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| If Fallon-style scandal drives our politics, Theresa May cannot survive | If Fallon-style scandal drives our politics, Theresa May cannot survive |
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| Thu 2 Nov 2017 20.16 GMT | |
| Last modified on Mon 27 Nov 2017 14.24 GMT | |
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| In one of his many invaluable books on British politics, the great Sir David Butler – 93 last month and still following politics like a hawk – lists every significant ministerial resignation from British governments since the end of the Victorian era, along with a note of the reason for the minister’s departure. The roll call marks some of the great divisive events of the last century – entry into the first world war, the Irish rebellion, Munich, prescription charges, Suez, the Falklands invasion, Iraq. | In one of his many invaluable books on British politics, the great Sir David Butler – 93 last month and still following politics like a hawk – lists every significant ministerial resignation from British governments since the end of the Victorian era, along with a note of the reason for the minister’s departure. The roll call marks some of the great divisive events of the last century – entry into the first world war, the Irish rebellion, Munich, prescription charges, Suez, the Falklands invasion, Iraq. |
| It is not until 1958 that the first resignation due to a “private scandal” rather than a public issue is noted – the Conservative foreign office minister, charged with gross indecency after being caught in a gay sexual encounter, then illegal, in the bushes in St James’s Park. It is not, of course, that the first half of the 20th century was scandal-free – merely that the public knew nothing of such scandals, and so there were no demands that “something must be done”. | It is not until 1958 that the first resignation due to a “private scandal” rather than a public issue is noted – the Conservative foreign office minister, charged with gross indecency after being caught in a gay sexual encounter, then illegal, in the bushes in St James’s Park. It is not, of course, that the first half of the 20th century was scandal-free – merely that the public knew nothing of such scandals, and so there were no demands that “something must be done”. |
| After 1958, as the era of tabloid power dawns, “private scandal” occurs more often on the list. The most notable of these was Cecil Parkinson’s resignation in 1983, when the trade secretary was forced to admit, during a party conference, to fathering a child with his former secretary. The pace quickens in the 1990s, when the private lives of David Mellor, Tim Yeo, Michael Brown and several others fell short of the government’s “back to basics” stance. “Private scandal” continues into this century too, seeing off Ron Davies and David Blunkett, though only temporarily in the latter’s case. To this list, if Professor Butler were to reward us with an updated edition, we would now add the name of Michael Fallon. | After 1958, as the era of tabloid power dawns, “private scandal” occurs more often on the list. The most notable of these was Cecil Parkinson’s resignation in 1983, when the trade secretary was forced to admit, during a party conference, to fathering a child with his former secretary. The pace quickens in the 1990s, when the private lives of David Mellor, Tim Yeo, Michael Brown and several others fell short of the government’s “back to basics” stance. “Private scandal” continues into this century too, seeing off Ron Davies and David Blunkett, though only temporarily in the latter’s case. To this list, if Professor Butler were to reward us with an updated edition, we would now add the name of Michael Fallon. |
| At the time of writing, the full facts surrounding the former defence secretary’s resignation on Wednesday night are not clear. All that Fallon said in his statement is that he had “fallen below the high standards we require of the armed forces” – a questionable and pompous formulation. Nevertheless, provisionally, and on the basis of what we have been told so far, it is hard to think of a minister – especially such a senior one – resigning over an apparently less serious “private scandal” than this in British political history. | At the time of writing, the full facts surrounding the former defence secretary’s resignation on Wednesday night are not clear. All that Fallon said in his statement is that he had “fallen below the high standards we require of the armed forces” – a questionable and pompous formulation. Nevertheless, provisionally, and on the basis of what we have been told so far, it is hard to think of a minister – especially such a senior one – resigning over an apparently less serious “private scandal” than this in British political history. |
| That’s quite a claim, and I am well aware that it may look idiotic in light of future events, perhaps very quickly. Nevertheless Fallon has not, as far as we know, done anything criminal or irrevocably sackable. But if what we know, and what has appeared in print, is more or less the full story, then there are two larger implications for British politics. | That’s quite a claim, and I am well aware that it may look idiotic in light of future events, perhaps very quickly. Nevertheless Fallon has not, as far as we know, done anything criminal or irrevocably sackable. But if what we know, and what has appeared in print, is more or less the full story, then there are two larger implications for British politics. |
| The first and more immediate would be what it tells us about the sheer eggshell brittleness of Theresa May’s government. It is hardly a secret that May has become a weaker leader since losing her majority, doing her deal with the Democratic Unionists and losing so much of her momentum over Brexit. But the departure of Fallon, whether he was pushed into it or whether Downing Street felt it had no choice but to accept it, is a remarkable reminder of just how little authority or initiative May now possesses. Each predicament leaves her weaker. | The first and more immediate would be what it tells us about the sheer eggshell brittleness of Theresa May’s government. It is hardly a secret that May has become a weaker leader since losing her majority, doing her deal with the Democratic Unionists and losing so much of her momentum over Brexit. But the departure of Fallon, whether he was pushed into it or whether Downing Street felt it had no choice but to accept it, is a remarkable reminder of just how little authority or initiative May now possesses. Each predicament leaves her weaker. |
