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| Philip Hammond: defeatist Eeyore or the measured voice of reason? | Philip Hammond: defeatist Eeyore or the measured voice of reason? |
| (25 days later) | |
| Of all the characters at the government’s fissiparous top these days, the chancellor, Philip Hammond, looks the least likely to end up at the heart of temper-fraying spats. Box Office Phil was a nickname that came with a bucketload of irony. Nowadays, Hammond has found himself in the middle of a series of toxic dramas defining the government. | Of all the characters at the government’s fissiparous top these days, the chancellor, Philip Hammond, looks the least likely to end up at the heart of temper-fraying spats. Box Office Phil was a nickname that came with a bucketload of irony. Nowadays, Hammond has found himself in the middle of a series of toxic dramas defining the government. |
| Accused of something “close to sabotage” by Nigel Lawson, the pro-Brexit former Tory chancellor, and earning a front page in the Daily Mail and a leader slamming him as a “dismal, defeatist, relentlessly negative” Eeyore, the chancellor inflicted an own goal by calling EU negotiators “the enemy”. (He has since apologised for the “poor choice of words”.) | Accused of something “close to sabotage” by Nigel Lawson, the pro-Brexit former Tory chancellor, and earning a front page in the Daily Mail and a leader slamming him as a “dismal, defeatist, relentlessly negative” Eeyore, the chancellor inflicted an own goal by calling EU negotiators “the enemy”. (He has since apologised for the “poor choice of words”.) |
| The chancellor is walking on eggshells. Few at Westminster think his grip on the job is secure. If the disaster-prone Tory conference turned into demands on Theresa May to “sack Boris” to restore confidence in her leadership, calls to reshuffle the top tier of her cabinet now focus on Hammond. | The chancellor is walking on eggshells. Few at Westminster think his grip on the job is secure. If the disaster-prone Tory conference turned into demands on Theresa May to “sack Boris” to restore confidence in her leadership, calls to reshuffle the top tier of her cabinet now focus on Hammond. |
| It’s a curious situation for a technocrat, who earned the job on the grounds that he had the business experience to read a balance sheet (an earlier reputation for number-crunching drew the lugubrious moniker Spreadsheet Phil). But anyone waiting for Hammond to step on the next banana skin out of the Treasury should be careful what they wish for. | It’s a curious situation for a technocrat, who earned the job on the grounds that he had the business experience to read a balance sheet (an earlier reputation for number-crunching drew the lugubrious moniker Spreadsheet Phil). But anyone waiting for Hammond to step on the next banana skin out of the Treasury should be careful what they wish for. |
| Despite recent flurries, Hammond is one of the few remaining step-by-step technocrats in a government where Brexit is delivered either by True Believers, who view success simply as the moment of departure, and sore Remainers, without much hope of the elusive second referendum or any other exit from Brexit. “Hammond is the prime punchbag, soaking it all up,” observes a prominent Remain colleague in cabinet. “If he goes, the battles will spread and draw in everyone else. He’s doing TM a favour by putting up with it all, not the other way round.” | Despite recent flurries, Hammond is one of the few remaining step-by-step technocrats in a government where Brexit is delivered either by True Believers, who view success simply as the moment of departure, and sore Remainers, without much hope of the elusive second referendum or any other exit from Brexit. “Hammond is the prime punchbag, soaking it all up,” observes a prominent Remain colleague in cabinet. “If he goes, the battles will spread and draw in everyone else. He’s doing TM a favour by putting up with it all, not the other way round.” |
| May has known Hammond since they turned up at Oxford in 1974, both from state schools, his in Essex. May made her way steadily through local politics into parliament, courting little controversy along the way. Hammond, exhilarated by the entrepreneurial culture of the Thatcher years, excelled at PPE (gaining a first) and set out on a business career. He bought and sold Ford cars as a starter job, worked for a medical supplies-based conglomerate called Speywood, bought a subsidiary when it ran into trouble and spent an unglamorous time working from his parents’ home in Billericay. | May has known Hammond since they turned up at Oxford in 1974, both from state schools, his in Essex. May made her way steadily through local politics into parliament, courting little controversy along the way. Hammond, exhilarated by the entrepreneurial culture of the Thatcher years, excelled at PPE (gaining a first) and set out on a business career. He bought and sold Ford cars as a starter job, worked for a medical supplies-based conglomerate called Speywood, bought a subsidiary when it ran into trouble and spent an unglamorous time working from his parents’ home in Billericay. |
