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Can Jacinda Ardern live up to Helen Clark’s legacy as New Zealand PM? | Can Jacinda Ardern live up to Helen Clark’s legacy as New Zealand PM? |
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Thu 19 Oct 2017 12.54 BST | Thu 19 Oct 2017 12.54 BST |
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Just a few months ago, the New Zealand election was shaping up as a pedestrian and predictable affair. But, jealous perhaps of the global mood for polling drama, it suddenly sparked into life. With just seven weeks to go, and the opposition Labour party deep in the polling doldrums, Jacinda Ardern was elevated to the leadership. | Just a few months ago, the New Zealand election was shaping up as a pedestrian and predictable affair. But, jealous perhaps of the global mood for polling drama, it suddenly sparked into life. With just seven weeks to go, and the opposition Labour party deep in the polling doldrums, Jacinda Ardern was elevated to the leadership. |
The charismatic 37-year-old, Labour’s youngest ever leader, had an immediate impact, sending the party surging in the polls with her “relentlessly positive” approach, making international headlines with acid responses to media inquiries about her plans for motherhood. | The charismatic 37-year-old, Labour’s youngest ever leader, had an immediate impact, sending the party surging in the polls with her “relentlessly positive” approach, making international headlines with acid responses to media inquiries about her plans for motherhood. |
Labour’s policy platform was essentially the same, focused on addressing issues including the housing crisis, child poverty and mental health. But here was an exemplar of the function of leadership: almost palpably, people began to listen. The enthusiasm in New Zealand media was such that one senior minister from the governing National party delivered a television political editor a package containing cheerleader pom-poms. | Labour’s policy platform was essentially the same, focused on addressing issues including the housing crisis, child poverty and mental health. But here was an exemplar of the function of leadership: almost palpably, people began to listen. The enthusiasm in New Zealand media was such that one senior minister from the governing National party delivered a television political editor a package containing cheerleader pom-poms. |
The so-called Jacinda effect, which at one point saw the Labour party, almost unthinkably, overtake National in the polls, began to flail towards the end. In part owing to a strategic blunder over possible tax changes, in part to a cynical and disingenuous attack from National over financial plans, the air escaped from Ardern’s sails. On election night, Bill English’s National party was in the ascendant, and looked destined for a fourth term. | The so-called Jacinda effect, which at one point saw the Labour party, almost unthinkably, overtake National in the polls, began to flail towards the end. In part owing to a strategic blunder over possible tax changes, in part to a cynical and disingenuous attack from National over financial plans, the air escaped from Ardern’s sails. On election night, Bill English’s National party was in the ascendant, and looked destined for a fourth term. |
The calculus shifted again, however, a fortnight after election day, when special votes – among them a large number from late-enrolling young people – delivered Labour and its Green party ally two seats at National’s expense. | The calculus shifted again, however, a fortnight after election day, when special votes – among them a large number from late-enrolling young people – delivered Labour and its Green party ally two seats at National’s expense. |
Under New Zealand’s proportional system, a small populist, protectionist party called New Zealand First, led by the grumpy and magnetic septuagenarian Winston Peters, now had two clear choices: support the status quo or coalesce with Labour, backed by the Greens, and change the government. The most obvious clue to their predilection, apart from polling that showed a large majority of party supporters preferring the latter option, was the slogan on the New Zealand First billboards: “Had enough?” | Under New Zealand’s proportional system, a small populist, protectionist party called New Zealand First, led by the grumpy and magnetic septuagenarian Winston Peters, now had two clear choices: support the status quo or coalesce with Labour, backed by the Greens, and change the government. The most obvious clue to their predilection, apart from polling that showed a large majority of party supporters preferring the latter option, was the slogan on the New Zealand First billboards: “Had enough?” |
A small, populist party had two clear choices: support the status quo or coalesce with Labour, backed by the Greens | A small, populist party had two clear choices: support the status quo or coalesce with Labour, backed by the Greens |
For Bill English, who led the National party to a historic loss 15 years ago, defeat will be a bitter pill to swallow, not least because it is in many ways no defeat at all. As he himself noted after Peters’ attention-grabbing announcement – neither Labour nor National knew until moments before which way Peters was going – there aren’t many democracies in the world where a party winning 44% of the vote would find itself losing an election. | For Bill English, who led the National party to a historic loss 15 years ago, defeat will be a bitter pill to swallow, not least because it is in many ways no defeat at all. As he himself noted after Peters’ attention-grabbing announcement – neither Labour nor National knew until moments before which way Peters was going – there aren’t many democracies in the world where a party winning 44% of the vote would find itself losing an election. |
Should English wish to remain leader, he’ll probably get his MPs’ backing. He led an impressive campaign in which he outperformed just about all expectations. But at the same time, there will be National MPs agitating for a quick change to someone who could match the energy of Ardern – someone like Nikki Kaye, the 37-year-old who recently returned to a ministerial role after overcoming breast cancer, and whose CV includes twice defeating Ardern in the Auckland Central electorate. | Should English wish to remain leader, he’ll probably get his MPs’ backing. He led an impressive campaign in which he outperformed just about all expectations. But at the same time, there will be National MPs agitating for a quick change to someone who could match the energy of Ardern – someone like Nikki Kaye, the 37-year-old who recently returned to a ministerial role after overcoming breast cancer, and whose CV includes twice defeating Ardern in the Auckland Central electorate. |
Whoever its leader, National will make a fearsome opposition. Labour will be cast as hostage to the whims of Winston Peters and the demands of the Greens. It is more than 40 years since New Zealand has seen a one-term government, but National will know that it need only chip away a handful of support-party malcontents to cripple the new administration. | Whoever its leader, National will make a fearsome opposition. Labour will be cast as hostage to the whims of Winston Peters and the demands of the Greens. It is more than 40 years since New Zealand has seen a one-term government, but National will know that it need only chip away a handful of support-party malcontents to cripple the new administration. |
One of the most memorable moments in the campaign came at the Labour party launch at the Auckland Town Hall, when Ardern’s former boss and mentor, Helen Clark, embraced the new leader in a sea of cameras. Since Clark’s defeat nine years earlier, Labour had consistently failed to fire up the electorate. This was a powerful symbolic passing of the flame. Clark led Labour to three terms in government. Ardern has an enormous task to get close to that. And yet she, like Clark before her, has been routinely underestimated. | One of the most memorable moments in the campaign came at the Labour party launch at the Auckland Town Hall, when Ardern’s former boss and mentor, Helen Clark, embraced the new leader in a sea of cameras. Since Clark’s defeat nine years earlier, Labour had consistently failed to fire up the electorate. This was a powerful symbolic passing of the flame. Clark led Labour to three terms in government. Ardern has an enormous task to get close to that. And yet she, like Clark before her, has been routinely underestimated. |
• Toby Manhire is a former editor of the Guardian Comment pages | • Toby Manhire is a former editor of the Guardian Comment pages |
New Zealand election 2017 | New Zealand election 2017 |
Opinion | Opinion |
Jacinda Ardern | Jacinda Ardern |
Helen Clark | Helen Clark |
New Zealand | New Zealand |
Asia Pacific | Asia Pacific |
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