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| UK real wages squeeze continues as employment total falls - business live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| This chart from the Office for National Statistics shows how wage growth has struggled to get much above 2% this year. | |
| And that means that real wages are falling, whether or not you include bonuses: | |
| Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in nominal terms (that is, not adjusted for price inflation) increased by 2.2% both including and excluding bonuses, compared with a year earlier. | |
| Latest estimates show that average weekly earnings for employees in Great Britain in real terms (that is, adjusted for price inflation) fell by 0.4% including bonuses, and fell by 0.5% excluding bonuses, compared with a year earlier. | |
| Jul-Sep 2017 was the sixth three-month period in a row where earnings including bonuses fell in real terms https://t.co/vYgJXaCR8u pic.twitter.com/gkSUfDgoCd | |
| The pound has risen slightly, as City traders welcome the pick-up in wage growth in the last quarter. | |
| Latest data in Britain:- Unemployment rate is 4.3%- Holds at lowest since 1975- Number in work falls by 14,000- First decline in 13 months- Wage growth just above 2%- Far below rate of inflation- Pound rises slightlyhttps://t.co/a9qPI1vM5r pic.twitter.com/a8WUPXISGS | |
| Breaking! The number of people in employment across the UK has fallen, for the first time in nearly a year. | |
| There were 32.06 million people in work in July-September, which is a 14,000 drop on the previous quarter. | |
| This is the first drop since August-October 2016, and the biggest decline since April-June 2015. | |
| The employment rate (the proportion of people aged from 16 to 64 who were in work) was 75.0%, down slightly compared with April to June 2017 but up from 74.4% for a year earlier, according to the Office for National Statistics. | |
| *U.K. 3Q EMPLOYMENT FALLS 14,000, FIRST DECLINE SINCE 2016 | |
| Britain’s jobless rate remains at a 42-year low of just 4.3%. | |
| Unemployment fell by 59,000 between July and September to 1.42 million, the Office for National Statistics says. That’s 182,000 less than a year earlier. | |
| Breaking! Britain’s wages squeeze continued to bite in the last quarter, according to the latest Labour Market report just released. | |
| Basic pay rose by just 2.2% per year in July-September, meaning that wages continued to lag inflation. | |
| Pay including bonuses also rose by 2.2%. | |
| In contrast, inflation was 2.7% in August, rising to 3% in September and October. | |
| More to follow... | |
| Britain has rediscovered its taste for Angel Delight! | Britain has rediscovered its taste for Angel Delight! |
| Sales of the retro desert are up 30%, in a boost for Premier Foods. | Sales of the retro desert are up 30%, in a boost for Premier Foods. |
| Angel Delight first hit the shelves in the late 60s, when UK cuisine was more basic.... | Angel Delight first hit the shelves in the late 60s, when UK cuisine was more basic.... |
| Overnight, Japan has posted its seventh consecutive quarter of growth, the longest run in over a decade. | Overnight, Japan has posted its seventh consecutive quarter of growth, the longest run in over a decade. |
| Japanese GDP rose by 0.3% during the July-September, with rising exports making up for weaker domestic demand. | Japanese GDP rose by 0.3% during the July-September, with rising exports making up for weaker domestic demand. |
| This will be welcomed by Tokyo as it tries to put Japan’s ‘lost decades’ behind it, and achieve steady growth and inflation. | This will be welcomed by Tokyo as it tries to put Japan’s ‘lost decades’ behind it, and achieve steady growth and inflation. |
| But it also means Japan will be one of the slower-growing G7 nations in the third quarter; Germany grew by 0.8%, America by 0.75%, France and Italy by 0.5%, and the UK by 0.4%. All eyes on Canada.... | But it also means Japan will be one of the slower-growing G7 nations in the third quarter; Germany grew by 0.8%, America by 0.75%, France and Italy by 0.5%, and the UK by 0.4%. All eyes on Canada.... |
| On a nominal basis (not discounting for inflation), Japanese growth was 0.6%. | On a nominal basis (not discounting for inflation), Japanese growth was 0.6%. |
| Another three months of nominal GDP growth in Japan, now up year-on-year for 18 successive quarters. But Abenomics doesn't work! 🤭💹🇯🇵 pic.twitter.com/KURes58B5p | Another three months of nominal GDP growth in Japan, now up year-on-year for 18 successive quarters. But Abenomics doesn't work! 🤭💹🇯🇵 pic.twitter.com/KURes58B5p |
| This chart, from manufacturing group EEF, shows how UK wages have fallen below inflation (the dotted line) this year: | This chart, from manufacturing group EEF, shows how UK wages have fallen below inflation (the dotted line) this year: |
| Despite the sustained fall in the unemployment rate, wage squeeze is set to continue #ukeconomy #ukmfg https://t.co/guUjyCFSqS pic.twitter.com/3Sv2D0cKvA | Despite the sustained fall in the unemployment rate, wage squeeze is set to continue #ukeconomy #ukmfg https://t.co/guUjyCFSqS pic.twitter.com/3Sv2D0cKvA |
