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| UK inflation could hit five-year high, as German growth surges - business live | UK inflation could hit five-year high, as German growth surges - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Here we go.... | |
| Stand by your desks! UK inflation and house price data and PPI is due in a minute or so #CPI | |
| Italians didn’t have much to cheer about during last night’s football. But this morning’s economic data is a whole new ball game! | |
| Italy’s economy expanded by 0.5% in the third quarter of this year, ahead of expectations for a 0.4% rise. | |
| That matches France’s performance, and is slightly faster than the UK. | |
| After several sluggish years, Italy’s economy does seem to have shifted up a gear in the last few quarters: | |
| Italy will miss the World Cup but clearly isn't missing the #euroboom. https://t.co/gVI7pMsko4 pic.twitter.com/nAGeKO01Yf | |
| *ITALIAN ECONOMY EXPANDED 1.8% IN 3Q Y/Y; EST. 1.7% GROWTH | |
| The Netherlands economy grew by 0.4% in the last quarter, new figures show. That’s in line with forecasts: | |
| #netherlands economy grew 0.4% q/q in Q3 after a record Q2. Consumption, investment and export contributed to growth. Very strong run pic.twitter.com/NpOy2ayvt6 | |
| Economist Rupert Seggins has tweeted some useful charts ahead of today’s UK inflation data, due in 30 minutes: | |
| 1. UK inflation for October out today & consensus is for a 3.1%y/y rise in consumer prices. Up a little on September's 3.0%y/y pic.twitter.com/7JakuKG6P0 | |
| 2. Core inflation - if history is anything to go by, sterling's not done with it yet. Consensus is for it to nudge up to 2.8%y/y. pic.twitter.com/lzNT8Zy4bE | |
| 3. Oil price inflation was down in October compared to September, so may offer some temporary respite. pic.twitter.com/AG1GOUxjj5 | |
| 4. Room for food price inflation to ease a little, given recent (slightly lower) food manufacturing input inflation. pic.twitter.com/eILELl1Jo2 | |
| 5. UK inflation relatively high but not wildly different to US and Euro Area; energy price inflation's global; core still the one to watch. pic.twitter.com/ESkSRWbWol | |
| Here’s Kit Juckes of French bank Société Générale on today’s German growth figures: | Here’s Kit Juckes of French bank Société Générale on today’s German growth figures: |
| Europe’s economic heart is pumping away and a 0.8% Q3 q/q GDP gain in Germany threatens to nudge the Eurozone growth rate up too. It’s a reminder of the changing of the guard as the US economic cycle ages. | Europe’s economic heart is pumping away and a 0.8% Q3 q/q GDP gain in Germany threatens to nudge the Eurozone growth rate up too. It’s a reminder of the changing of the guard as the US economic cycle ages. |
| Tesco executives might be reaching for a bottle of Finest fizz later; they’ve just been given a provisional green light to buy cash-and-carry group Booker. | |
| The UK’s competition authorities have concluded that the deal won’t mean higher prices or a poorer service for shoppers. | The UK’s competition authorities have concluded that the deal won’t mean higher prices or a poorer service for shoppers. |
| Tesco shares have jumped by 5% to the top of the FTSE 100 leaderboard, as investors wager that the Booker deal will help its turnaround plan. | Tesco shares have jumped by 5% to the top of the FTSE 100 leaderboard, as investors wager that the Booker deal will help its turnaround plan. |
| Over in the City, ITV has reported that TV ad revenue fell 7% in the first nine months of the year. | Over in the City, ITV has reported that TV ad revenue fell 7% in the first nine months of the year. |
| The broadcaster expects improvement with a fall of 5% for the full year, as brands roll out big budget festive campaigns in the run up to Christmas. | The broadcaster expects improvement with a fall of 5% for the full year, as brands roll out big budget festive campaigns in the run up to Christmas. |
| October will be down 1%, November up 2% and December up 1%. Peter Bazalgette, ITV chairman, said “some” grocers and consumer brands (like P&G and Unilever) are returning to TV advertising but the economy is still very uncertain. | October will be down 1%, November up 2% and December up 1%. Peter Bazalgette, ITV chairman, said “some” grocers and consumer brands (like P&G and Unilever) are returning to TV advertising but the economy is still very uncertain. |
