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| Democrats Are Playing Checkers While Trump Is Playing Chess | Democrats Are Playing Checkers While Trump Is Playing Chess |
| (about 7 hours later) | |
| For Democrats, the warning shots are coming thick and fast. | For Democrats, the warning shots are coming thick and fast. |
| “More than half of Americans don’t think Donald Trump is fit to serve as president, yet he has a clear path to winning reelection,” Doug Sosnik, who served as President Bill Clinton’s political director, wrote in the Washington Post last week. “Are Democrats Headed for a McGovern Redux?” Alan Greenblatt asked in Politico on Oct. 9. On the same day, a New York Magazine headline declared: “No One Should Rule Out a Trump Re-election in 2020.” | “More than half of Americans don’t think Donald Trump is fit to serve as president, yet he has a clear path to winning reelection,” Doug Sosnik, who served as President Bill Clinton’s political director, wrote in the Washington Post last week. “Are Democrats Headed for a McGovern Redux?” Alan Greenblatt asked in Politico on Oct. 9. On the same day, a New York Magazine headline declared: “No One Should Rule Out a Trump Re-election in 2020.” |
| What can Democrats do? | What can Democrats do? |
| A Pew Research Center survey released earlier this month documented the growth of the partisan divide: “the median (middle) Republican is now more conservative than 97% of Democrats, and the median Democrat is more liberal than 95% of Republicans.” The two accompanying charts illustrate the heights partisanship has reached. | A Pew Research Center survey released earlier this month documented the growth of the partisan divide: “the median (middle) Republican is now more conservative than 97% of Democrats, and the median Democrat is more liberal than 95% of Republicans.” The two accompanying charts illustrate the heights partisanship has reached. |
| Much of the current polarization is driven by difference of opinion on issues of race and immigration. Ashley Jardina, a political scientist at Duke who has focused much of her research on the racial attitudes of whites, emailed me to comment: | Much of the current polarization is driven by difference of opinion on issues of race and immigration. Ashley Jardina, a political scientist at Duke who has focused much of her research on the racial attitudes of whites, emailed me to comment: |
| Disrupting this linkage is an uphill battle for Democrats: | Disrupting this linkage is an uphill battle for Democrats: |
| According to Cornell Belcher, a prominent Democratic pollster who worked for President Barack Obama, attempts to win white working class votes in presidential elections should not be the Democrats’ top priority. He wrote me: | According to Cornell Belcher, a prominent Democratic pollster who worked for President Barack Obama, attempts to win white working class votes in presidential elections should not be the Democrats’ top priority. He wrote me: |
| Belcher pointed out that | Belcher pointed out that |
| In terms of Congressional and state legislative contests, Belcher argues, “we can and should do better among non-college white voters” because they are crucial to the outcome in many districts. But doing so, he argues, will be a tremendous challenge: | In terms of Congressional and state legislative contests, Belcher argues, “we can and should do better among non-college white voters” because they are crucial to the outcome in many districts. But doing so, he argues, will be a tremendous challenge: |
| Significantly, Belcher contends, the anxiety about rapid social change is politically salient. Offering economic palliatives will not adequately address that anxiety, he said: | Significantly, Belcher contends, the anxiety about rapid social change is politically salient. Offering economic palliatives will not adequately address that anxiety, he said: |
| Arthur Lupia, a political scientist at the University of Michigan who is an expert in elections and party politics, wrote in an email that many voters in 2016 were worried about the rate of changes taking place in the racial and ethnic composition of their communities and in the continuing shift from manufacturing to service industries: | Arthur Lupia, a political scientist at the University of Michigan who is an expert in elections and party politics, wrote in an email that many voters in 2016 were worried about the rate of changes taking place in the racial and ethnic composition of their communities and in the continuing shift from manufacturing to service industries: |
| This difference played into a second Democratic liability, according to Lupia: | This difference played into a second Democratic liability, according to Lupia: |
| Voters who cast Republican ballots last year experience disproportionately higher levels of both cultural and economic anxiety than Democratic voters, Lupia argued, but “many people on the left mock this uncertainty and those who feel this uncertainty are quite good at knowing when they are being mocked.” | Voters who cast Republican ballots last year experience disproportionately higher levels of both cultural and economic anxiety than Democratic voters, Lupia argued, but “many people on the left mock this uncertainty and those who feel this uncertainty are quite good at knowing when they are being mocked.” |
| Bruce Cain, a political scientist at Stanford, agrees with Lupia in many respects, but places greater emphasis on economic policy as a coalition building mechanism: | Bruce Cain, a political scientist at Stanford, agrees with Lupia in many respects, but places greater emphasis on economic policy as a coalition building mechanism: |
| Cain is critical of the lack of attention Democrats paid to economic issues in 2016: | Cain is critical of the lack of attention Democrats paid to economic issues in 2016: |
| In Cain’s view, the lack of focus on the economic needs of the heartland is of a piece with the sociocultural remoteness of Democratic elites: | In Cain’s view, the lack of focus on the economic needs of the heartland is of a piece with the sociocultural remoteness of Democratic elites: |
| Paul Begala, a Democratic consultant and adviser to Bill Clinton, also comes back to the cultural breach between upscale Democrats and the white working class and poses this basic question: | Paul Begala, a Democratic consultant and adviser to Bill Clinton, also comes back to the cultural breach between upscale Democrats and the white working class and poses this basic question: |
