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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/oct/18/uk-unemployment-report-pay-inflation-rio-tinto-business-live
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| Version 0 | Version 1 |
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| UK unemployment report expected to show pay lagging inflation – business live | UK unemployment report expected to show pay lagging inflation – business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 9.27am BST | |
| 09:27 | |
| Over in Frankfurt, ECB president Mario Draghi is making another push for ‘structural reforms’ in the eurozone. | |
| Draghi’s arguing (once again) that political leaders have a ‘window of opportunity’ to reform their economies, thanks to the eurozone’s current record low interest rates and QE programme. | |
| Usually, these talks focus on labour market reforms - which can be code for making it easier to hire and fire staff. Draghi, though, is arguing for wider reforms to the way businesses work -- and blasting ‘vested interests’ who are holding things back. | |
| Unlike what happened in the years even before the crisis, labour market reforms must be preceded – or least accompanied by – product market reforms, otherwise wage adjustments will not be fully passed on to prices. Instead, profit mark-ups will rise and the purchasing power of households will fall, thereby worsening the economic conditions of consumers and aggravating any recession. | |
| During the crisis, because of powerful vested interests, labour market reforms were not accompanied by product market reforms in some countries, and so wages fell and prices did not adjust in tandem. | |
| Strangely low turnout as #ECB #Draghi asks whether structural reforms mean “torture”. (Cue: he doesn’t think they do) pic.twitter.com/t4udGWMh7m | |
| 9.09am BST | |
| 09:09 | |
| We have fresh evidence that London’s property market is cooling, from estate agent Foxtons. | |
| Foxtons has told the City that conditions remained “challenging’ in the last quarter Sales in July to September dropped to £10.3m, from £12.3m a year ago. | |
| UK RNS today #2 - Foxtons - inline but required cost control as 'modest growth' and downward pressure on rents | |
| 8.56am BST | |
| 08:56 | |
| Rob Holdsworth of the Resolution Foundation tweets: | |
| Yesterday’s inflation figures were bad for everyone under the age of 65. This morning we should get some good news on jobs - another record? | |
| The UK employment juggernaut expected to rumble on - consensus is for an addition of 150k to employment. pic.twitter.com/nHOiQ7hPw6 | |
| 8.43am BST | 8.43am BST |
| 08:43 | 08:43 |
| Today’s average weekly earnings figures will be ‘key’ for the markets today, says Marc Ostwald of ADM Investor Services: | Today’s average weekly earnings figures will be ‘key’ for the markets today, says Marc Ostwald of ADM Investor Services: |
| No change is seen in headline terms at a still very lowly 2.1% y/y, while the ‘core’ ex-Bonus measure is forecast to dip to 2.0% from 2.1%. | No change is seen in headline terms at a still very lowly 2.1% y/y, while the ‘core’ ex-Bonus measure is forecast to dip to 2.0% from 2.1%. |
| This will leave real earnings deep in negative territory, leaving plenty of room for doubt on whether wages are turning or have turned a corner as some MPC members have claimed, and certainly beg the question on the need for, or the wisdom of a rate hike. | This will leave real earnings deep in negative territory, leaving plenty of room for doubt on whether wages are turning or have turned a corner as some MPC members have claimed, and certainly beg the question on the need for, or the wisdom of a rate hike. |
| No change expected in either measure of the UK unemployment rate. ILO measure for September expected to be 4.3% & claimant count 2.3% pic.twitter.com/yinWc95LNV | No change expected in either measure of the UK unemployment rate. ILO measure for September expected to be 4.3% & claimant count 2.3% pic.twitter.com/yinWc95LNV |
| 8.35am BST | 8.35am BST |
| 08:35 | 08:35 |
| This chart from economist Rupert Seggins shows how UK real wages have been shrinking for several months. | This chart from economist Rupert Seggins shows how UK real wages have been shrinking for several months. |
| UK labour market stats out today and as per usual, the big news happened yesterday with the 3% inflation figure confirming more pay squeeze. pic.twitter.com/13CkopXMUv | UK labour market stats out today and as per usual, the big news happened yesterday with the 3% inflation figure confirming more pay squeeze. pic.twitter.com/13CkopXMUv |
| Today’s earnings data will show show that trend continuing. | Today’s earnings data will show show that trend continuing. |
| 8.07am BST | 8.07am BST |
| 08:07 | 08:07 |
| The agenda: UK jobs report coming up | The agenda: UK jobs report coming up |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| Today we’ll be looking at Britain’s jobs market, and asking why people aren’t being paid more when employment is at record levels. | Today we’ll be looking at Britain’s jobs market, and asking why people aren’t being paid more when employment is at record levels. |
| The latest labour market statistics, due this morning, will probably confirm that headline employment is at record levels, but that pay is still not keeping up with inflation. | The latest labour market statistics, due this morning, will probably confirm that headline employment is at record levels, but that pay is still not keeping up with inflation. |
