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Lebanon lurches back to the brink | Lebanon lurches back to the brink |
(about 17 hours later) | |
By Martin Asser BBC News The bombing is a sickening reminder of past atrocities and possible future traumas | By Martin Asser BBC News The bombing is a sickening reminder of past atrocities and possible future traumas |
The bombing of a civilian bus in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli could hardly have come at a more sensitive time. | The bombing of a civilian bus in the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli could hardly have come at a more sensitive time. |
It was less than 24 hours after a parliamentary vote of confidence in the new unity cabinet, which hopes to end months of sectarian infighting. | It was less than 24 hours after a parliamentary vote of confidence in the new unity cabinet, which hopes to end months of sectarian infighting. |
And it was just hours before the recently-installed president, Michel Suleiman, went to Syria hoping to start a healing process after decades of aggravation between the two unevenly-matched Arab neighbours. | And it was just hours before the recently-installed president, Michel Suleiman, went to Syria hoping to start a healing process after decades of aggravation between the two unevenly-matched Arab neighbours. |
The bombing, which killed at least 14 people, also hit an area that has rapidly become Lebanon's most volatile security hotspot. | |
Tripoli has a large Sunni Muslim majority who, culturally at least, seem very Syrian - given the city's proximity to Syria's coastal cities. | Tripoli has a large Sunni Muslim majority who, culturally at least, seem very Syrian - given the city's proximity to Syria's coastal cities. |
But in fact they are mostly staunch supporters of Lebanon's pro-Western, anti-Syrian bloc. | But in fact they are mostly staunch supporters of Lebanon's pro-Western, anti-Syrian bloc. |
There is also a small enclave of Alawites in Tripoli's poverty-ridden northern suburbs. | There is also a small enclave of Alawites in Tripoli's poverty-ridden northern suburbs. |
Their sect is an offshoot of Shia Islam based mainly in Syria - its president, Bashar al-Assad, is a member - and they are allied to the powerful pro-Syrian political and militant movement, Hezbollah. | Their sect is an offshoot of Shia Islam based mainly in Syria - its president, Bashar al-Assad, is a member - and they are allied to the powerful pro-Syrian political and militant movement, Hezbollah. |
In more politically stable times, this divide might not have produced serious problems. | In more politically stable times, this divide might not have produced serious problems. |
But in the past months bitter street fighting has erupted between Tripoli's pro-Syrian Alawite enclave, Jabal Mohsen, and its neighbour, the mainly Sunni, pro-Syrian Bab Tibbaneh, leaving more than 20 dead. | But in the past months bitter street fighting has erupted between Tripoli's pro-Syrian Alawite enclave, Jabal Mohsen, and its neighbour, the mainly Sunni, pro-Syrian Bab Tibbaneh, leaving more than 20 dead. |
Another Tripoli problem in the last 12 months has been the emergence of Sunni Muslim extremists, who are anti-everyone except al-Qaeda, in the Nahr al-Bared Palestinian refugee camp, just north of Tripoli. | Another Tripoli problem in the last 12 months has been the emergence of Sunni Muslim extremists, who are anti-everyone except al-Qaeda, in the Nahr al-Bared Palestinian refugee camp, just north of Tripoli. |
It took months for the Lebanese army to quell the so-called Fatah al-Islam uprising last year. The camp was bombed to smithereens and hundreds were killed, and it is far from clear that the extremists were mopped up entirely. | It took months for the Lebanese army to quell the so-called Fatah al-Islam uprising last year. The camp was bombed to smithereens and hundreds were killed, and it is far from clear that the extremists were mopped up entirely. |
Political settlement | Political settlement |
Wednesday's bombing comes at a time when Lebanon could be about to turn a corner and leave behind the last four traumatic years. | Wednesday's bombing comes at a time when Lebanon could be about to turn a corner and leave behind the last four traumatic years. |
