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| Pre-sex HIV drug 'no-brainer' for NHS | |
| (about 9 hours later) | |
| A drug to dramatically cut the risk of HIV infection during sex would save the UK around £1bn over the next 80 years, say scientists. | A drug to dramatically cut the risk of HIV infection during sex would save the UK around £1bn over the next 80 years, say scientists. |
| The team at University College London says Prep, or pre-exposure prophylaxis, is a "no-brainer" for the NHS. | The team at University College London says Prep, or pre-exposure prophylaxis, is a "no-brainer" for the NHS. |
| The study predicts that giving Prep to men who have sex with men would prevent one in four HIV cases. | The study predicts that giving Prep to men who have sex with men would prevent one in four HIV cases. |
| NHS England is currently funding a trial of Prep in 10,000 patients, but does not offer the treatment routinely. | NHS England is currently funding a trial of Prep in 10,000 patients, but does not offer the treatment routinely. |
| Prep is already available in Scotland. The health service in England fought against paying for Prep in the courts, but agreed to trialling it in selected clinics. | Prep is already available in Scotland. The health service in England fought against paying for Prep in the courts, but agreed to trialling it in selected clinics. |
| Preventive pills | Preventive pills |
| Prep disables HIV before it gets a stranglehold in the body and trials show it can cut the risk of being infected by up to 86%. | Prep disables HIV before it gets a stranglehold in the body and trials show it can cut the risk of being infected by up to 86%. |
| The financial analysis, published in the Lancet Infectious Diseases, looked at the cost-effectiveness of a national roll-out of Prep, focusing on the highest risk group - men who have sex with men. | The financial analysis, published in the Lancet Infectious Diseases, looked at the cost-effectiveness of a national roll-out of Prep, focusing on the highest risk group - men who have sex with men. |
| It showed offering Prep would cost the NHS money initially as it paid for both Prep and lifelong care for people already infected with HIV. | It showed offering Prep would cost the NHS money initially as it paid for both Prep and lifelong care for people already infected with HIV. |
| It could take up to 40 years to become cost-effective, when savings from the falling number of new HIV cases equal the cost of Prep. | It could take up to 40 years to become cost-effective, when savings from the falling number of new HIV cases equal the cost of Prep. |
| Eventually, after 80 years, the pills would deliver a saving of £1bn, say the researchers. | Eventually, after 80 years, the pills would deliver a saving of £1bn, say the researchers. |
| Dr Alison Rodger, part of the UCL team, told the BBC: "Not only is it a highly effective treatment, it will save money. It's a no-brainer so it's a good thing to do." | Dr Alison Rodger, part of the UCL team, told the BBC: "Not only is it a highly effective treatment, it will save money. It's a no-brainer so it's a good thing to do." |
| The researchers' mathematical model predicted: | The researchers' mathematical model predicted: |
| It is still cost-effective with a daily Prep pill, but it takes longer to become cost-effective. Both options are being investigated as part of the NHS England trial. | It is still cost-effective with a daily Prep pill, but it takes longer to become cost-effective. Both options are being investigated as part of the NHS England trial. |
| The other major unknown is the long-term cost of the drugs, which may fall as cheaper alternatives become available. | The other major unknown is the long-term cost of the drugs, which may fall as cheaper alternatives become available. |
| Dr Michael Brady, medical director at the Terrence Higgins Trust, said: "It is important that all who need Prep can access it, and evidence like this reinforces the need for Prep to be fully commissioned and given a long-term, sustainable home on the NHS in England." | Dr Michael Brady, medical director at the Terrence Higgins Trust, said: "It is important that all who need Prep can access it, and evidence like this reinforces the need for Prep to be fully commissioned and given a long-term, sustainable home on the NHS in England." |
| Dr Paul Revill, from the centre of health economics at the University of York, said the NHS needed to be "far sighted [and] invest now and reap long-term gains". | Dr Paul Revill, from the centre of health economics at the University of York, said the NHS needed to be "far sighted [and] invest now and reap long-term gains". |
| He added: "With a combination of frequent HIV testing, immediate treatment, and Prep availability, there is now the prospect of bending the curve of new HIV infections downwards in a way that did not seem feasible just a few years ago." | He added: "With a combination of frequent HIV testing, immediate treatment, and Prep availability, there is now the prospect of bending the curve of new HIV infections downwards in a way that did not seem feasible just a few years ago." |
| A spokesperson for NHS England said: "The Lancet study makes an important contribution to the growing evidence for cost effectiveness of PrEP, highlighting the factors which will determine this, such as price and duration on PrEP." | A spokesperson for NHS England said: "The Lancet study makes an important contribution to the growing evidence for cost effectiveness of PrEP, highlighting the factors which will determine this, such as price and duration on PrEP." |
| Follow James on Twitter. | Follow James on Twitter. |