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| Invincible no more, Nicola Sturgeon will have to go back to basics | Invincible no more, Nicola Sturgeon will have to go back to basics |
| (about 1 month later) | |
| Just two years ago Nicola Sturgeon seemed invincible. As she took over from Alex Salmond as leader of the SNP following the 2014 independence referendum, thousands of new recruits flocked to the Scottish nationalist cause, turning defeat into victory. In November 2014 she sold out the 12,000-seat Glasgow SSE Hydro, a week after Lady Gaga had done the same. | Just two years ago Nicola Sturgeon seemed invincible. As she took over from Alex Salmond as leader of the SNP following the 2014 independence referendum, thousands of new recruits flocked to the Scottish nationalist cause, turning defeat into victory. In November 2014 she sold out the 12,000-seat Glasgow SSE Hydro, a week after Lady Gaga had done the same. |
| The Sturgeon tsunami kept on rolling through 2015. In that year’s general election, she was the face of the SNP landslide that captured 56 out of 59 Scottish seats, all but obliterating Labour as well as the Tories and Liberal Democrats north of the border. “If only we could vote for her too,” was a common refrain in radical parts of England. | The Sturgeon tsunami kept on rolling through 2015. In that year’s general election, she was the face of the SNP landslide that captured 56 out of 59 Scottish seats, all but obliterating Labour as well as the Tories and Liberal Democrats north of the border. “If only we could vote for her too,” was a common refrain in radical parts of England. |
| But what goes up can also come down, and political popularity is a volatile business. Today, as Sturgeon prepares to address the SNP conference in the Clydeside conference centre across the road from the Hydro, some of the shine has come off. At the weekend a hostile commentator even wrote that Sturgeon might face a prankster thrusting a P45 into her hand, as happened to Theresa May last week. | But what goes up can also come down, and political popularity is a volatile business. Today, as Sturgeon prepares to address the SNP conference in the Clydeside conference centre across the road from the Hydro, some of the shine has come off. At the weekend a hostile commentator even wrote that Sturgeon might face a prankster thrusting a P45 into her hand, as happened to Theresa May last week. |
| That comparison is absurd. May’s reputation has gone head over heels downwards. Sturgeon’s, by contrast, has suffered nothing worse than an embarrassing slide. Her job approval ratings in Scotland, once so high, are now exactly even: 46% think she is doing a good job, 46% disagree. But the slide is significant all the same. It leaves Sturgeon’s ratings well adrift of this year’s cult politicians, Jeremy Corbyn on the left and Ruth Davidson on the right. | That comparison is absurd. May’s reputation has gone head over heels downwards. Sturgeon’s, by contrast, has suffered nothing worse than an embarrassing slide. Her job approval ratings in Scotland, once so high, are now exactly even: 46% think she is doing a good job, 46% disagree. But the slide is significant all the same. It leaves Sturgeon’s ratings well adrift of this year’s cult politicians, Jeremy Corbyn on the left and Ruth Davidson on the right. |
| So Sturgeon has much hard work to do, starting today, if her eventual political fate is not to be as the manager of another chapter in the SNP’s gradual decline from the heady heights of 2011-15. This week’s conference has seemed to understand that. Though SNP gatherings are never less than enthusiastic, the rhetoric in Glasgow has been the most markedly toned down for several years. Last year, Sturgeon spoke from a rostrum whose slogan – in place throughout her speech – was a chest-thumping “Stronger for Scotland”. This year, the slogan consists of a single word: “Progress”. | So Sturgeon has much hard work to do, starting today, if her eventual political fate is not to be as the manager of another chapter in the SNP’s gradual decline from the heady heights of 2011-15. This week’s conference has seemed to understand that. Though SNP gatherings are never less than enthusiastic, the rhetoric in Glasgow has been the most markedly toned down for several years. Last year, Sturgeon spoke from a rostrum whose slogan – in place throughout her speech – was a chest-thumping “Stronger for Scotland”. This year, the slogan consists of a single word: “Progress”. |
| Last year, Sturgeon spoke from a rostrum whose slogan was a chest-thumping ‘Stronger for Scotland' | Last year, Sturgeon spoke from a rostrum whose slogan was a chest-thumping ‘Stronger for Scotland' |
| That’s a spectacular shift in nationalist tone. “Progress” is the sort of claim centrist reformist parties make, but most SNP members would as readily support England in a football match as agree to call themselves middle of the road. The language is part of a deliberate attempt by the SNP hierarchy around Sturgeon to focus this year on the realities of governing, not on the buzz of insurgency. The conference agenda lists dozens of policy achievements – some of them spurious, others no more than aspirations – on its cover in a manner that would have made New Labour blush. It’s almost as if the SNP has decided to perform against type and have a go at being boring. If that’s so, there are probably three reasons why. | That’s a spectacular shift in nationalist tone. “Progress” is the sort of claim centrist reformist parties make, but most SNP members would as readily support England in a football match as agree to call themselves middle of the road. The language is part of a deliberate attempt by the SNP hierarchy around Sturgeon to focus this year on the realities of governing, not on the buzz of insurgency. The conference agenda lists dozens of policy achievements – some of them spurious, others no more than aspirations – on its cover in a manner that would have made New Labour blush. It’s almost as if the SNP has decided to perform against type and have a go at being boring. If that’s so, there are probably three reasons why. |