| She cannot lightly have seen him go. Stuffed shirt he may be, but Fallon was a competent and experienced minister. He was a May ally in a cabinet that is not oversupplied with them. He has a good political brain, even if recent events suggest some of its limitations. He isn’t bad in the media, and he certainly does not get flustered. Earlier in the autumn, reshuffle gossip had him pencilled in as a possible next chancellor of the exchequer, even a candidate to succeed May. | She cannot lightly have seen him go. Stuffed shirt he may be, but Fallon was a competent and experienced minister. He was a May ally in a cabinet that is not oversupplied with them. He has a good political brain, even if recent events suggest some of its limitations. He isn’t bad in the media, and he certainly does not get flustered. Earlier in the autumn, reshuffle gossip had him pencilled in as a possible next chancellor of the exchequer, even a candidate to succeed May. |
| One possible answer is that May panicked and felt she could not risk fighting for him to stay. That is itself a reminder that the Tory party at Westminster is a febrile beast these days, widely disloyal to its leader, given to reckless behaviour (of the strictly political sort, I mean) and difficult to manage. | One possible answer is that May panicked and felt she could not risk fighting for him to stay. That is itself a reminder that the Tory party at Westminster is a febrile beast these days, widely disloyal to its leader, given to reckless behaviour (of the strictly political sort, I mean) and difficult to manage. |
| Mutinous mutterings among Tory MPs on Thursday over the promotion of Gavin Williamson from chief whip to succeed Fallon are crazily disproportionate. They show how many in the party seem to have lost the plot altogether. | Mutinous mutterings among Tory MPs on Thursday over the promotion of Gavin Williamson from chief whip to succeed Fallon are crazily disproportionate. They show how many in the party seem to have lost the plot altogether. |
| Promoting Williamson was a timid move from a timid leader with much to be timid about. There was none of the boldness that promoting Penny Mordaunt, Rory Stewart or Tom Tugendhat – let alone bringing Ruth Davidson to London – might have signalled. Williamson is smart, crafty and is trusted by May, but his arrival shows May remains imprisoned by the party’s divisions over Brexit and dependent on a very few advisers. | Promoting Williamson was a timid move from a timid leader with much to be timid about. There was none of the boldness that promoting Penny Mordaunt, Rory Stewart or Tom Tugendhat – let alone bringing Ruth Davidson to London – might have signalled. Williamson is smart, crafty and is trusted by May, but his arrival shows May remains imprisoned by the party’s divisions over Brexit and dependent on a very few advisers. |
| So weak is the prime minister, in fact, that she may well have created a precedent with the Fallon case. Another ministerial embarrassment of this kind could bring her down. After Fallon – if his “previous conduct” is not significantly worse than we know already – any minister who is confirmed to have acted inappropriately in the past will have to go too. | So weak is the prime minister, in fact, that she may well have created a precedent with the Fallon case. Another ministerial embarrassment of this kind could bring her down. After Fallon – if his “previous conduct” is not significantly worse than we know already – any minister who is confirmed to have acted inappropriately in the past will have to go too. |
| This is the other large implication of the case. It is no accident, as the Trotskyists sometimes say, that the problem of “private scandal” has moved to the heart of politics. Our culture, turbocharged now by social media, gorges more than ever on intimacies and indiscretions. But the problem is complex and there are many sides to it. | This is the other large implication of the case. It is no accident, as the Trotskyists sometimes say, that the problem of “private scandal” has moved to the heart of politics. Our culture, turbocharged now by social media, gorges more than ever on intimacies and indiscretions. But the problem is complex and there are many sides to it. |
| Politicians, in my experience, are a variable mix – often within one person – of a strong service ethic, an enormous craving for approval and vindication, and a flair for risk. They aren’t alone in this – most people have done things they are ashamed of. Most are decent people who lead unimpeachable lives. | Politicians, in my experience, are a variable mix – often within one person – of a strong service ethic, an enormous craving for approval and vindication, and a flair for risk. They aren’t alone in this – most people have done things they are ashamed of. Most are decent people who lead unimpeachable lives. |
| It’s not that male MPs have become more predatory than in the past. On the whole, perhaps naively, I think the reverse is true. The problem is that sometimes the boundary between the serious and the foolish is still unclear, and the media – social as well as tabloid – have the means, motive and, from time to time, the opportunity to blur it at will. There is not much that politicians can do except try to behave better and observe sensible rules. | It’s not that male MPs have become more predatory than in the past. On the whole, perhaps naively, I think the reverse is true. The problem is that sometimes the boundary between the serious and the foolish is still unclear, and the media – social as well as tabloid – have the means, motive and, from time to time, the opportunity to blur it at will. There is not much that politicians can do except try to behave better and observe sensible rules. |
| • Martin Kettle is a Guardian columnist | • Martin Kettle is a Guardian columnist |
| Michael Fallon | |
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| Theresa May | |
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