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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| Is Brown set for post-holiday blues? | Is Brown set for post-holiday blues? |
| (about 15 hours later) | |
| By Laura Kuenssberg BBC News political correspondent Mr Brown faces a crucial test at the Labour conference | By Laura Kuenssberg BBC News political correspondent Mr Brown faces a crucial test at the Labour conference |
| Going back to work after a holiday is rarely the best feeling. | Going back to work after a holiday is rarely the best feeling. |
| But the prime minister could be forgiven for having a worse case of post holiday blues than the rest of us. | But the prime minister could be forgiven for having a worse case of post holiday blues than the rest of us. |
| His in-tray is bleak. | His in-tray is bleak. |
| Gordon Brown has to confront continually terrible poll ratings - an ICM poll in today's Guardian newspaper shows Labour trailing the Conservatives by 21 points. | Gordon Brown has to confront continually terrible poll ratings - an ICM poll in today's Guardian newspaper shows Labour trailing the Conservatives by 21 points. |
| That might have nudged up by one point since last month, but it's Labour's worst rating in August since the 1980s. | That might have nudged up by one point since last month, but it's Labour's worst rating in August since the 1980s. |
| Other polls make no more pleasant reading; a 'poll of polls' in last week's Independent newspaper put Labour on just 27%, its poorest showing since 1935. | |
| No easy fix | No easy fix |
| Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University described Gordon Brown to me as the "most unpopular Labour prime minister ever, leading the most unpopular Labour government in history." | Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University described Gordon Brown to me as the "most unpopular Labour prime minister ever, leading the most unpopular Labour government in history." |
| That's hardly an enviable position, or more to the point, a situation that has an easy fix. | That's hardly an enviable position, or more to the point, a situation that has an easy fix. |
| And while the urgency of the debate around replacing him has calmed down a little with so many politicos on holiday, the pressure on him to deliver in the next few weeks is intense. | And while the urgency of the debate around replacing him has calmed down a little with so many politicos on holiday, the pressure on him to deliver in the next few weeks is intense. |
| Showing the public and his own MPs that he has a grip on the stuttering economy is top of the list. | Showing the public and his own MPs that he has a grip on the stuttering economy is top of the list. |
| A one-off payment to families to help with fuel bills could emerge, help for the housing market perhaps, although the mooted suggestion of a stamp duty holiday backfired even before it became a solid proposal. | A one-off payment to families to help with fuel bills could emerge, help for the housing market perhaps, although the mooted suggestion of a stamp duty holiday backfired even before it became a solid proposal. |
| Gordon Brown's refrain that Britain is a victim of "global economic turbulence" may hold some truth, but he is the man who many voters will blame. | Gordon Brown's refrain that Britain is a victim of "global economic turbulence" may hold some truth, but he is the man who many voters will blame. |
| Changing faces | Changing faces |
| What about changing his team? It was rumoured that the PM was set to reshuffle his cabinet in September, to try to re-establish his authority, and show who was in charge. | What about changing his team? It was rumoured that the PM was set to reshuffle his cabinet in September, to try to re-establish his authority, and show who was in charge. |
| But so close to a crucial party conference at the end of the month, the chances of that are fading. | But so close to a crucial party conference at the end of the month, the chances of that are fading. |
| And there is never any guarantee that changing the faces round the table restores the public's faith in a government. | And there is never any guarantee that changing the faces round the table restores the public's faith in a government. |
| Reshuffled or not, Gordon Brown's government has to go to the polls again shortly, in another by-election in Scotland. | Reshuffled or not, Gordon Brown's government has to go to the polls again shortly, in another by-election in Scotland. |
| Only last month the Scottish Nationalists outsmarted Labour in one of the party's safest seats, Glasgow East. | Only last month the Scottish Nationalists outsmarted Labour in one of the party's safest seats, Glasgow East. |
| They face a tougher fight in Glenrothes soon, after the death of the sitting MP. | They face a tougher fight in Glenrothes soon, after the death of the sitting MP. |
| Heavy odds | Heavy odds |
| No date is yet fixed for the by election, and a debate is ongoing about playing it long or short, but whenever the ballot actually takes place, the odds are stacked heavily against Labour. | No date is yet fixed for the by election, and a debate is ongoing about playing it long or short, but whenever the ballot actually takes place, the odds are stacked heavily against Labour. |
| Like a mediocre speech at the party's conference in three weeks' time, a bad performance at the by-election would almost inevitably provoke another fevered bout of Labour angst about Gordon Brown's leadership. | Like a mediocre speech at the party's conference in three weeks' time, a bad performance at the by-election would almost inevitably provoke another fevered bout of Labour angst about Gordon Brown's leadership. |
| The foreign secretary, David Miliband, stopped short of challenging his boss, when he wrote of Labour's need to sharpen its game in a newspaper last month. | The foreign secretary, David Miliband, stopped short of challenging his boss, when he wrote of Labour's need to sharpen its game in a newspaper last month. |
| But he made it plain that his career plan includes a shot at Number 10, even if he doesn't want, yet, to be the one to provoke a leadership race. | But he made it plain that his career plan includes a shot at Number 10, even if he doesn't want, yet, to be the one to provoke a leadership race. |
| His supporters are not the only ones talking about the future. And if Gordon Brown can't begin to show he can turn things round, that's a future for Labour that might not include him. | His supporters are not the only ones talking about the future. And if Gordon Brown can't begin to show he can turn things round, that's a future for Labour that might not include him. |