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| A new cabinet won’t save Theresa May. Brexit has doomed her | A new cabinet won’t save Theresa May. Brexit has doomed her |
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| Forget about a lost voice and a backdrop to a stage falling apart. Last week’s Conservative conference is ancient history. It is Europe that torments Theresa May and will bring her down, as it was Europe that triggered her rise to the top. With the Conservative party, it is always Europe. During her statement to the Commons on Monday afternoon her demeanour was impressively calm and stable, but the evasive and contorted content pointed to impossible storms ahead. | Forget about a lost voice and a backdrop to a stage falling apart. Last week’s Conservative conference is ancient history. It is Europe that torments Theresa May and will bring her down, as it was Europe that triggered her rise to the top. With the Conservative party, it is always Europe. During her statement to the Commons on Monday afternoon her demeanour was impressively calm and stable, but the evasive and contorted content pointed to impossible storms ahead. |
| The dynamic is familiar, like a recurring nightmare. Once again a desperate prime minister tries to please a party that is impossible to please. With all the hourly twists and turns, let us not forget the wider, deadly context. David Cameron resigned over Europe, and within days May was prime minister, walking on water, way ahead in the polls. Like Cameron she became weak because of Europe, calling an early election partly to secure a bigger majority for her multi-layered Brexit negotiations. Now she stumbles towards her final phase unable to deliver a Brexit that will unite her party. She is the fourth successive Conservative prime minister in despair over her party and Europe. | The dynamic is familiar, like a recurring nightmare. Once again a desperate prime minister tries to please a party that is impossible to please. With all the hourly twists and turns, let us not forget the wider, deadly context. David Cameron resigned over Europe, and within days May was prime minister, walking on water, way ahead in the polls. Like Cameron she became weak because of Europe, calling an early election partly to secure a bigger majority for her multi-layered Brexit negotiations. Now she stumbles towards her final phase unable to deliver a Brexit that will unite her party. She is the fourth successive Conservative prime minister in despair over her party and Europe. |
| John Major was the second. He wrote an article at the weekend pleading for the “self-absorbed” critics to stop. He knows a thing or two about his party’s capacity to make leadership a form of hell. Even during the 1997 election campaign, when he was facing a slaughter, he was forced to plead with his party not to “bind my hands” over a forthcoming EU summit. | John Major was the second. He wrote an article at the weekend pleading for the “self-absorbed” critics to stop. He knows a thing or two about his party’s capacity to make leadership a form of hell. Even during the 1997 election campaign, when he was facing a slaughter, he was forced to plead with his party not to “bind my hands” over a forthcoming EU summit. |
| May’s hands are already bound. All the familiar traps are in place, the speculation about a reshuffle being the most toxic. Here the media fuels the frenzy as well as reporting it. Every cabinet minister is asked whether there should be a reshuffle, and specifically whether Boris Johnson should be sacked, as if one of them might say yes. The cue is getting repetitive: “Joining me now is Michael Gove to talk about elephants and the ivory trade … but first should the prime minister sack Boris Johnson?” | May’s hands are already bound. All the familiar traps are in place, the speculation about a reshuffle being the most toxic. Here the media fuels the frenzy as well as reporting it. Every cabinet minister is asked whether there should be a reshuffle, and specifically whether Boris Johnson should be sacked, as if one of them might say yes. The cue is getting repetitive: “Joining me now is Michael Gove to talk about elephants and the ivory trade … but first should the prime minister sack Boris Johnson?” |
| The framing is near-fatal. If she does not make a move she will be seen as “weak”. If she acts, the energy-sapping consequences will destabilise her further. Ask Major, who sacked his loyal but unpopular chancellor Norman Lamont, only to discover that all the disdain transferred to him. A prime minister showing “strength” in an attempt to disguise weakness becomes weaker still. Most reshuffles make no difference to a prime minister’s fate. Some make the situation much worse. | The framing is near-fatal. If she does not make a move she will be seen as “weak”. If she acts, the energy-sapping consequences will destabilise her further. Ask Major, who sacked his loyal but unpopular chancellor Norman Lamont, only to discover that all the disdain transferred to him. A prime minister showing “strength” in an attempt to disguise weakness becomes weaker still. Most reshuffles make no difference to a prime minister’s fate. Some make the situation much worse. |
| If Johnson were to return to the backbenches he would no doubt fantasise that he is the equivalent of Winston Churchill in the late 1930s. Except that his stance is the precise opposite of Churchill’s was then. Churchill dared to take the unfashionable view in his party, warning resolutely that appeasement would lead to catastrophe. The equivalent now would be a big figure challenging his or her party, declaring unfashionably that Brexit is leading the country towards the cliff’s edge. Who in the cabinet dares to say what they know – even if it means that, like Churchill, they roar from the backbenches until vindication comes? | If Johnson were to return to the backbenches he would no doubt fantasise that he is the equivalent of Winston Churchill in the late 1930s. Except that his stance is the precise opposite of Churchill’s was then. Churchill dared to take the unfashionable view in his party, warning resolutely that appeasement would lead to catastrophe. The equivalent now would be a big figure challenging his or her party, declaring unfashionably that Brexit is leading the country towards the cliff’s edge. Who in the cabinet dares to say what they know – even if it means that, like Churchill, they roar from the backbenches until vindication comes? |
