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| Would tougher voting rules have changed the Brexit result? | Would tougher voting rules have changed the Brexit result? |
| (4 months later) | |
| Alan Duncan has said that a threshold such as a supermajority requirement should have been enforced. But remainers must accept that we lost the argument | |
| Tue 10 Oct 2017 11.57 BST | |
| Last modified on Tue 10 Oct 2017 14.12 BST | |
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| In 2016, the British people voted by a narrow but decisive majority – 52% to 48% – to leave the European Union. Some remainers have responded by suggesting that the people were deceived by the false arguments of the Brexiteers – as if referendum campaigns were jury trials in which the witnesses are on oath to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. Others have said that the people did not really know what they were doing. After the 1953 uprising in East Germany, the playwright Bertolt Brecht sardonically remarked that, instead of the people dismissing the government, the government should dismiss the people so as to secure a new and more acquiescent population. | In 2016, the British people voted by a narrow but decisive majority – 52% to 48% – to leave the European Union. Some remainers have responded by suggesting that the people were deceived by the false arguments of the Brexiteers – as if referendum campaigns were jury trials in which the witnesses are on oath to tell the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. Others have said that the people did not really know what they were doing. After the 1953 uprising in East Germany, the playwright Bertolt Brecht sardonically remarked that, instead of the people dismissing the government, the government should dismiss the people so as to secure a new and more acquiescent population. |
| Other remainers, such as Alan Duncan, a Conservative minister of state at the Foreign Office, argue that there should be a threshold for constitutional change – either a minimum turnout requirement or a supermajority requirement – perhaps two-thirds – before change is implemented. The Polish constitution provides that a referendum outcome shall only be valid if turnout exceeds 50%. That, of course, would not have altered anything in the Brexit referendum since turnout was 72%, the highest in any nationwide election or referendum since the 1992 general election. The campaign aroused the enthusiasm of those who had not voted since the time of John Major. For, by contrast with a general election, every vote counted. So voters in Hartlepool and Sunderland, safe Labour areas, had a real incentive to participate. However, a 50% turnout threshold would have prevented the introduction of a directly elected mayor of London, for the 72% yes vote in the 1998 referendum was secured on a turnout of just 35%. | Other remainers, such as Alan Duncan, a Conservative minister of state at the Foreign Office, argue that there should be a threshold for constitutional change – either a minimum turnout requirement or a supermajority requirement – perhaps two-thirds – before change is implemented. The Polish constitution provides that a referendum outcome shall only be valid if turnout exceeds 50%. That, of course, would not have altered anything in the Brexit referendum since turnout was 72%, the highest in any nationwide election or referendum since the 1992 general election. The campaign aroused the enthusiasm of those who had not voted since the time of John Major. For, by contrast with a general election, every vote counted. So voters in Hartlepool and Sunderland, safe Labour areas, had a real incentive to participate. However, a 50% turnout threshold would have prevented the introduction of a directly elected mayor of London, for the 72% yes vote in the 1998 referendum was secured on a turnout of just 35%. |
| In Britain, qualified majorities have been required only in the devolution referendums in Scotland and Wales in 1979. In these referendums, as well as a majority yes vote, a 40% majority of the electorate was needed for parliament to implement the devolution legislation. In Wales, devolution was rejected by a four-to-one majority, and so the threshold was irrelevant. But in Scotland, on a 64% turnout, 33% of the electorate voted for devolution while 31% voted against. The government could not proceed with devolution even though a majority had voted for it. Many Scots argued that the rules had been rigged against them, since there had been no threshold requirement in the 1975 referendum on whether Britain should remain in the European Community. The referendum strengthened the Scottish sense of grievance which continues to poison relations with England. | In Britain, qualified majorities have been required only in the devolution referendums in Scotland and Wales in 1979. In these referendums, as well as a majority yes vote, a 40% majority of the electorate was needed for parliament to implement the devolution legislation. In Wales, devolution was rejected by a four-to-one majority, and so the threshold was irrelevant. But in Scotland, on a 64% turnout, 33% of the electorate voted for devolution while 31% voted against. The government could not proceed with devolution even though a majority had voted for it. Many Scots argued that the rules had been rigged against them, since there had been no threshold requirement in the 1975 referendum on whether Britain should remain in the European Community. The referendum strengthened the Scottish sense of grievance which continues to poison relations with England. |