| City experts predict that that headline unemployment rate remained at just 4.3% in the three months to August. That would be the joint-lowest in 42 years, as the labour market holds up well in the face of Brexit uncertainty. | City experts predict that that headline unemployment rate remained at just 4.3% in the three months to August. That would be the joint-lowest in 42 years, as the labour market holds up well in the face of Brexit uncertainty. |
| But wage growth will probably remain worryingly weak, at around 2.1% (possibly falling to 2.0% per year if you strip out bonuses). That would mean another fall in real wages, as inflation jumped to 3% yesterday. | But wage growth will probably remain worryingly weak, at around 2.1% (possibly falling to 2.0% per year if you strip out bonuses). That would mean another fall in real wages, as inflation jumped to 3% yesterday. |
| This is puzzling economists (in theory, you’d expect wages to rise once labour becomes scarce). But in the world of the Gig Economy, many workers are actually facing uncertain hours, poor conditions and weak wage growth. | This is puzzling economists (in theory, you’d expect wages to rise once labour becomes scarce). But in the world of the Gig Economy, many workers are actually facing uncertain hours, poor conditions and weak wage growth. |
| It all feeds into the wider conundrum of Britain’s weak productivity, and whether the country can actually handle a rise in interest rates. | It all feeds into the wider conundrum of Britain’s weak productivity, and whether the country can actually handle a rise in interest rates. |
| Today’s figures will be closely monitored by economists, business leaders, and investors. | Today’s figures will be closely monitored by economists, business leaders, and investors. |
| Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA, says: | Craig Erlam, Senior Market Analyst at OANDA, says: |
| Once again though, the unemployment data is expected to paint one picture with the rate remaining at 4.3% while average earnings paints an entirely different one, as wages rise by only 2.1%. | Once again though, the unemployment data is expected to paint one picture with the rate remaining at 4.3% while average earnings paints an entirely different one, as wages rise by only 2.1%. |
| Negative earnings growth is one of the factors that is likely to weigh on the economy going forward and makes the BoE’s decision on interest rates all the more difficult. | Negative earnings growth is one of the factors that is likely to weigh on the economy going forward and makes the BoE’s decision on interest rates all the more difficult. |
| Also coming up today | Also coming up today |
| Consumer good giant Reckitt Benckiser, chemicals and paint maker Akzo Nobel, and London estate agent Foxtons are reporting results. | Consumer good giant Reckitt Benckiser, chemicals and paint maker Akzo Nobel, and London estate agent Foxtons are reporting results. |
| Mining giant Rio Tinto is in the spotlight today. Former CEO Tom Albanese and ex-CFO Guy Elliott have been charged with fraud by US officials, over coal assets in Mozambique which were bought for $3.7bn and later sold for just $50m. | Mining giant Rio Tinto is in the spotlight today. Former CEO Tom Albanese and ex-CFO Guy Elliott have been charged with fraud by US officials, over coal assets in Mozambique which were bought for $3.7bn and later sold for just $50m. |
| Albanese and Elliott are accused of inflating the value of the assets. Both men deny any wrongdoing. More on this shortly.... | Albanese and Elliott are accused of inflating the value of the assets. Both men deny any wrongdoing. More on this shortly.... |
| Investors will be keeping an eye on China, as the Chinese party congress begins. President Xi got the ball rolling by hailing the dawn of a “new era” of Chinese politics and power. | Investors will be keeping an eye on China, as the Chinese party congress begins. President Xi got the ball rolling by hailing the dawn of a “new era” of Chinese politics and power. |
| In a speech lasting over three hours, Xi declared: | In a speech lasting over three hours, Xi declared: |
| “This is a new historic juncture in China’s development. | “This is a new historic juncture in China’s development. |
| “The Chinese nation ... has stood up, grown rich, and become strong - and it now embraces the brilliant prospects of rejuvenation ... It will be an era that sees China moving closer to centre stage and making greater contributions to mankind.” | “The Chinese nation ... has stood up, grown rich, and become strong - and it now embraces the brilliant prospects of rejuvenation ... It will be an era that sees China moving closer to centre stage and making greater contributions to mankind.” |
| Wishful thinking in early coverage of Xi's Party Congress speech (now at more than three hours) pic.twitter.com/DIXYZPVys4 | Wishful thinking in early coverage of Xi's Party Congress speech (now at more than three hours) pic.twitter.com/DIXYZPVys4 |
| Here’s the agenda: | Here’s the agenda: |
| 9.10am BST: European Central Bank president Mario Draghi gives a speech in Frankfurt. It’s on “Structural reforms in the euro area”, one of Draghi’s favourite subjects. | 9.10am BST: European Central Bank president Mario Draghi gives a speech in Frankfurt. It’s on “Structural reforms in the euro area”, one of Draghi’s favourite subjects. |
| 9.30am BST: UK labour market report | 9.30am BST: UK labour market report |
| 1.30pm BST: US housing data for September. It’ll show how many building permits were issued, and how many new construction projects began | 1.30pm BST: US housing data for September. It’ll show how many building permits were issued, and how many new construction projects began |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.20am BST | at 8.20am BST |