| If that sounds a bit Del Boy, it certainly was – the companies did not thrive and a succession of slightly random entrepreneurial ideas flaked. But the experience gave him fluency with accounts and the risks of business, which relatively few senior politicians have. His dream of financial success finally paid off when he became a property developer, with other property investments attached. Alongside Jeremy Hunt (a possible replacement if May loses patience with Hammond), he is one of the wealthiest individuals in cabinet, though not given to flaunting his wealth. His wife, Susan, organises social events for political spouses and their three children have been kept firmly out of the limelight. | If that sounds a bit Del Boy, it certainly was – the companies did not thrive and a succession of slightly random entrepreneurial ideas flaked. But the experience gave him fluency with accounts and the risks of business, which relatively few senior politicians have. His dream of financial success finally paid off when he became a property developer, with other property investments attached. Alongside Jeremy Hunt (a possible replacement if May loses patience with Hammond), he is one of the wealthiest individuals in cabinet, though not given to flaunting his wealth. His wife, Susan, organises social events for political spouses and their three children have been kept firmly out of the limelight. |
| The May-Hammond alliance is based on interdependence rather than warmth. In the Cameron era, he made clear he would support her, rather than an overt moderniser, as the next leader. She in turn delivered him the role he had always coveted – to Number 11 after the departure of George Osborne, and after his “safe hands” stints at the Foreign Office, Defence and Transport. | The May-Hammond alliance is based on interdependence rather than warmth. In the Cameron era, he made clear he would support her, rather than an overt moderniser, as the next leader. She in turn delivered him the role he had always coveted – to Number 11 after the departure of George Osborne, and after his “safe hands” stints at the Foreign Office, Defence and Transport. |
| But relations soon soured. In essence, the PM desired someone to replicate her own position – noncommittal on the final form of Brexit. The replicant rebelled. In a series of private meetings three months after he took the job, his aversion to her tilt towards a harder Brexit strategy became clear. She responded by giving him tepid support when under fire from Leavers. | But relations soon soured. In essence, the PM desired someone to replicate her own position – noncommittal on the final form of Brexit. The replicant rebelled. In a series of private meetings three months after he took the job, his aversion to her tilt towards a harder Brexit strategy became clear. She responded by giving him tepid support when under fire from Leavers. |
| Her subsequent refusal to say whether she would keep him as chancellor during the election infuriated him. Rumoured to have texted Boris Johnson in the hours after the disappointing election result to offer support if Johnson ran for PM, Hammond had effectively cut his ties with his oldest political ally with some ruthlessness. When the story emerged in Tim Shipman’s book on the Brexit wars, he barely bothered to disclaim it. The underlying cause of rancour is Hammond’s adherence to a soft Brexit, remaining as closely tied to the EU single market as possible and a gradual transition, lasting up to four years. | Her subsequent refusal to say whether she would keep him as chancellor during the election infuriated him. Rumoured to have texted Boris Johnson in the hours after the disappointing election result to offer support if Johnson ran for PM, Hammond had effectively cut his ties with his oldest political ally with some ruthlessness. When the story emerged in Tim Shipman’s book on the Brexit wars, he barely bothered to disclaim it. The underlying cause of rancour is Hammond’s adherence to a soft Brexit, remaining as closely tied to the EU single market as possible and a gradual transition, lasting up to four years. |
| Control of the purse strings, in the run-up to the budget next month, is his most powerful card. It is also the role that most impresses other finance ministers in Europe, who may berate Britain for leaving, but are concerned about a looming gap in strapped EU budgets after departure. | Control of the purse strings, in the run-up to the budget next month, is his most powerful card. It is also the role that most impresses other finance ministers in Europe, who may berate Britain for leaving, but are concerned about a looming gap in strapped EU budgets after departure. |