| Paradoxically, thresholds are likely to discourage turnout since a no voter might assume that an abstention is equivalent to a no vote. That would of course be the case with a requirement such as that in the Polish constitution. But it would not necessarily be the case with the type of threshold requirement in the devolution referendums. Suppose that, in the Scottish referendum, there had been an 80% turnout with 41% voting yes and 39% voting no, but that one-quarter of the 20% who abstained had done so in the belief that abstention was equivalent to a no vote. Then, the true strength of the nos would have been 44%, not 39%. The threshold would have confused voters and yielded an outcome opposed to their intentions. | Paradoxically, thresholds are likely to discourage turnout since a no voter might assume that an abstention is equivalent to a no vote. That would of course be the case with a requirement such as that in the Polish constitution. But it would not necessarily be the case with the type of threshold requirement in the devolution referendums. Suppose that, in the Scottish referendum, there had been an 80% turnout with 41% voting yes and 39% voting no, but that one-quarter of the 20% who abstained had done so in the belief that abstention was equivalent to a no vote. Then, the true strength of the nos would have been 44%, not 39%. The threshold would have confused voters and yielded an outcome opposed to their intentions. |
| Paradoxically, thresholds could discourage turnout since no voters might assume that an abstention was equivalent to no | Paradoxically, thresholds could discourage turnout since no voters might assume that an abstention was equivalent to no |
| There is, however, a case for a threshold in Northern Ireland, divided as it is between two communities. Here a simple majority, composed entirely of unionists, would be unacceptable to nationalists. A majority in both communities is needed to secure legitimacy. But the threshold should not be in the form of a percentage of the electorate as in Scotland, but either a qualified majority – perhaps 70% – or alternatively a minimum turnout requirement as in Poland – though, in Northern Ireland, it would need to be higher than 50% – possibly 65%. There is also a case for a minimum turnout in local referendums, where the average turnout in local elections is under 40%, so as to prevent vociferous local minorities imposing their preferences on the rest, the very antithesis of the purpose of a referendum which is to allow the majority to rule. | There is, however, a case for a threshold in Northern Ireland, divided as it is between two communities. Here a simple majority, composed entirely of unionists, would be unacceptable to nationalists. A majority in both communities is needed to secure legitimacy. But the threshold should not be in the form of a percentage of the electorate as in Scotland, but either a qualified majority – perhaps 70% – or alternatively a minimum turnout requirement as in Poland – though, in Northern Ireland, it would need to be higher than 50% – possibly 65%. There is also a case for a minimum turnout in local referendums, where the average turnout in local elections is under 40%, so as to prevent vociferous local minorities imposing their preferences on the rest, the very antithesis of the purpose of a referendum which is to allow the majority to rule. |
| But all these arguments for turnout requirements and qualified majorities, together with suggestions that voters did not know what they were doing, evade the crucial point which is that the remainers, of whom I was one, lost the argument. The remainers now have a chance, albeit a slim one, to recoup their position by following the advice of Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat leader, and campaigning for a referendum on the deal negotiated by the government with the European Union. But, if the remainers do secure this second chance, they must not fumble it again. They must learn to respect the sovereignty of the people rather than denigrating or seeking to subvert it. | But all these arguments for turnout requirements and qualified majorities, together with suggestions that voters did not know what they were doing, evade the crucial point which is that the remainers, of whom I was one, lost the argument. The remainers now have a chance, albeit a slim one, to recoup their position by following the advice of Vince Cable, the Liberal Democrat leader, and campaigning for a referendum on the deal negotiated by the government with the European Union. But, if the remainers do secure this second chance, they must not fumble it again. They must learn to respect the sovereignty of the people rather than denigrating or seeking to subvert it. |
| • Vernon Bogdanor is professor of government at King’s College, London. His books include The New British Constitution | • Vernon Bogdanor is professor of government at King’s College, London. His books include The New British Constitution |
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| Voter apathy | |
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