A Qatari-mediated accord fuelled some optimism Lebanon's strife could be brought to an end The trouble started in 2004 with rumblings against Syria's continued domination long after the 1975-90 civil war, which Syrian troops helped bring to an end. | A Qatari-mediated accord fuelled some optimism Lebanon's strife could be brought to an end The trouble started in 2004 with rumblings against Syria's continued domination long after the 1975-90 civil war, which Syrian troops helped bring to an end. |
And it literally exploded onto the world's consciousness with the assassination of the former PM, and anti-Syrian figurehead, Rafik Hariri in 2005. | And it literally exploded onto the world's consciousness with the assassination of the former PM, and anti-Syrian figurehead, Rafik Hariri in 2005. |
Since then Lebanon has seen a string of political assassinations, a devastating war between Hezbollah and Israel, militia battles, and a lengthy wrangle over appointing a president. | Since then Lebanon has seen a string of political assassinations, a devastating war between Hezbollah and Israel, militia battles, and a lengthy wrangle over appointing a president. |
But for the most part there has been a merciful absence of the kind of indiscriminate terrorist atrocity seen in Tripoli on Wednesday. | But for the most part there has been a merciful absence of the kind of indiscriminate terrorist atrocity seen in Tripoli on Wednesday. |
Then, in May 2008, a Qatari-mediated accord fuelled some optimism that the strife could be brought to an end. | Then, in May 2008, a Qatari-mediated accord fuelled some optimism that the strife could be brought to an end. |
Former army chief Mr Suleiman appeared a reassuringly unifying figure. The unity deal allowed government to be shared between a pro-Western majority and a veto-empowered Hezbollah-led minority. | Former army chief Mr Suleiman appeared a reassuringly unifying figure. The unity deal allowed government to be shared between a pro-Western majority and a veto-empowered Hezbollah-led minority. |
The rival camps seemed to have set their disputes aside for later, over issues such as Hezbollah's sizeable arsenal and redistribution of electoral constituencies. | The rival camps seemed to have set their disputes aside for later, over issues such as Hezbollah's sizeable arsenal and redistribution of electoral constituencies. |
Shadowy group | Shadowy group |
Unfortunately it tends to be at transitional times like this that the dark figures behind the violence in Lebanon strike. | Unfortunately it tends to be at transitional times like this that the dark figures behind the violence in Lebanon strike. |
Apportioning blame for a bombing can be a quick process in Lebanon - usually informed by political allegiances rather than hard facts as the perpetrators seem never to be caught. | Apportioning blame for a bombing can be a quick process in Lebanon - usually informed by political allegiances rather than hard facts as the perpetrators seem never to be caught. |
This attack is different however, as it did not target a political figure, but rather a city where many fear the on-going violence could drag Lebanon back to the turmoil seen before the May accord. | This attack is different however, as it did not target a political figure, but rather a city where many fear the on-going violence could drag Lebanon back to the turmoil seen before the May accord. |
The bus had just arrived in Tripoli from the northern Akkar region. Most of the victims seem to have been off-duty soldiers coming from an area known for its strong military traditions. | The bus had just arrived in Tripoli from the northern Akkar region. Most of the victims seem to have been off-duty soldiers coming from an area known for its strong military traditions. |
Suspicions therefore could focus on Fatah al-Islam, or another shadowy Sunni extremist group, perhaps wanting vengeance for the battle of Nahr al-Bared or hoping to sow seeds of conflict between Shias and mainstream Sunnis. | Suspicions therefore could focus on Fatah al-Islam, or another shadowy Sunni extremist group, perhaps wanting vengeance for the battle of Nahr al-Bared or hoping to sow seeds of conflict between Shias and mainstream Sunnis. |
The timing could also suggest a link to Lebanon's political internal divisions, perhaps a group with an interest in prolonging the instability or warding off a rapprochement with Syria. | The timing could also suggest a link to Lebanon's political internal divisions, perhaps a group with an interest in prolonging the instability or warding off a rapprochement with Syria. |