| May has tried to avoid collisions by fudging the hard/soft Brexit divide, telling MPs anxious for funds to be committed to facilitate a “no deal option” that “if money needs to be spent it will be spent” . Hammond, however, has told Number 10 that any sense of a move towards hard Brexit as a likely outcome would endanger Britain’s financial services. | May has tried to avoid collisions by fudging the hard/soft Brexit divide, telling MPs anxious for funds to be committed to facilitate a “no deal option” that “if money needs to be spent it will be spent” . Hammond, however, has told Number 10 that any sense of a move towards hard Brexit as a likely outcome would endanger Britain’s financial services. |
| He believes that endangering the future of Britain’s financial services is the outcome of Brexit to be most avoided | He believes that endangering the future of Britain’s financial services is the outcome of Brexit to be most avoided |
| Hammond’s style is privately wry (he’s a better “date” for incisive political gossip then his ascetic appearance suggests). But an aloof manner at the cabinet table can irk colleagues. The lofty remark that earmarking expenditure was “potentially nugatory” infuriated pro Brexiter colleagues, with its strong hint that he does not take a no-deal option seriously. Senior Treasury people are made “very aware that it is the outcome he wishes to avoid”, confides one of their number. | Hammond’s style is privately wry (he’s a better “date” for incisive political gossip then his ascetic appearance suggests). But an aloof manner at the cabinet table can irk colleagues. The lofty remark that earmarking expenditure was “potentially nugatory” infuriated pro Brexiter colleagues, with its strong hint that he does not take a no-deal option seriously. Senior Treasury people are made “very aware that it is the outcome he wishes to avoid”, confides one of their number. |
| Instead, Hammond is adamant that he needs to focus on a transition deal, to be agreed by the first quarter of 2018. For all the pratfalls, he still believes that this is the most likely option and that building up a war chest for a no-deal outcome is a waste of political and financial capital. | Instead, Hammond is adamant that he needs to focus on a transition deal, to be agreed by the first quarter of 2018. For all the pratfalls, he still believes that this is the most likely option and that building up a war chest for a no-deal outcome is a waste of political and financial capital. |
| There is principle in the muddle. He truly believes that endangering the future of Britain’s financial services is the outcome of Brexit to be most urgently avoided. That has put him on a collision course with the Brexit secretary, David Davis, who thinks the argument is oversold and may also have an eye on the chancellor’s seat. | There is principle in the muddle. He truly believes that endangering the future of Britain’s financial services is the outcome of Brexit to be most urgently avoided. That has put him on a collision course with the Brexit secretary, David Davis, who thinks the argument is oversold and may also have an eye on the chancellor’s seat. |
| As low as shares in the Hammond brand have fallen these days, he is taking punishment on his stance that other Remainers prefer to duck. According to one of a handful of senior allies: “The problem Hammond presents is that he has made up his mind on how we should do Brexit and that annoys everyone else who is on the fence.” | As low as shares in the Hammond brand have fallen these days, he is taking punishment on his stance that other Remainers prefer to duck. According to one of a handful of senior allies: “The problem Hammond presents is that he has made up his mind on how we should do Brexit and that annoys everyone else who is on the fence.” |
| Hard Brexit, to his mind, is a code for chaos. That has become a powerful wedge issue in cabinet, with Boris Johnson, now ensconced in Hammond’s old Foreign Office role, leading the counter-charge. The two could not be more different in style. Hammond dealt diligently with budget reorganisation at the MoD and enjoyed grating away on British input into the Iran deal, as well as the legal and ethical knots of how far to push for the return of Guantánamo detainees. His response to difficult issues tends to be to make the language as boring as possible. But a gathering tide of discontent after the poor summer election result has undermined such practised managerialism. | Hard Brexit, to his mind, is a code for chaos. That has become a powerful wedge issue in cabinet, with Boris Johnson, now ensconced in Hammond’s old Foreign Office role, leading the counter-charge. The two could not be more different in style. Hammond dealt diligently with budget reorganisation at the MoD and enjoyed grating away on British input into the Iran deal, as well as the legal and ethical knots of how far to push for the return of Guantánamo detainees. His response to difficult issues tends to be to make the language as boring as possible. But a gathering tide of discontent after the poor summer election result has undermined such practised managerialism. |