| The euro has hit a three-week high, on the back of Germany’s strong growth. | The euro has hit a three-week high, on the back of Germany’s strong growth. |
| The single currency has risen 0.3% to $1.17, its highest rate since 26th October (when the ECB decided to extend its stimulus programme into 2018) | The single currency has risen 0.3% to $1.17, its highest rate since 26th October (when the ECB decided to extend its stimulus programme into 2018) |
| In another boost, Germany’s growth rate in the first three months of 2017 has been revised up to 0.9%. | In another boost, Germany’s growth rate in the first three months of 2017 has been revised up to 0.9%. |
| German real GDP expanded by 0.8% q-o-q in Q3, beating expectations (0.6%). This comes after GDP growth of 0.6% in Q2 and an upwardly-revised 0.9% in Q1.In Q3, positive contribution came from foreign trade and investment.Carry-over effect for 2017: 2.4% pic.twitter.com/XzvwyQy8gk | German real GDP expanded by 0.8% q-o-q in Q3, beating expectations (0.6%). This comes after GDP growth of 0.6% in Q2 and an upwardly-revised 0.9% in Q1.In Q3, positive contribution came from foreign trade and investment.Carry-over effect for 2017: 2.4% pic.twitter.com/XzvwyQy8gk |
| Today’s growth figures show that Germany remains “the high-flyer of the Eurozone”, say Carsten Brzeski of ING. | Today’s growth figures show that Germany remains “the high-flyer of the Eurozone”, say Carsten Brzeski of ING. |
| He’s impressed that German GDP grew by 0.8% in the last quarter, writing: | He’s impressed that German GDP grew by 0.8% in the last quarter, writing: |
| Never tired of good news? Then have a look at the latest German GDP data. The economy continues its golden cycle and staged yet another strong growth performance in the third quarter..... | Never tired of good news? Then have a look at the latest German GDP data. The economy continues its golden cycle and staged yet another strong growth performance in the third quarter..... |
| Growth was driven by public consumption, investment and net exports. Only the construction sector took a longer vacation break. Even if the economy would stagnate in the final quarter of the year, GDP growth for the entire year would still come in at 2.4%; the highest reading since 2011. | Growth was driven by public consumption, investment and net exports. Only the construction sector took a longer vacation break. Even if the economy would stagnate in the final quarter of the year, GDP growth for the entire year would still come in at 2.4%; the highest reading since 2011. |
| Germany: Still flying high - The golden cycle of the German economy continues, with 3Q GDP growth coming in at 0.8% QoQ. https://t.co/5Advek0Bos | Germany: Still flying high - The golden cycle of the German economy continues, with 3Q GDP growth coming in at 0.8% QoQ. https://t.co/5Advek0Bos |
| Boom! Germany’s economy has beaten expectations by growing twice as fast as the UK in the last quarter. | Boom! Germany’s economy has beaten expectations by growing twice as fast as the UK in the last quarter. |
| German GDP expanded by 0.8% in July to September quarter, thanks to strong trade and investment figures. That beats expectations for 0.6% growth, and means Europe’s largest economy is having a very impressive year. | German GDP expanded by 0.8% in July to September quarter, thanks to strong trade and investment figures. That beats expectations for 0.6% growth, and means Europe’s largest economy is having a very impressive year. |
| Germany powers ahead. Q3 GDP QoQ 0.8% | Germany powers ahead. Q3 GDP QoQ 0.8% |
| In contrast, the UK grew by 0.4% in the third quarter, while France expanded by 0.5%. | In contrast, the UK grew by 0.4% in the third quarter, while France expanded by 0.5%. |
| As Destatis, the German statistics office, puts it: | As Destatis, the German statistics office, puts it: |
| “German economic growth continues at a high rate. | “German economic growth continues at a high rate. |
| Exporters put in another strong performance, meaning Germany shipped more to the rest of the world than it bought in. | Exporters put in another strong performance, meaning Germany shipped more to the rest of the world than it bought in. |
| Destatis says: | Destatis says: |
| “Exports were stronger than imports in the third quarter. As a result, net exports had a positive impact on the GDP compared to the previous quarter. | “Exports were stronger than imports in the third quarter. As a result, net exports had a positive impact on the GDP compared to the previous quarter. |
