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| Venezuelan Opposition Denounces Latest Vote as Ruling Party Makes Gains | Venezuelan Opposition Denounces Latest Vote as Ruling Party Makes Gains |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| CARACAS, Venezuela — For members of Venezuela’s opposition, the big question heading into Sunday’s elections seemed less about whether they would win than how much power they would be allowed to wield once they did. | CARACAS, Venezuela — For members of Venezuela’s opposition, the big question heading into Sunday’s elections seemed less about whether they would win than how much power they would be allowed to wield once they did. |
| Widespread dissatisfaction with President Nicolás Maduro’s ruling party was plain to see. Violent demonstrations had taken over the streets for months, while many thousands of Venezuelans had fled the country to escape scarcities of food and medicine, rampant violence and a triple-digit inflation. Polls had predicted that opposition candidates could nearly sweep the board in Sunday’s gubernatorial races, taking as many as 18 of the nation’s 23 statehouses. | |
| Yet the result was the opposite: Candidates aligned with the president won at least 17 state races, some by wide margins. Opposition candidates took only five. They even lost in states that were considered overwhelmingly pro-opposition. | Yet the result was the opposite: Candidates aligned with the president won at least 17 state races, some by wide margins. Opposition candidates took only five. They even lost in states that were considered overwhelmingly pro-opposition. |
| The results shocked the country and, according to Venezuelan and foreign analysts, raised new questions about the integrity of Venezuela’s electoral system. | The results shocked the country and, according to Venezuelan and foreign analysts, raised new questions about the integrity of Venezuela’s electoral system. |
| “The result is another sham,” said Nicholas Watson, senior vice president of Teneo Intelligence, a business consultancy. He said that the ruling party’s claim to winning 54 percent of the vote was “inconceivable” and that the loss of opposition stronghold states like Miranda and Barinas was “simply implausible.” | “The result is another sham,” said Nicholas Watson, senior vice president of Teneo Intelligence, a business consultancy. He said that the ruling party’s claim to winning 54 percent of the vote was “inconceivable” and that the loss of opposition stronghold states like Miranda and Barinas was “simply implausible.” |
| Venezuela’s democratic credentials have been under question since this summer. Mr. Maduro greatly consolidated power in July, creating a new governing assembly that dissolved the opposition-controlled legislature and now rules virtually unchecked. | Venezuela’s democratic credentials have been under question since this summer. Mr. Maduro greatly consolidated power in July, creating a new governing assembly that dissolved the opposition-controlled legislature and now rules virtually unchecked. |
| Mr. Maduro’s government has already been accused of manipulating the results of that election. The software company involved in setting up Venezuela’s voting systems for the vote said that the tally had been inflated by at least one million votes. | Mr. Maduro’s government has already been accused of manipulating the results of that election. The software company involved in setting up Venezuela’s voting systems for the vote said that the tally had been inflated by at least one million votes. |
| In that election, a broad victory for Mr. Maduro’s party had been a foregone conclusion because the opposition refused to participate. But Sunday’s election was a different story altogether. Turnout was large, with more than 61 percent of eligible voters casting ballots, according to federal elections officials, raising broad doubts about the fairness of the outcome. | In that election, a broad victory for Mr. Maduro’s party had been a foregone conclusion because the opposition refused to participate. But Sunday’s election was a different story altogether. Turnout was large, with more than 61 percent of eligible voters casting ballots, according to federal elections officials, raising broad doubts about the fairness of the outcome. |
| José Ignacio Hernández, a law professor at Central University of Venezuela, said the results appeared “statistically unlikely” and reflected an election “that is neither free nor transparent.” | José Ignacio Hernández, a law professor at Central University of Venezuela, said the results appeared “statistically unlikely” and reflected an election “that is neither free nor transparent.” |
| “The problem is proving it,” he continued. “The declared results are not rational. Among other factors, I think there was manipulation.” | “The problem is proving it,” he continued. “The declared results are not rational. Among other factors, I think there was manipulation.” |
| Opposition leaders have refused to endorse the results, demanding an audit and calling on their candidates to take their protests to the street. But they have not offered any evidence of fraud. | Opposition leaders have refused to endorse the results, demanding an audit and calling on their candidates to take their protests to the street. But they have not offered any evidence of fraud. |
| Several analysts said that fraud at the ballot box should have been identifiable by the opposition. Venezuelan election law allows for monitors of both sides to observe the voting and to double check a percentage of the results on election day through an auditing system. | Several analysts said that fraud at the ballot box should have been identifiable by the opposition. Venezuelan election law allows for monitors of both sides to observe the voting and to double check a percentage of the results on election day through an auditing system. |
| Yet the absence of any such claims on Monday suggested that the opposition had detected no evidence of voting fraud through the audit system. | Yet the absence of any such claims on Monday suggested that the opposition had detected no evidence of voting fraud through the audit system. |
| In any case, Mr. Watson said, legal challenges would be likely to come to nothing in government-controlled courts. | In any case, Mr. Watson said, legal challenges would be likely to come to nothing in government-controlled courts. |
| “The rules of the game have never been fair, and Chavismo has been tilting the playing field away from the opposition for years now,” he said, referring to the movement founded by Mr. Maduro’s predecessor, former President Hugo Chávez. | “The rules of the game have never been fair, and Chavismo has been tilting the playing field away from the opposition for years now,” he said, referring to the movement founded by Mr. Maduro’s predecessor, former President Hugo Chávez. |
| The results left the opposition foundering, its future in doubt. | The results left the opposition foundering, its future in doubt. |