| If the “enemy” line was a blooper – “for a safe pair of hands, he does tend to drop things quite a lot,” groans a cabinet colleague – it springs from a desire to show more hardline colleagues that he does see negotiations as a real tussle and that being in favour of soft Brexit is not the same as caving in to Brussels. | If the “enemy” line was a blooper – “for a safe pair of hands, he does tend to drop things quite a lot,” groans a cabinet colleague – it springs from a desire to show more hardline colleagues that he does see negotiations as a real tussle and that being in favour of soft Brexit is not the same as caving in to Brussels. |
| Last week, May was being urged by some senior backbenchers to sack Johnson and Hammond and promote Michael Fallon, her most loyal cabinet supporter, and the health secretary, Jeremy Hunt, to the posts. In the short term, Hammond will probably hang on to the Treasury red box. A dismissal in the immediate run-up to a budget would be another dent to economic confidence in battered Blighty plc – and unleash another bout of warfare May would be unlikely to survive. | Last week, May was being urged by some senior backbenchers to sack Johnson and Hammond and promote Michael Fallon, her most loyal cabinet supporter, and the health secretary, Jeremy Hunt, to the posts. In the short term, Hammond will probably hang on to the Treasury red box. A dismissal in the immediate run-up to a budget would be another dent to economic confidence in battered Blighty plc – and unleash another bout of warfare May would be unlikely to survive. |
| The looming irony of his dramatic time in office is that Hammond has achievements under his belt. He persuaded May to relax spending targets fast, giving him more room for manoeuvre on balancing spending outside London. Inward investment is healthy and an elusive transitional EU deal is still within his grasp. In ordinary times, that would look like a modestly good record for the Number 11 incumbent. Instead, Box Office Phil has inherited a horror show. | The looming irony of his dramatic time in office is that Hammond has achievements under his belt. He persuaded May to relax spending targets fast, giving him more room for manoeuvre on balancing spending outside London. Inward investment is healthy and an elusive transitional EU deal is still within his grasp. In ordinary times, that would look like a modestly good record for the Number 11 incumbent. Instead, Box Office Phil has inherited a horror show. |
| Anne McElvoy is senior editor at the Economist | Anne McElvoy is senior editor at the Economist |
| THE HAMMOND FILE | THE HAMMOND FILE |
| Born Philip Anthony Hammond, 4 December 1955, in Epping, Essex. Studied PPE at Oxford. Married with two daughters and a son. | Born Philip Anthony Hammond, 4 December 1955, in Epping, Essex. Studied PPE at Oxford. Married with two daughters and a son. |
| Best of times Has acquired plenty of high office experience in a short amount of time - serving as secretary of state for defence and foreign and commonwealth affairs before becoming chancellor. | Best of times Has acquired plenty of high office experience in a short amount of time - serving as secretary of state for defence and foreign and commonwealth affairs before becoming chancellor. |
| Worst of times It’s possible that it could also be described as a great challenge and honour, but trying to chart a path through the cabinet’s warring factions on Brexit cannot be much fun. | Worst of times It’s possible that it could also be described as a great challenge and honour, but trying to chart a path through the cabinet’s warring factions on Brexit cannot be much fun. |
| What he says “Britain is one of the world’s most open economies. More dependent on trade than any other major country. Our success depends on our competitiveness and our competitiveness depends on raising our productivity, as our competitors are raising theirs.” | What he says “Britain is one of the world’s most open economies. More dependent on trade than any other major country. Our success depends on our competitiveness and our competitiveness depends on raising our productivity, as our competitors are raising theirs.” |
| What they say “He looked like Johnny Depp back in his pomp and used to arrive in class in a leather trench coat with the Guardian under his arm.” Richard Madeley, who was at school with Hammond. | What they say “He looked like Johnny Depp back in his pomp and used to arrive in class in a leather trench coat with the Guardian under his arm.” Richard Madeley, who was at school with Hammond. |
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