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Iran nuclear deal: Trump poised to withdraw support Iran nuclear deal: Trump to reveal tough new strategy
(about 7 hours later)
US President Donald Trump is expected to withdraw backing from the nuclear accord with Iran on Friday and lay out a more confrontational strategy. US President Donald Trump is expected to set out a more confrontational strategy towards Iran, accusing it of pursuing "death and destruction".
The move would not withdraw the US from the deal but give Congress 60 days to decide whether to do so by re-imposing sanctions. It is thought he will focus on its non-nuclear activities, particularly those of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), accused of supporting terrorism.
Secretary of State Rex Tillerson has been consulting with counterparts in Europe and China, officials said. The new strategy calls for stricter enforcement of the 2015 nuclear deal.
Mr Trump has been under pressure at home and abroad not to scrap the deal. He is expected to refuse to certify to Congress that Iran is complying with the deal.
Under the 2015 accord, Iran agreed to freeze its nuclear programme in return for the partial lifting of sanctions. Official sources have told the Associated Press Mr Trump will say Iran is living up to the letter of the agreement but also that the deal is fatally flawed.
President Trump has been a longstanding critic of the deal and pledged to scrap it during his campaign. While he may not ask for sanctions to be re-imposed, he may urge Congress to approve tough new requirements for Tehran to continue to benefit from sanctions relief.
Congress requires the US president to certify every 90 days that Iran is upholding its part of the agreement. Mr Trump has already recertified it twice. Mr Trump is under pressure at home and abroad not to scrap the deal under which Iran agreed to freeze its nuclear programme in return for the partial lifting of sanctions.
Speculation that Mr Trump might refuse to recertify the deal has caused alarm among US allies and some members of his own administration. During last year's election campaign he pledged to throw out the agreement concluded under his predecessor, Barack Obama.
Defence Secretary James Mattis told a Senate hearing earlier this month it was not in the national interest to abandon it.
Analysis: Trump tries to 'fix' Iran dealAnalysis: Trump tries to 'fix' Iran deal
Barbara Plett Usher, BBC News, WashingtonBarbara Plett Usher, BBC News, Washington
President Trump has called the Iran nuclear accord the "worst deal ever negotiated", and threatened to tear it up.President Trump has called the Iran nuclear accord the "worst deal ever negotiated", and threatened to tear it up.
It looks, though, as if he will first try to "fix" it. He is expected to tell Congress that Iran is not meeting certain conditions set by US law; that the deal's benefits are too meagre, for example, to justify continued sanctions relief.It looks, though, as if he will first try to "fix" it. He is expected to tell Congress that Iran is not meeting certain conditions set by US law; that the deal's benefits are too meagre, for example, to justify continued sanctions relief.
Then it would be up to lawmakers to decide whether to re-impose sanctions.Then it would be up to lawmakers to decide whether to re-impose sanctions.
Mr Trump is unlikely to advocate they do so now. Even critics of the deal fear this would isolate the US and weaken its credibility, because Iran is complying with the agreement.Mr Trump is unlikely to advocate they do so now. Even critics of the deal fear this would isolate the US and weaken its credibility, because Iran is complying with the agreement.
Republicans have suggested they could use decertification as leverage to get the changes they want.Republicans have suggested they could use decertification as leverage to get the changes they want.
Ed Royce, Republican chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, said that though the deal was "flawed, I believe we must now enforce the hell out of it". Why is Trump speaking now?
Foreign leaders, including British PM Theresa May and French President Emmanuel Macron, have urged Mr Trump to keep the deal. Congress requires the US president to certify every 90 days that Iran is upholding its part of the nuclear agreement.
Mr Trump recently reaffirmed his long-held opposition to the accord, calling it "one of the most incompetently drawn deals I've ever seen". Mr Trump has already recertified it twice and has a deadline of Sunday to make his latest report back.
"They got a path to nuclear weapons very quickly, and think of this one - $1.7bn in cash," he told Fox News, referring to a decision by the Obama administration to settle a decades-long legal claim with Iran as part of the deal. Refusal to recertify would give Congress 60 days to decide whether to pull out of the nuclear deal by re-imposing sanctions.
Mr Trump has repeatedly said Iran has broken the "spirit" of the deal, although the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and Congress agree Iran is complying with the terms of the agreement. What is Trump likely to announce?
The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was designed to prevent Iran developing a nuclear weapon. A strategy paper released by the White House highlights calls for neutralising Iran's "destabilising influence and constraining its aggression, particularly its support for terrorism and militants".
The US, it says, will work to revitalise traditional alliances and regional partnerships as "bulwarks against Iranian subversion".
Efforts will be made to deny funding for the Iranian government and the IRGC's "malign activities" and counter threats from ballistic missiles "and other asymmetric weapons".
The IRGC's "gross violations of human rights" will be highlighted to the rest of the world.
"Most importantly, we will deny the Iranian regime all paths to a nuclear weapon," the paper says.
What will he say about the nuclear deal?
The final point in the strategy paper accuses the Iranian government of displaying a "disturbing pattern of behaviour, seeking to exploit loopholes and test the international community's resolve".
"This behaviour cannot be tolerated," it says. "The deal must be strictly enforced, and the IAEA [the UN's nuclear watchdog] must fully utilise its inspection authorities."
Mr Trump recently called the deal "one of the most incompetently drawn deals" he had ever seen.
What do other key players say?
Foreign leaders, including UK Prime Minister Theresa May and French President Emmanuel Macron, have urged Mr Trump to keep the deal.
"We also have to tell the Americans that their behaviour on the Iran issue will drive us Europeans into a common position with Russia and China against the USA," German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel warned in a newspaper interview.
The Chinese and Russian foreign ministers said all parties to the deal must try to meet their obligations under it.
The IAEA and Congress currently both agree Iran is complying with the terms of the nuclear agreement.
What is Iran's position?
The speaker of the Iranian parliament, Ali Larijani, said on a visit to Russia that a US withdrawal from the deal would signal its end.
He warned that the collapse of the deal could result in global chaos, Russian media report.
What is the nuclear deal?
Formerly known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, it is designed to prevent Iran developing a nuclear weapon.
It lifted some sanctions that stopped Iran from trading on international markets and selling oil.It lifted some sanctions that stopped Iran from trading on international markets and selling oil.
The lifting of sanctions is dependent on Iran restricting its nuclear programme. It must curb its uranium stockpile, build no more heavy-water reactors for 15 years, and allow inspectors into the country. The lifting of sanctions is dependent on Iran restricting its nuclear programme. It must curb its uranium stockpile, build no more heavy-water reactors for 15 years and allow inspectors into the country.
Who are the Revolutionary Guards?
Set up shortly after the 1979 Iranian revolution to defend the country's Islamic system, they provide a counterweight to the regular armed forces.
They are a major military, political and economic force in Iran, with some 125,000 active members, and oversee strategic weapons.
They have been accused of supporting Shia Muslim militants in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Syria.