| The first is that Sturgeon and her party hopelessly overplayed the campaign for a second independence vote. Sturgeon misread the Scottish mood by assuming that Scotland’s 2:1 remain vote in the EU poll could be leveraged into a demand for a second referendum on breaking with the UK. June’s general election, when the SNP lost a quarter of its votes and 21 of its 56 seats, put an end to that. Scottish opinion is currently 58% to 42% against a second referendum at any time in the next five years (that is, well past the 2021 Holyrood election) and 56% to 44% against independence. So the SNP is sensibly heeding Davidson’s call to get back to the day job of governing. | The first is that Sturgeon and her party hopelessly overplayed the campaign for a second independence vote. Sturgeon misread the Scottish mood by assuming that Scotland’s 2:1 remain vote in the EU poll could be leveraged into a demand for a second referendum on breaking with the UK. June’s general election, when the SNP lost a quarter of its votes and 21 of its 56 seats, put an end to that. Scottish opinion is currently 58% to 42% against a second referendum at any time in the next five years (that is, well past the 2021 Holyrood election) and 56% to 44% against independence. So the SNP is sensibly heeding Davidson’s call to get back to the day job of governing. |
| The second is that Sturgeon has also mishandled the Brexit process. Under pressure from Salmond and those who prioritise a second independence vote, Sturgeon constantly upped her demands on Brexit, demanding a seat at the negotiating table, pitching for differential deals for Scotland, claiming a right to veto the final Brexit deal. The result has been a succession of failures, as May has dug in against SNP demands. | The second is that Sturgeon has also mishandled the Brexit process. Under pressure from Salmond and those who prioritise a second independence vote, Sturgeon constantly upped her demands on Brexit, demanding a seat at the negotiating table, pitching for differential deals for Scotland, claiming a right to veto the final Brexit deal. The result has been a succession of failures, as May has dug in against SNP demands. |
| Now Sturgeon and her party are switching to the more old-fashioned approach of trying to do deals with the Scottish Tories in the hope of brokering some changes to the EU withdrawal bill. On the conference fringe, the talk at Brexit discussions has been about making alliances with other parties at Holyrood and Westminster. | Now Sturgeon and her party are switching to the more old-fashioned approach of trying to do deals with the Scottish Tories in the hope of brokering some changes to the EU withdrawal bill. On the conference fringe, the talk at Brexit discussions has been about making alliances with other parties at Holyrood and Westminster. |
| But the biggest reason for Sturgeon’s change of tone this week is that she has domestic policy headaches to solve. The SNP has made promises that it is struggling or has simply failed to keep. Education is at the heart of this, and Sturgeon is expected to confirm another promise today, doubling the amount of free early education and childcare. | But the biggest reason for Sturgeon’s change of tone this week is that she has domestic policy headaches to solve. The SNP has made promises that it is struggling or has simply failed to keep. Education is at the heart of this, and Sturgeon is expected to confirm another promise today, doubling the amount of free early education and childcare. |
| Yet she also has a huge spending issue to deal with, not least as a result of her wish to lift the public sector pay cap in Scotland. A report last month by Strathclyde university’s Fraser of Allander Institute estimated that spending on non-health programmes is already being squeezed by up to 20%. That’s why – depending in part on Philip Hammond’s budget next month – the SNP may take the long-promised step of raising income tax to pay for public services such as schools, early years provision and the NHS. | Yet she also has a huge spending issue to deal with, not least as a result of her wish to lift the public sector pay cap in Scotland. A report last month by Strathclyde university’s Fraser of Allander Institute estimated that spending on non-health programmes is already being squeezed by up to 20%. That’s why – depending in part on Philip Hammond’s budget next month – the SNP may take the long-promised step of raising income tax to pay for public services such as schools, early years provision and the NHS. |
| Don’t write the SNP or Sturgeon off. It is still the main political party in Scotland. She is still her country’s dominant political figure. Today’s speech will be full of the customary fire. But Sturgeon is the chastened leader of a party with a problem, and the wheel of Scottish politics is turning in new ways. | Don’t write the SNP or Sturgeon off. It is still the main political party in Scotland. She is still her country’s dominant political figure. Today’s speech will be full of the customary fire. But Sturgeon is the chastened leader of a party with a problem, and the wheel of Scottish politics is turning in new ways. |
| • Martin Kettle is a Guardian columnist | • Martin Kettle is a Guardian columnist |
| SNP conference 2017 | SNP conference 2017 |
| Opinion | Opinion |
| Scottish National party (SNP) | Scottish National party (SNP) |
| Nicola Sturgeon | Nicola Sturgeon |
| Scotland | Scotland |
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