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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/12/conservatives-lost-home-counties-influx-young-people-london-south-east
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| How the Conservatives lost their home counties heartland | How the Conservatives lost their home counties heartland |
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| Thu 12 Oct 2017 13.58 BST | |
| Last modified on Fri 13 Oct 2017 14.34 BST | |
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| Think home counties, and the sorts of things that come to mind are blue-rinse, golf courses and village halls. This is a stereotype we need to reconsider based on the latest demographic shifts we are seeing in and around London. These have significant implications for the major parties’ electoral prospects in London and the south-east. | Think home counties, and the sorts of things that come to mind are blue-rinse, golf courses and village halls. This is a stereotype we need to reconsider based on the latest demographic shifts we are seeing in and around London. These have significant implications for the major parties’ electoral prospects in London and the south-east. |
| In June’s general election, the largest swing from the Conservatives to Labour came in this region. Underlying these swings were migration patterns that have seen younger voters continue to flood into London while people in their 30s move out to surrounding commuter towns. Thanks to data from the Office for National Statistics we know that people in their 20s are most likely to move to the capital while those in their 30s and 40s (and their children) are most likely to leave. There has been a net loss of people to London from the Midlands and the north – in effect, a brain drain of people in their early- to mid-20s – while the south-east and east of England have seen net increases in people in their 30s and 40s moving from London since 2012. | In June’s general election, the largest swing from the Conservatives to Labour came in this region. Underlying these swings were migration patterns that have seen younger voters continue to flood into London while people in their 30s move out to surrounding commuter towns. Thanks to data from the Office for National Statistics we know that people in their 20s are most likely to move to the capital while those in their 30s and 40s (and their children) are most likely to leave. There has been a net loss of people to London from the Midlands and the north – in effect, a brain drain of people in their early- to mid-20s – while the south-east and east of England have seen net increases in people in their 30s and 40s moving from London since 2012. |
| What do these shifts mean for our politics? Between the 2015 and 2017 elections Labour saw its vote share increase by 10.4% in the south-east, 10.7% in the east of England and 10.6% in London. The Conservatives saw their vote share fall by 1.3% in London, while its share increased by just 2.3% in the south-east, a region that has traditionally been strong for them. Against the national trend, they significantly underperformed in the south-east. | What do these shifts mean for our politics? Between the 2015 and 2017 elections Labour saw its vote share increase by 10.4% in the south-east, 10.7% in the east of England and 10.6% in London. The Conservatives saw their vote share fall by 1.3% in London, while its share increased by just 2.3% in the south-east, a region that has traditionally been strong for them. Against the national trend, they significantly underperformed in the south-east. |
| In some respects, the chickens have come home to roost for the Conservatives. An overheated and expensive housing market in London has exacerbated a flight to the rest of the south-east for the over-30s and their young families, sending better-educated young professionals to places like Canterbury, Slough, Luton and Brighton in their thousands. | In some respects, the chickens have come home to roost for the Conservatives. An overheated and expensive housing market in London has exacerbated a flight to the rest of the south-east for the over-30s and their young families, sending better-educated young professionals to places like Canterbury, Slough, Luton and Brighton in their thousands. |
| The Conservatives have exacerbated this problem by failing to understand the needs of these voters. They shed votes among early-career aspirational graduates and professionals with young families – voters they might have traditionally expected to appeal to on economic grounds, less alienated by David Cameron’s Conservatism. Members of this group are more likely to have voted to remain in the European Union. Many of their jobs are reliant on the UK being an open and welcoming place to work and do business. They commute into London on crowded trains, paying through the nose to do so. They typically like living and working in diverse and vibrant neighbourhoods. They are more likely to support free movement – and many will have colleagues from EU countries. They are proud internationalists and reject the isolationist perspective that they believe the Brexit vote has empowered. | The Conservatives have exacerbated this problem by failing to understand the needs of these voters. They shed votes among early-career aspirational graduates and professionals with young families – voters they might have traditionally expected to appeal to on economic grounds, less alienated by David Cameron’s Conservatism. Members of this group are more likely to have voted to remain in the European Union. Many of their jobs are reliant on the UK being an open and welcoming place to work and do business. They commute into London on crowded trains, paying through the nose to do so. They typically like living and working in diverse and vibrant neighbourhoods. They are more likely to support free movement – and many will have colleagues from EU countries. They are proud internationalists and reject the isolationist perspective that they believe the Brexit vote has empowered. |
| And the Tories’ problems in the south-east may be set to get worse. Almost all the swing to Labour from the Conservatives came from the under-40s. Many in their 20s and 30s living in London, if current trends continue, will also move out into the south-east in the next few years. So the housing crisis in London is a problem the Conservatives will need to resolve if they are to contain the flight of Labour-friendly voters to traditional Tory strongholds. | And the Tories’ problems in the south-east may be set to get worse. Almost all the swing to Labour from the Conservatives came from the under-40s. Many in their 20s and 30s living in London, if current trends continue, will also move out into the south-east in the next few years. So the housing crisis in London is a problem the Conservatives will need to resolve if they are to contain the flight of Labour-friendly voters to traditional Tory strongholds. |
| Meanwhile, London continues to attract young people, a group in which Labour now commands a huge lead. If Conservatives want to stem this trend they will also need to provide compelling reasons for young people to resist the pull of London – by improving regional growth, jobs and opportunities. Otherwise there will always be a conveyor belt of twentysomethings using London as a footstool to a home in the south-east. That should worry Conservatives a great deal. | Meanwhile, London continues to attract young people, a group in which Labour now commands a huge lead. If Conservatives want to stem this trend they will also need to provide compelling reasons for young people to resist the pull of London – by improving regional growth, jobs and opportunities. Otherwise there will always be a conveyor belt of twentysomethings using London as a footstool to a home in the south-east. That should worry Conservatives a great deal. |
| • Ian Warren is director of the consultancy Election Data | • Ian Warren is director of the consultancy Election Data |
| Politics | |
| Opinion | |
| London & South East | |
| General election 2017 | |
| Housing market | |
| Population | |
| Labour | |
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