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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2017/oct/25/uk-gdp-britain-growth-slowdown-brexit-pound-ftse-business-live
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| Version 0 | Version 1 |
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| UK GDP growth report to show Brexit impact on economy – business live | UK GDP growth report to show Brexit impact on economy – business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| 9.04am BST | |
| 09:04 | |
| Rebecca O’Keeffe, head of investment at Interactive Investor, says today’s GDP report will influence whether UK interest rates rise this year (for the first time in a decade). | |
| “With expectations still rife that the Bank of England will raise interest rates next month, today’s GDP figures will be closely scrutinised to see whether they give any excuse for policymakers to hold fire or if they support their hawkish intent. | |
| Uncertainty about Brexit, the relatively fragile state of the British economy and fears over personal debt and household incomes could all be making Mr Carney think twice about whether now is the right time to start the process of raising rates. However, the prospect of delaying could lead to accusations of the MPC crying wolf again and severely dent sterling. Rocks and hard places abound, and the Governor will be keeping his fingers crossed that today’s figure gives him a valid excuse either way. | |
| 8.50am BST | |
| 08:50 | |
| The Treasury have created a little video explaining how GDP works: | |
| New #GDP figures are published today at 9.30am – find out what that means and why it matters: https://t.co/EJvB2mVvXK pic.twitter.com/M0YgzAQ6Wo | |
| 8.42am BST | |
| 08:42 | |
| While we wait for the UK growth report, do listen to Robert Kennedy explaining how GDP is an imperfect measure. | |
| Kennedy gave the speech to the University of Kansas in 1968, a few months before he was assassinated, saying: | |
| Yet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children, the quality of their education or the joy of their play. It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages, the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials. | |
| It measures neither our wit nor our courage, neither our wisdom nor our learning, neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country, it measures everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile. | |
| Updated | |
| at 8.53am BST | |
| 8.31am BST | |
| 08:31 | |
| Britain’s economy outperformed the eurozone for several years, during the euro debt crisis. | |
| But as this chart show, the eurozone’s growth rate caught up in 2016, and outpaced the UK so far this year. That has probably helped Britain avoid a sharper downturn this year. | |
| #UKGDP out today pic.twitter.com/8YJJLGkPkJ | |
| 7.57am BST | 7.57am BST |
| 07:57 | 07:57 |
| UK GDP preview: Another poor quarter of growth? | UK GDP preview: Another poor quarter of growth? |
| Good morning. We’re about to discover how well Britain’s economy is performing in the face of Brexit uncertainty, rising inflation and persistently weak productivity. | Good morning. We’re about to discover how well Britain’s economy is performing in the face of Brexit uncertainty, rising inflation and persistently weak productivity. |
| The first estimate of UK GDP for the July to September period, due at 9.30am BST, will show how quickly, or slowly, the economy expanded in the last quarter. | The first estimate of UK GDP for the July to September period, due at 9.30am BST, will show how quickly, or slowly, the economy expanded in the last quarter. |
| It may not be a great picture either; economists predict that GDP rose by just 0.3% during the quarter, significantly below the long-term trend growth. | It may not be a great picture either; economists predict that GDP rose by just 0.3% during the quarter, significantly below the long-term trend growth. |
| The annual growth rate could also drop to just 1.5% - again, rather weaker than in recent years. | The annual growth rate could also drop to just 1.5% - again, rather weaker than in recent years. |
| 2017 hasn’t exactly been a vintage year for the UK economy. GDP only rose by 0.3% in both the first and second quarter, partly due to a slowdown in the dominant service sector. | 2017 hasn’t exactly been a vintage year for the UK economy. GDP only rose by 0.3% in both the first and second quarter, partly due to a slowdown in the dominant service sector. |
| Having been one of the fastest-growing advanced economies in recent years, Britain has actually been the slowest-growing G7 nation so far this year. | Having been one of the fastest-growing advanced economies in recent years, Britain has actually been the slowest-growing G7 nation so far this year. |
| #UK growth was ahead of G7 economies one year ago, but has now fallen behind as #Brexit prospects are hurting the economy pic.twitter.com/pUXQ0KDhi8 | #UK growth was ahead of G7 economies one year ago, but has now fallen behind as #Brexit prospects are hurting the economy pic.twitter.com/pUXQ0KDhi8 |
| Worth mentioning on the day of Boris' "let the lion roar" speech, parliament's economic briefing showed UK had lowest GDP growth in G7 pic.twitter.com/tmG3ADRpkj | Worth mentioning on the day of Boris' "let the lion roar" speech, parliament's economic briefing showed UK had lowest GDP growth in G7 pic.twitter.com/tmG3ADRpkj |
| Today’s healthcheck on the UK economy is particularly important, as chancellor Philip Hammond weighs up what tax and spending changes to make in November’s budget. | Today’s healthcheck on the UK economy is particularly important, as chancellor Philip Hammond weighs up what tax and spending changes to make in November’s budget. |
| It will also influence whether the Bank of England decides to raise interest rates at its monetary policy meeting next week. | It will also influence whether the Bank of England decides to raise interest rates at its monetary policy meeting next week. |
| Sam Hill, senior UK economist at Royal Bank of Canada, fears that Britain’s growth rate could fall to just 0.2%, as there are signs that the service sector actually shrank in July. | Sam Hill, senior UK economist at Royal Bank of Canada, fears that Britain’s growth rate could fall to just 0.2%, as there are signs that the service sector actually shrank in July. |
| He says: | He says: |
| However, it is far from clear whether or not the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP will reveal growth of 0.2% q/q or 0.3% q/q. Our long-standing forecast has been 0.2% q/q, which we will stick with following news of a contraction in the services sector in July. | However, it is far from clear whether or not the preliminary estimate of Q3 GDP will reveal growth of 0.2% q/q or 0.3% q/q. Our long-standing forecast has been 0.2% q/q, which we will stick with following news of a contraction in the services sector in July. |
| It is also highly probable that, even with a recovery in September, for the quarter as a whole the construction sector will end up being a drag on growth. Against those headwinds, industrial production has been on a much better footing in Q3, so the overall growth estimate will depend on the extent to which the services sector rebounded in August and September. | It is also highly probable that, even with a recovery in September, for the quarter as a whole the construction sector will end up being a drag on growth. Against those headwinds, industrial production has been on a much better footing in Q3, so the overall growth estimate will depend on the extent to which the services sector rebounded in August and September. |
| City traders are bracing for some drama at 9.30am -- a weak GDP report could send the pound sliding. | City traders are bracing for some drama at 9.30am -- a weak GDP report could send the pound sliding. |
| Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at forex broker FXTM, explains: | Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at forex broker FXTM, explains: |
| Overall, October is shaping up to be a painful trading month for Sterling, especially in light of deteriorating economic fundamentals and slow progress on Brexit talks weighing heavily on the currency. | Overall, October is shaping up to be a painful trading month for Sterling, especially in light of deteriorating economic fundamentals and slow progress on Brexit talks weighing heavily on the currency. |
| Inflation in the U.K. has jumped to a five-and-a-half year high at 3%, while wage growth remains subdued. With households feeling the squeeze as wage growth continues to fall behind inflation, concerns remain elevated over the sustainability of the U.K.’s consumer-driven economic growth. | Inflation in the U.K. has jumped to a five-and-a-half year high at 3%, while wage growth remains subdued. With households feeling the squeeze as wage growth continues to fall behind inflation, concerns remain elevated over the sustainability of the U.K.’s consumer-driven economic growth. |
| Updated | Updated |
| at 8.16am BST | at 8.16am BST |