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| Version 0 | Version 1 |
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| Australians fear North Korea standoff will lead to war – Guardian Essential poll | Australians fear North Korea standoff will lead to war – Guardian Essential poll |
| (4 months later) | |
| More than half concerned the nuclear brinkmanship will lead to all-out conflict, with women more pessimistic than men | |
| Katharine Murphy Political editor | |
| Mon 9 Oct 2017 18.00 BST | |
| Last modified on Mon 9 Oct 2017 18.01 BST | |
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| Australians are concerned that the current standoff between the United States and North Korea will lead to all-out military confrontation, with 55% fearing that outcome, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll. | Australians are concerned that the current standoff between the United States and North Korea will lead to all-out military confrontation, with 55% fearing that outcome, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll. |
| With Donald Trump copping public criticism from a prominent fellow Republican, Senator Bob Corker, about putting America “on the path to world war three” by acting with North Korea “like he’s doing The Apprentice or something” – the latest poll shows more than half the sample of 1,846 voters think current tensions on the peninsula will end in war. | With Donald Trump copping public criticism from a prominent fellow Republican, Senator Bob Corker, about putting America “on the path to world war three” by acting with North Korea “like he’s doing The Apprentice or something” – the latest poll shows more than half the sample of 1,846 voters think current tensions on the peninsula will end in war. |
| Asked about the likelihood of war between North Korea and the US, 16% of the sample thought it very likely, 39% thought it somewhat likely, 24% thought it somewhat unlikely and 12% very unlikely. | Asked about the likelihood of war between North Korea and the US, 16% of the sample thought it very likely, 39% thought it somewhat likely, 24% thought it somewhat unlikely and 12% very unlikely. |
| Women were more pessimistic about the brinkmanship leading to war than men – 61% compared with 49%. People over 55 were less likely than younger people to believe war likely. | Women were more pessimistic about the brinkmanship leading to war than men – 61% compared with 49%. People over 55 were less likely than younger people to believe war likely. |
| Voters also ranked terrorism top of their current concerns about their personal safety, followed by a car accident and nuclear warfare. Next on the list was catastrophic climate change, natural disasters and gang violence, with family violence the last point on the list. | Voters also ranked terrorism top of their current concerns about their personal safety, followed by a car accident and nuclear warfare. Next on the list was catastrophic climate change, natural disasters and gang violence, with family violence the last point on the list. |
| Debate about Australia’s counter-terrorism framework dominated national politics last week, with leaders reaching agreement to allow real-time facial biometric matching and to hold terror suspects as young as 10 years old for 14 days without charge. | Debate about Australia’s counter-terrorism framework dominated national politics last week, with leaders reaching agreement to allow real-time facial biometric matching and to hold terror suspects as young as 10 years old for 14 days without charge. |
| In the latest weekly survey, Liberal/National voters were more likely to be concerned about terrorism (40%) and Greens voters more concerned about climate change (23%). | In the latest weekly survey, Liberal/National voters were more likely to be concerned about terrorism (40%) and Greens voters more concerned about climate change (23%). |
| The Guardian Essential poll has Labor retaining its election-winning lead over Malcolm Turnbull’s Coalition government, with the ALP ahead on the two-party preferred measure 54% to 46% – the same result as last week. | The Guardian Essential poll has Labor retaining its election-winning lead over Malcolm Turnbull’s Coalition government, with the ALP ahead on the two-party preferred measure 54% to 46% – the same result as last week. |
| While Labor is well in front, Turnbull achieved his best net approval rating since June last year, and his highest approval figure since March last year, with 42% approval of the job he is doing as prime minister and 43% disapproval (which is down 3% in a month). | While Labor is well in front, Turnbull achieved his best net approval rating since June last year, and his highest approval figure since March last year, with 42% approval of the job he is doing as prime minister and 43% disapproval (which is down 3% in a month). |
| Coalition voters are strongly behind Turnbull, with 74% (down 1%), approving of his performance in the top job. | Coalition voters are strongly behind Turnbull, with 74% (down 1%), approving of his performance in the top job. |
| Bill Shorten’s disapproval rating also fell three points in a month to 47%, and 37% of the sample approved of his performance as leader of the opposition. | Bill Shorten’s disapproval rating also fell three points in a month to 47%, and 37% of the sample approved of his performance as leader of the opposition. |
| A majority of Labor voters back Shorten’s performance (64%), down 1%. | A majority of Labor voters back Shorten’s performance (64%), down 1%. |
| Turnbull led Shorten on the better prime minister measure, 42% to 28%, with 31% of the sample undecided. | Turnbull led Shorten on the better prime minister measure, 42% to 28%, with 31% of the sample undecided. |
| People made their judgment largely along partisan lines, with 79% of Coalition voters saying Turnbull would be a better prime minister, and 56% of Labor voters saying Shorten would. Greens voters prefer Shorten to Turnbull (41% to 29%). | People made their judgment largely along partisan lines, with 79% of Coalition voters saying Turnbull would be a better prime minister, and 56% of Labor voters saying Shorten would. Greens voters prefer Shorten to Turnbull (41% to 29%). |
| Both men and women prefer Turnbull to Shorten, with 46% of men preferring Turnbull and 31% preferring Shorten, and 37% (to 25%) of women preferring Turnbull to the Labor leader as prime minister. | Both men and women prefer Turnbull to Shorten, with 46% of men preferring Turnbull and 31% preferring Shorten, and 37% (to 25%) of women preferring Turnbull to the Labor leader as prime minister. |
| Voters were also asked which political party best represented the interests of various groups in society. | Voters were also asked which political party best represented the interests of various groups in society. |
| The Labor party scored highly on representing the interests of working people on low incomes, representing people on welfare, students, workers on average incomes and pensioners. | The Labor party scored highly on representing the interests of working people on low incomes, representing people on welfare, students, workers on average incomes and pensioners. |
| The Liberal party was considered best at representing the interests of big business and working people on high incomes. | The Liberal party was considered best at representing the interests of big business and working people on high incomes. |
| Families with children believe the Labor party best represents their interests (50% to 24%). People aged between 18 and 24 believe the ALP best represents the interests of students (52% to 16%). | Families with children believe the Labor party best represents their interests (50% to 24%). People aged between 18 and 24 believe the ALP best represents the interests of students (52% to 16%). |
| Full-time workers thought Labor was better at representing the interests of workers on average incomes (47% to 28%). | Full-time workers thought Labor was better at representing the interests of workers on average incomes (47% to 28%). |
| People on high incomes were more likely to believe the Liberal party better represented the interests of workers on high incomes (65% to 14%). | People on high incomes were more likely to believe the Liberal party better represented the interests of workers on high incomes (65% to 14%). |
| The over 65s were more likely to think Labor represented the interests of pensioners better than the Coalition. | The over 65s were more likely to think Labor represented the interests of pensioners better than the Coalition. |
| Essential poll | |
| The Guardian Essential Report | |
| Australian security and counter-terrorism | |
| North Korea | |
| Asia Pacific | |
| Australian politics | |
| Coalition | |
| news | |
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