| Investment in new machinery and equipment also rose, while government and consumer spending “remained rather stable”. | Investment in new machinery and equipment also rose, while government and consumer spending “remained rather stable”. |
| Strong Q3 performance means Germany is having its best growth year since 2010, running further above potential. My take: https://t.co/X2jfgCpweJ pic.twitter.com/7VswWpNDMO | Strong Q3 performance means Germany is having its best growth year since 2010, running further above potential. My take: https://t.co/X2jfgCpweJ pic.twitter.com/7VswWpNDMO |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| Britain’s cost of living squeeze may hit a new five-year high today, as the weak pound continues to drive up prices in the shops. | Britain’s cost of living squeeze may hit a new five-year high today, as the weak pound continues to drive up prices in the shops. |
| October’s consumer prices index is expected to hit 3.1%, up from September’s 3% and the highest level since March 2012. | October’s consumer prices index is expected to hit 3.1%, up from September’s 3% and the highest level since March 2012. |
| Economists say that rising food and energy prices will push inflation up. Sterling’s weakness - still down over 10% since the EU referendum in June 2016 - is another factor. | Economists say that rising food and energy prices will push inflation up. Sterling’s weakness - still down over 10% since the EU referendum in June 2016 - is another factor. |
| This would bring more pain for households, as wage increases are running at just over 2%. It would also force Bank of England governor Mark Carney to write a letter of explanation to the UK chancellor, explaining why he’s failed to keep inflation close to the BoE’s 2% target. | This would bring more pain for households, as wage increases are running at just over 2%. It would also force Bank of England governor Mark Carney to write a letter of explanation to the UK chancellor, explaining why he’s failed to keep inflation close to the BoE’s 2% target. |
| Also coming up today... | Also coming up today... |
| New growth figures are expected to confirm that the eurozone economy grew by a punchy 0.6% in the third quarter of 2017. We also get individual figures from Germany, the Netherlands and Italy. | New growth figures are expected to confirm that the eurozone economy grew by a punchy 0.6% in the third quarter of 2017. We also get individual figures from Germany, the Netherlands and Italy. |
| The world’s four top central bankers are appearing at a European Central Bank conference in Frankfurt. Mark Carney will join Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve, ECB chief Mario Draghi and Haruhiko Kuroda of the Bank of Japan will all discuss “Communications challenges for policy effectiveness, accountability and reputation”. | The world’s four top central bankers are appearing at a European Central Bank conference in Frankfurt. Mark Carney will join Janet Yellen of the Federal Reserve, ECB chief Mario Draghi and Haruhiko Kuroda of the Bank of Japan will all discuss “Communications challenges for policy effectiveness, accountability and reputation”. |
| The agenda | The agenda |
| 7am GMT: German GDP for the third quarter of 2017 | 7am GMT: German GDP for the third quarter of 2017 |
| 8.30am GMT: Dutch GDP figures for the third quarter of 2017 | 8.30am GMT: Dutch GDP figures for the third quarter of 2017 |
| 9am GMT: Italian GDP for the third quarter of 2017 | 9am GMT: Italian GDP for the third quarter of 2017 |
| 9.30am GMT: UK inflation figures for October | 9.30am GMT: UK inflation figures for October |
| 9.30am GMT: UK house price figures for September. | 9.30am GMT: UK house price figures for September. |
| 10am GMT: Eurozone GDP growth figures for the third quarter of 2017 | 10am GMT: Eurozone GDP growth figures for the third quarter of 2017 |
| 10am GMT: Mark Carney, Janet Yellen, Mario Draghi and Haruhiko Kuroda speak at an event on central bank communication | 10am GMT: Mark Carney, Janet Yellen, Mario Draghi and Haruhiko Kuroda speak at an event on central bank communication |
| 10am GMT: UK Treasury committee hearing on Household finances: income, saving and debt | 10am GMT: UK Treasury committee hearing on Household finances: income, saving and debt |
| 1.30pm GMT: US producer prices figures | 1.30pm GMT: US producer prices figures |