-style points system, but hostility to migration was a prominent theme. | In his first formal address to the party faithful, Bolton coupled a focus on making sure there would be no government backsliding on Brexit with sharp attacks on what he saw as excessive migration and the cultural harm he said it was inflicting. He might have stepped back from past Ukip pledges of a cap or even a moratorium on net migration, preferring the old chestnut of an Australian-style points system, but hostility to migration was a prominent theme. |
| The CV of the former Liberal Democrat, former policeman and former army officer – who quoted the Sandhurst motto, “serve to lead”, in his victory speech – suggests that he might have at least a chance of restoring some measure of cohesion to Ukip, something it surely needs after welcoming its fourth leader in a year. And he made a point of emphasising organisation and structure – what might be seen as the boring nuts and bolts. | The CV of the former Liberal Democrat, former policeman and former army officer – who quoted the Sandhurst motto, “serve to lead”, in his victory speech – suggests that he might have at least a chance of restoring some measure of cohesion to Ukip, something it surely needs after welcoming its fourth leader in a year. And he made a point of emphasising organisation and structure – what might be seen as the boring nuts and bolts. |
| The attention he paid, alongside Brexit, to migration and culture suggested more than a nod to the campaign conducted by the runner-up for the leadership, Anne Marie Waters, despite the nine percentage points that separated them. Even if party members, or those who voted, have resisted her anti-Islam platform for now, Bolton’s words hint that her message carried seductive force. | The attention he paid, alongside Brexit, to migration and culture suggested more than a nod to the campaign conducted by the runner-up for the leadership, Anne Marie Waters, despite the nine percentage points that separated them. Even if party members, or those who voted, have resisted her anti-Islam platform for now, Bolton’s words hint that her message carried seductive force. |
| So while a big majority of Ukippers opted for the sense of continuity offered by Bolton – or more accurately, perhaps, the return to pre-Brexit Farage-ism he appeared to offer – this may not last. Waters’ candidacy fed off a strand of xenophobia that runs through Ukip’s support. The question now is how far and fast that generic xenophobia, reflecting to a large degree English cultural nationalism, might develop into a specifically anti-Islam agenda. | So while a big majority of Ukippers opted for the sense of continuity offered by Bolton – or more accurately, perhaps, the return to pre-Brexit Farage-ism he appeared to offer – this may not last. Waters’ candidacy fed off a strand of xenophobia that runs through Ukip’s support. The question now is how far and fast that generic xenophobia, reflecting to a large degree English cultural nationalism, might develop into a specifically anti-Islam agenda. |
| Waters received only 21% – fewer than 3,000 votes – from members of a party that attracted only 1.8% of the vote at the last general election. The main concern of Ukip members still appears to be Europe, and that familiar slogan “taking back control”. | Waters received only 21% – fewer than 3,000 votes – from members of a party that attracted only 1.8% of the vote at the last general election. The main concern of Ukip members still appears to be Europe, and that familiar slogan “taking back control”. |
| It is worth adding that the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system makes it hard for minority parties to win parliamentary representation. An Alternative for Germany scenario, for instance, would be nigh impossible here. | It is worth adding that the UK’s first-past-the-post electoral system makes it hard for minority parties to win parliamentary representation. An Alternative for Germany scenario, for instance, would be nigh impossible here. |
| On the other hand – as Bolton appeared to acknowledge – the votes for Waters should not be dismissed too lightly. She took second place, after all, on a very clear platform that vilified a particular faith group, in a country that prides itself on tolerance and the freedom for individuals to worship, select their schools, and dress as they choose. | On the other hand – as Bolton appeared to acknowledge – the votes for Waters should not be dismissed too lightly. She took second place, after all, on a very clear platform that vilified a particular faith group, in a country that prides itself on tolerance and the freedom for individuals to worship, select their schools, and dress as they choose. |
| And while her defeat means that the mass defections from Ukip that were likely in the event of her victory will be avoided, and pre-empts Farage’s threat to set up a new party, she has demonstrated that there is an audience for overt opposition to Islam when it is presented in a strictly political context, rather than on the streets by a group such as the English Defence League. | And while her defeat means that the mass defections from Ukip that were likely in the event of her victory will be avoided, and pre-empts Farage’s threat to set up a new party, she has demonstrated that there is an audience for overt opposition to Islam when it is presented in a strictly political context, rather than on the streets by a group such as the English Defence League. |
| Much will depend now on Bolton’s performance as Ukip leader. At least as much, though, will depend on the way British politics evolves in the short term. It may be that – if the progress of Brexit starts to stall more than it already has – Ukip will return to its anti-EU roots and become the natural home for frustrated Brexiteers. If not, however, it may find itself looking for other causes, and then the question arises as to whether classic libertarianism, a la Farage, with a dash of all-purpose xenophobia, will be sustenance enough. | Much will depend now on Bolton’s performance as Ukip leader. At least as much, though, will depend on the way British politics evolves in the short term. It may be that – if the progress of Brexit starts to stall more than it already has – Ukip will return to its anti-EU roots and become the natural home for frustrated Brexiteers. If not, however, it may find itself looking for other causes, and then the question arises as to whether classic libertarianism, a la Farage, with a dash of all-purpose xenophobia, will be sustenance enough. |
| By then, Waters, or someone else with a similar agenda, might have organised themselves more effectively – through extra-parliamentary groupings, say, such as Waters’ own Pegida – and be ready to swoop on a debilitated Ukip. An anti-Islam platform could then be an even more tempting sideline for a party that had failed to regain support after the Brexit referendum and was searching for a new reason to exist. | By then, Waters, or someone else with a similar agenda, might have organised themselves more effectively – through extra-parliamentary groupings, say, such as Waters’ own Pegida – and be ready to swoop on a debilitated Ukip. An anti-Islam platform could then be an even more tempting sideline for a party that had failed to regain support after the Brexit referendum and was searching for a new reason to exist. |
| • Mary Dejevsky is a writer, broadcaster and former foreign correspondent | • Mary Dejevsky is a writer, broadcaster and former foreign correspondent |
| UK Independence party (Ukip) | |
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| Nigel Farage | |
| Religion | |
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