| There would be no such roar in a leadership contest, one that would take place in the shadow of Europe as every Tory contest has done since 1997. Cameron sealed his fate by appeasing Eurosceptics, proposing to take the Conservatives out of the centre-right group in the European parliament. Ken Clarke was much the most popular Tory in the country after their 1997 election defeat. He could not be leader because of Europe. Now we face the prospect of the next prime minister being selected by a declining membership of elderly voters, most of whom are pro-Brexit. Such a contest will not be the time for hard truths, but more fantasies about the joys of a hard Brexit. | There would be no such roar in a leadership contest, one that would take place in the shadow of Europe as every Tory contest has done since 1997. Cameron sealed his fate by appeasing Eurosceptics, proposing to take the Conservatives out of the centre-right group in the European parliament. Ken Clarke was much the most popular Tory in the country after their 1997 election defeat. He could not be leader because of Europe. Now we face the prospect of the next prime minister being selected by a declining membership of elderly voters, most of whom are pro-Brexit. Such a contest will not be the time for hard truths, but more fantasies about the joys of a hard Brexit. |
| Already the contest is being spoken of as if it is a beauty parade, ripped out of context. Ruth Davidson is exuberant, witty, a liberal Tory in every respect. But how would she manage to lead this party over Europe, even post-Brexit as economic crises deepen, if with a magical leap she could descend from Holyrood and take over? She would be tormented too, like Neil Kinnock, who was also lively and charming before he became leader of an unleadable Labour party in 1983 – after which he soon sank to the depths of despair. For years there were few laughs to be heard. | Already the contest is being spoken of as if it is a beauty parade, ripped out of context. Ruth Davidson is exuberant, witty, a liberal Tory in every respect. But how would she manage to lead this party over Europe, even post-Brexit as economic crises deepen, if with a magical leap she could descend from Holyrood and take over? She would be tormented too, like Neil Kinnock, who was also lively and charming before he became leader of an unleadable Labour party in 1983 – after which he soon sank to the depths of despair. For years there were few laughs to be heard. |
| There would be few laughs for Davidson or any other successor to May just as there are few laughs for the current prime minister. In her woolly statement to the Commons on Monday afternoon she spoke again of her wish for a “unique and ambitious partnership” with the EU, but said nothing more specific. Speaking of the transitional period of “around two years”, she declared that businesses and other institutions would “continue to operate as they do today” – and yet the UK would be outside the single market and the customs union. How is this going to work? It was an act of unforgivable recklessness to trigger article 50 without a clue as to what would follow. Somewhat sheepishly May uttered the words briefed in advance that this “ball is in the EU’s court”, but the shape of the ball is not clear. Amid all the uncertainty, one thing is for sure: machismo does not work. | |
| Even before May made her statement, the Conservative MP Bernard Jenkin told the BBC that she would be ”cheered to the rafters” by MPs if she returned from the next EU summit having walked out or having “called time”, as he put it in the Commons. The appetite for “no deal” is growing among some Conservative MPs and yet there is no majority for such a disastrously chaotic outcome in the Commons. What happens if she makes concessions to get a deal? What happens if she gets no deal? A prime minister leading a minority government inevitably faces tough challenges, but nothing like this. | Even before May made her statement, the Conservative MP Bernard Jenkin told the BBC that she would be ”cheered to the rafters” by MPs if she returned from the next EU summit having walked out or having “called time”, as he put it in the Commons. The appetite for “no deal” is growing among some Conservative MPs and yet there is no majority for such a disastrously chaotic outcome in the Commons. What happens if she makes concessions to get a deal? What happens if she gets no deal? A prime minister leading a minority government inevitably faces tough challenges, but nothing like this. |
| The last prime minister who was cheered to the rafters by his MPs was David Cameron, after he returned to the Commons from his Bloomberg speech in January 2013 announcing the referendum. Fleetingly he thought that he had tamed his tormentors. In reality he was striding towards his doom. May was dignified and stoical in her conference speech. She began her leadership with some interesting ideas. It does not matter. Europe propels her towards her doom. | The last prime minister who was cheered to the rafters by his MPs was David Cameron, after he returned to the Commons from his Bloomberg speech in January 2013 announcing the referendum. Fleetingly he thought that he had tamed his tormentors. In reality he was striding towards his doom. May was dignified and stoical in her conference speech. She began her leadership with some interesting ideas. It does not matter. Europe propels her towards her doom. |
| • Steve Richards is a political commentator and author of The Rise of the Outsiders | • Steve Richards is a political commentator and author of The Rise of the Outsiders |