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UK inflation at highest since April 2012 | UK inflation at highest since April 2012 |
(35 minutes later) | |
The UK's key inflation rate climbed to 3% in September from 2.9% in August, its highest for more than five years. | |
The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) was last at 3% in April 2012, but has been driven higher by increases in transport and food prices. | |
The increase in inflation raises the likelihood of an increase in interest rates next month. | |
The figures are significant because state pension payments from April 2018 will rise in line with September's CPI. | |
Interest rate rise 'should be delayed' | |
Inflation 'to cause £300 benefit squeeze' | |
Business rates will go up by September's Retail Prices Index (RPI) of 3.9%. | |
The fall in the pound since last year's Brexit vote has helped to push up inflation. | |
The basic state pension is protected by the "triple lock" guarantee which means it will go up next April by a rate equal to September 2017's CPI, earnings growth or 2.5% whichever is the greatest. | |
However, Chancellor Philip Hammond could amend that in next month's Budget. | |
Letter to chancellor | |
At the moment, the full new state pension is £159.55 per week, equivalent to £8,296.60 per year. | |
Bank of England, Mark Carney, has narrowly avoided having to write a letter to the chancellor, only necessary if inflation reaches more than 1% either side of the 2% target. | |
ONS Head of Inflation Mike Prestwood said: "Food prices and a range of transport costs helped to push up inflation in September. These effects were partly offset by clothing prices that rose less strongly than this time last year." | |
Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: "The tick upwards in inflation will increase expectations of a rate rise from the Bank of England later on this year, stoked by a flurry of hawkish rhetoric coming from Threadneedle Street." | |
However, he added, it is not a foregone conclusion, "so it's probably best not to count those chickens until they're hatched". | |
Analysis: Brian Milligan, Personal Finance reporter | |
Pensioners' delight | |
Pensioners will be celebrating again. Today's CPI inflation figure means they will get a 3% rise next April, their largest pension increase for six years. | |
Those on the new state pension will see their weekly income rise to £164. | |
Compare that to workers, who've seen their earnings rise by 2.1% over the last year. | |
This is all thanks to the triple lock, which sees the state pension rise by the highest of earnings, prices or 2.5%. | |
Food for thought for the Chancellor, perhaps, who's reported to be considering tax concessions for younger people in his forthcoming budget, to even up the inter-generational unfairness that the triple lock has contributed to. | |
The 2.5% element of the triple lock is due to be dropped in 2021. |