| Opposition leaders suspected that even if they swept the statehouses, Mr. Maduro’s constituent assembly, which now governs the country, would ensure that their governorships were neutered. They decided to participate anyway, hoping that overwhelming victories across the country would be their best chance to loosen Mr. Maduro’s authoritarian grip. | Opposition leaders suspected that even if they swept the statehouses, Mr. Maduro’s constituent assembly, which now governs the country, would ensure that their governorships were neutered. They decided to participate anyway, hoping that overwhelming victories across the country would be their best chance to loosen Mr. Maduro’s authoritarian grip. |
| But now, having lost badly in the regional elections, the future of the opposition coalition hangs in the balance, analysts said. | But now, having lost badly in the regional elections, the future of the opposition coalition hangs in the balance, analysts said. |
| “This is a catastrophe for the opposition,” said David Smilde, a sociology professor at Tulane University who has researched Venezuela for 25 years. “I think they’re going to pay a real price with Venezuelans.” | “This is a catastrophe for the opposition,” said David Smilde, a sociology professor at Tulane University who has researched Venezuela for 25 years. “I think they’re going to pay a real price with Venezuelans.” |
| At an evening news conference on Monday, Ángel Oropeza, general coordinator of the opposition coalition – the Democratic Unity Roundtable, known as M.U.D., the initials of its name in Spanish — called for a “quantitative and qualitative” audit “of all the electoral processes, with full, trustworthy, international verification.” | At an evening news conference on Monday, Ángel Oropeza, general coordinator of the opposition coalition – the Democratic Unity Roundtable, known as M.U.D., the initials of its name in Spanish — called for a “quantitative and qualitative” audit “of all the electoral processes, with full, trustworthy, international verification.” |
| At a separate news conference, Carlos Ocariz, the candidate for governor of Miranda, a heavily anti-Maduro state that he was expected to win easily, said the opposition was up against “an absolutely fraudulent system.” | At a separate news conference, Carlos Ocariz, the candidate for governor of Miranda, a heavily anti-Maduro state that he was expected to win easily, said the opposition was up against “an absolutely fraudulent system.” |
| “We have faced it for a long time,” Mr. Ocariz added. | “We have faced it for a long time,” Mr. Ocariz added. |
| But while he offered no evidence of voting fraud, he pointed to several of the decisions made by federal electoral officials that, critics said, were intended to confuse voters or suppress the vote. | But while he offered no evidence of voting fraud, he pointed to several of the decisions made by federal electoral officials that, critics said, were intended to confuse voters or suppress the vote. |
| Last week, the government relocated more than 200 voting sites and printed ballots that included the names of opposition candidates who had lost in the primaries. Opposition supporters also accused the government of purposely delaying the opening of some polling sites in predominantly anti-Maduro neighborhoods to dissuade opposition voters by causing them to wait hours. | Last week, the government relocated more than 200 voting sites and printed ballots that included the names of opposition candidates who had lost in the primaries. Opposition supporters also accused the government of purposely delaying the opening of some polling sites in predominantly anti-Maduro neighborhoods to dissuade opposition voters by causing them to wait hours. |
| But Mr. Ocariz also acknowledged the impact of an abstention campaign promoted by some members of the opposition who had argued that participation would only reaffirm Mr. Maduro’s government by making Venezuela appear democratic. | But Mr. Ocariz also acknowledged the impact of an abstention campaign promoted by some members of the opposition who had argued that participation would only reaffirm Mr. Maduro’s government by making Venezuela appear democratic. |
| “We always said: facing a fraudulent system, we have to vote,” Mr. Ocariz said. | “We always said: facing a fraudulent system, we have to vote,” Mr. Ocariz said. |
| Sunday’s results have left opposition supporters deeply disillusioned. Many voters were already dispirited, dragging themselves to the polls with whatever hope they could muster. The election results could knock out whatever enthusiasm was left for participation in the system, or perhaps even for protest, analysts said. | Sunday’s results have left opposition supporters deeply disillusioned. Many voters were already dispirited, dragging themselves to the polls with whatever hope they could muster. The election results could knock out whatever enthusiasm was left for participation in the system, or perhaps even for protest, analysts said. |
| Should the opposition present convincing evidence of electoral fraud, they might be able to resuscitate the movement and spur greater international support, including harsher sanctions against the Maduro administration, analysts said. | Should the opposition present convincing evidence of electoral fraud, they might be able to resuscitate the movement and spur greater international support, including harsher sanctions against the Maduro administration, analysts said. |
| In the absence of such a response, however, the opposition coalition – which was already riven by competing agendas, political philosophies and egos – could collapse. | In the absence of such a response, however, the opposition coalition – which was already riven by competing agendas, political philosophies and egos – could collapse. |
| “If the M.U.D. is not able to demonstrate the fraud, I think the public backlash will be enormous,” said Dimitris Pantoulas, a political consultant in Caracas, the capital. “It will be the last election for the M.U.D., especially if people see that the M.U.D. can’t defend the vote.” | “If the M.U.D. is not able to demonstrate the fraud, I think the public backlash will be enormous,” said Dimitris Pantoulas, a political consultant in Caracas, the capital. “It will be the last election for the M.U.D., especially if people see that the M.U.D. can’t defend the vote.” |
| The crumbling of the opposition, he predicted, would then help to ensure a resounding victory for the ruling party in presidential elections next year. | The crumbling of the opposition, he predicted, would then help to ensure a resounding victory for the ruling party in presidential elections next year. |
| Mr. Watson, however, said a breakup of the opposition was not inevitable. | Mr. Watson, however, said a breakup of the opposition was not inevitable. |
| “The risk of splitting up still acts as a cohesive glue that keeps them all together, because the alternative remains pretty horrendous,” he said. “They understand they’re on a cliff’s edge.” | “The risk of splitting up still acts as a cohesive glue that keeps them all together, because the alternative remains pretty horrendous,” he said. “They understand they’re on a cliff’s edge.” |