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10 Weeks, 10 Hurricanes, and a 124-Year-Old Record Is Matched 10 Weeks, 10 Hurricanes, and a 124-Year-Old Record Is Matched
(35 minutes later)
With Tropical Storm Ophelia’s transition to Hurricane Ophelia on Wednesday, 2017 became the first year in more than a century — and only the fourth on record — in which 10 Atlantic storms in a row reached hurricane strength.With Tropical Storm Ophelia’s transition to Hurricane Ophelia on Wednesday, 2017 became the first year in more than a century — and only the fourth on record — in which 10 Atlantic storms in a row reached hurricane strength.
Franklin. Gert. Harvey. Irma. Jose. Katia. Lee. Maria. Nate. Ophelia.Franklin. Gert. Harvey. Irma. Jose. Katia. Lee. Maria. Nate. Ophelia.
The last time 10 consecutive Atlantic storms became hurricanes was in 1893 — and because tracking technology was far more primitive then, meteorologists say, it is possible some weak tropical storms or tropical depressions went undetected within that streak. There were also 10-hurricane streaks in 1878 and 1886, according to Bob Henson, a meteorologist for Weather Underground. But since modern records began in 1851, there has never been an 11-hurricane stretch. Ophelia, far out in the Atlantic, does not pose a threat to the United States, though it may affect Ireland. But it puts this year in the history books. The last time 10 consecutive Atlantic storms became hurricanes was in 1893 — and because tracking technology was far more primitive then, meteorologists say, it is possible some weak tropical storms or tropical depressions went undetected within that streak.
There were also 10-hurricane streaks in 1878 and 1886, according to Bob Henson, a meteorologist for Weather Underground. But since modern records began in 1851, there has never been an 11-hurricane stretch.
In the two months since Hurricane Franklin formed on Aug. 7, Mr. Henson said, there has been “maybe a week total without a named storm roaming the Atlantic somewhere.” Two of the 10 hurricanes in that period, Irma and Maria, reached the highest level, Category 5. Two others, Harvey and Jose, reached Category 4. Within a single month from mid-August to mid-September, six hurricanes developed.In the two months since Hurricane Franklin formed on Aug. 7, Mr. Henson said, there has been “maybe a week total without a named storm roaming the Atlantic somewhere.” Two of the 10 hurricanes in that period, Irma and Maria, reached the highest level, Category 5. Two others, Harvey and Jose, reached Category 4. Within a single month from mid-August to mid-September, six hurricanes developed.
The number of named storms so far — 10 hurricanes and five tropical storms, for a total of 15 — has already made the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season one of the busiest on record, and there is still more than a month and a half to go before it officially ends on Nov. 30.The number of named storms so far — 10 hurricanes and five tropical storms, for a total of 15 — has already made the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season one of the busiest on record, and there is still more than a month and a half to go before it officially ends on Nov. 30.
But what really stands out is the intensity and duration of the storms, reflected in a measure known as accumulated cyclone energy. By that index, 2017 ranks eighth since modern hurricane records began in 1851, and its position is likely to rise before the season is over. (The 1893 season, which produced the last 10-hurricane streak, ranks fourth.)But what really stands out is the intensity and duration of the storms, reflected in a measure known as accumulated cyclone energy. By that index, 2017 ranks eighth since modern hurricane records began in 1851, and its position is likely to rise before the season is over. (The 1893 season, which produced the last 10-hurricane streak, ranks fourth.)
This year, Mr. Henson said, the Atlantic has experienced 18.75 major hurricane days — that is, the total number of days logged by Category 3, 4 and 5 storms. While there is significant variation from year to year, he said, this is nearly five times the full-season average of 3.9 days.This year, Mr. Henson said, the Atlantic has experienced 18.75 major hurricane days — that is, the total number of days logged by Category 3, 4 and 5 storms. While there is significant variation from year to year, he said, this is nearly five times the full-season average of 3.9 days.
All of this leads, inevitably, to one question: Why?All of this leads, inevitably, to one question: Why?
The link between climate change and hurricanes is not as simple as the link between climate change and other extreme weather events, like heat waves and droughts, scientists say — in part because, compared with those other events, the sample size of hurricanes is small. But climate change is a factor.The link between climate change and hurricanes is not as simple as the link between climate change and other extreme weather events, like heat waves and droughts, scientists say — in part because, compared with those other events, the sample size of hurricanes is small. But climate change is a factor.
Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech University, told The New York Times in August that climate change might not increase the number of hurricanes, but that warmer ocean temperatures could “have a role in intensifying a storm that already exists.”Katharine Hayhoe, a climate scientist at Texas Tech University, told The New York Times in August that climate change might not increase the number of hurricanes, but that warmer ocean temperatures could “have a role in intensifying a storm that already exists.”
“We care about a changing climate because it exacerbates the natural risks and hazards that we already face,” Dr. Hayhoe said.“We care about a changing climate because it exacerbates the natural risks and hazards that we already face,” Dr. Hayhoe said.
That fits with what we have seen this year: a remarkable number of the strongest storms. Warmer waters simply provide more fuel for hurricanes to intensify.That fits with what we have seen this year: a remarkable number of the strongest storms. Warmer waters simply provide more fuel for hurricanes to intensify.
“Any given season could have waters that are warmer or cooler than average,” Mr. Henson said. “That’s simply how hurricane seasons work.” But the ordinary seasonal variations are occurring on top of the long-term warming trend. These two elements can combine to produce monstrous storms like Hurricane Irma — which was one of only five hurricanes on record to reach wind speeds of 185 miles per hour, and which sustained those winds for a record 37 hours.“Any given season could have waters that are warmer or cooler than average,” Mr. Henson said. “That’s simply how hurricane seasons work.” But the ordinary seasonal variations are occurring on top of the long-term warming trend. These two elements can combine to produce monstrous storms like Hurricane Irma — which was one of only five hurricanes on record to reach wind speeds of 185 miles per hour, and which sustained those winds for a record 37 hours.
Generally speaking, hurricanes can develop when the water beneath them is 26 degrees Celsius (about 79 degrees Fahrenheit) or higher. Climate change, Mr. Henson said, is increasing both the number of days that present those water temperatures and the size of the areas that have them.Generally speaking, hurricanes can develop when the water beneath them is 26 degrees Celsius (about 79 degrees Fahrenheit) or higher. Climate change, Mr. Henson said, is increasing both the number of days that present those water temperatures and the size of the areas that have them.
The warm waters have combined with atmospheric conditions to make this season historically destructive. Wind shear has been very low, Mr. Henson said, which has allowed tropical systems to intensify “without being tilted, sheared, torn apart by stronger winds.” And steering currents have tended to drive storms over land rather than pushing them out to sea, creating an enormous human toll.The warm waters have combined with atmospheric conditions to make this season historically destructive. Wind shear has been very low, Mr. Henson said, which has allowed tropical systems to intensify “without being tilted, sheared, torn apart by stronger winds.” And steering currents have tended to drive storms over land rather than pushing them out to sea, creating an enormous human toll.