| White working-class Americans are “dying before their time,” Begala wrote in an email, specifically citing the rise in alcoholism, cirrhosis, drug addiction, overdoses, suicide and poisoning: | White working-class Americans are “dying before their time,” Begala wrote in an email, specifically citing the rise in alcoholism, cirrhosis, drug addiction, overdoses, suicide and poisoning: |
| Begala stresses that Democrats must show respect for the culture of the white working class: | Begala stresses that Democrats must show respect for the culture of the white working class: |
| Begala’s views are shared by Sosnik, who emailed me along the same lines: | Begala’s views are shared by Sosnik, who emailed me along the same lines: |
| Nathaniel Persily, a professor of law and political science at Stanford, makes the point succinctly, focusing on the importance of candidate recruitment: “How can the party nominate someone, or be led by someone, like Bill Clinton, rather than Hillary Clinton?” | Nathaniel Persily, a professor of law and political science at Stanford, makes the point succinctly, focusing on the importance of candidate recruitment: “How can the party nominate someone, or be led by someone, like Bill Clinton, rather than Hillary Clinton?” |
| Danielle Thomsen, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, recognizes how difficult it will be for Democrats to make inroads into Trump country. She also focuses on the importance of candidate recruitment and candidate quality. Thomsen emailed: | Danielle Thomsen, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, recognizes how difficult it will be for Democrats to make inroads into Trump country. She also focuses on the importance of candidate recruitment and candidate quality. Thomsen emailed: |
| One approach to “getting Middle America to identify with and see themselves as partners alongside racial and ethnic minorities, environmentalists, feminists, young Americans, secular Americans, and other groups who are squarely in the Democratic coalition,” she suggests, would be a concerted effort to recruit “candidates who represent the slice of middle and working class Americans whose lead they could follow and rally behind.” | One approach to “getting Middle America to identify with and see themselves as partners alongside racial and ethnic minorities, environmentalists, feminists, young Americans, secular Americans, and other groups who are squarely in the Democratic coalition,” she suggests, would be a concerted effort to recruit “candidates who represent the slice of middle and working class Americans whose lead they could follow and rally behind.” |
| There are some observers who are quite pessimistic about the ability of the Democratic Party to expand its base. Ryan Enos, a professor of government at Harvard, emailed me: | There are some observers who are quite pessimistic about the ability of the Democratic Party to expand its base. Ryan Enos, a professor of government at Harvard, emailed me: |
| In theory, Democrats could shift to the right to appeal to these white voters, but, Enos points out, party leaders | In theory, Democrats could shift to the right to appeal to these white voters, but, Enos points out, party leaders |
| In this context, according to Enos, | In this context, according to Enos, |
| With polarization driving differences over race, ethnicity and cultural values to new heights, the capacity on the left for the kind of full-fledged empathy for working class Trump supporters described by Sosnik and Begala is at a low point. Indeed, Shanto Iyengar and Sean Westwood, political scientists at Stanford and Dartmouth, found in a 2015 paper that partisan identity is now more polarized even than racial identity. | With polarization driving differences over race, ethnicity and cultural values to new heights, the capacity on the left for the kind of full-fledged empathy for working class Trump supporters described by Sosnik and Begala is at a low point. Indeed, Shanto Iyengar and Sean Westwood, political scientists at Stanford and Dartmouth, found in a 2015 paper that partisan identity is now more polarized even than racial identity. |
| “If you go back to the days of the Civil War, one can find cases in American political history where there was far more rancor and violence,” Iyengar told my Times colleagues Emily Badger and Niraj Chokshi in the Upshot. “But in the modern era, there are no ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ — partisan animus is at an all-time high.” | “If you go back to the days of the Civil War, one can find cases in American political history where there was far more rancor and violence,” Iyengar told my Times colleagues Emily Badger and Niraj Chokshi in the Upshot. “But in the modern era, there are no ‘ifs’ and ‘buts’ — partisan animus is at an all-time high.” |
| In 1972, Washington Post columnist David Broder wrote “The Party’s Over,” lamenting the decline of “unvarnished political partisanship.” Broder went on: | In 1972, Washington Post columnist David Broder wrote “The Party’s Over,” lamenting the decline of “unvarnished political partisanship.” Broder went on: |
| Forty-five years later an era of hyper-partisanship has taken hold. “Today,” Iyengar and Westwood write, “the sense of partisan identification is all encompassing.” | Forty-five years later an era of hyper-partisanship has taken hold. “Today,” Iyengar and Westwood write, “the sense of partisan identification is all encompassing.” |
| Clearly there are costs to political schism: gridlock, the loss of comity, the division of the nation into warring camps. But there are also, arguably, benefits: coherent party platforms and vigorous, highly invested political participation. Aggressively contested elections of the type we have at present put real choices before voters, and conflict, as the sociologist Lewis Coser argued, can overcome resistance to change, prevent ossification of the social system and generate innovation and creativity. | |
| Real choices raise the possibility that there might be real breakthroughs, real discoveries and real advances. Perhaps the problem is not that we have had too much change, but that we haven’t had enough. | Real choices raise the possibility that there might be real breakthroughs, real discoveries and real advances. Perhaps the problem is not that we have had too much change, but that we haven’t had enough. |
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