| Today’s jobs report will paint a picture of an economy suffering from subdued wage growth, but enjoying record low unemployment. | Today’s jobs report will paint a picture of an economy suffering from subdued wage growth, but enjoying record low unemployment. |
| Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM, says the pound could suffer if the wage figures are particularly bad. | Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM, says the pound could suffer if the wage figures are particularly bad. |
| He writes: | He writes: |
| Although Britain’s unemployment rate is at a 42-year low, the buzzkill remains, that little sign of rising pay growth continues to weigh heavily on sentiment. If average earnings struggle to pick up, consumers are likely to continue feeling the squeeze, especially when considering how inflation remains at a five-and-a-half year high, at 3%. | Although Britain’s unemployment rate is at a 42-year low, the buzzkill remains, that little sign of rising pay growth continues to weigh heavily on sentiment. If average earnings struggle to pick up, consumers are likely to continue feeling the squeeze, especially when considering how inflation remains at a five-and-a-half year high, at 3%. |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| Britain’s real wage squeeze is set to deepen today, when we get new data showing how the UK labour market is performing. | Britain’s real wage squeeze is set to deepen today, when we get new data showing how the UK labour market is performing. |
| Economists predict that basic pay (excluding bonuses) grew by around 2.2% per annum in the July-September quarter, up from 2.1% a month ago. | Economists predict that basic pay (excluding bonuses) grew by around 2.2% per annum in the July-September quarter, up from 2.1% a month ago. |
| Any increase would be welcome, but this would still leave wages lagging behind inflation - which ran at a five-year high of 3% in September and October. | Any increase would be welcome, but this would still leave wages lagging behind inflation - which ran at a five-year high of 3% in September and October. |
| Analysts at Royal Bank of Canada warn that UK wages will remain subdued for several months, but might then rise faster. | Analysts at Royal Bank of Canada warn that UK wages will remain subdued for several months, but might then rise faster. |
| With the Bank of England’s Regional Agents’ survey indicating pay settlements could pick up next year to 2.5-3.5% next year, it could well be some way into 2018 before there is sufficient evidence from the labour market reports that pay growth is making a meaningful advance. | With the Bank of England’s Regional Agents’ survey indicating pay settlements could pick up next year to 2.5-3.5% next year, it could well be some way into 2018 before there is sufficient evidence from the labour market reports that pay growth is making a meaningful advance. |
| Today’s report may also show Britain’s unemployment rate stuck at just 4.3%, the lowest in over four decades. | Today’s report may also show Britain’s unemployment rate stuck at just 4.3%, the lowest in over four decades. |
| In theory, such a tight labour market ought to drive wages higher as bosses compete to recruit workers. | In theory, such a tight labour market ought to drive wages higher as bosses compete to recruit workers. |
| Michael Hewson of CMC Markets explains: | Michael Hewson of CMC Markets explains: |
| With unemployment at 42 year lows of 4.3%, it surely can only be a matter of time before wage pressure starts to manifest itself further..... | With unemployment at 42 year lows of 4.3%, it surely can only be a matter of time before wage pressure starts to manifest itself further..... |
| We’ve already started to see increasing evidence that wages at the lower end of the income scale are rising at rates faster than inflation as the effects of increases in the minimum and living wage help pull up wages at the bottom of the pay scales. | We’ve already started to see increasing evidence that wages at the lower end of the income scale are rising at rates faster than inflation as the effects of increases in the minimum and living wage help pull up wages at the bottom of the pay scales. |
| This should inevitably see a trickle up effect as earners higher up the income scale start to demand higher wages in a tightening labour market,. | This should inevitably see a trickle up effect as earners higher up the income scale start to demand higher wages in a tightening labour market,. |
| European stock markets are expected to dip this morning ahead of the jobs report, which is released at 9.30am. | European stock markets are expected to dip this morning ahead of the jobs report, which is released at 9.30am. |
| Softer open in prospect for European indices after losses on Wall Street and steep sell off across Asian Pacific markets. #Crudeoil continues to slide. #FTSE called 20 lower | Softer open in prospect for European indices after losses on Wall Street and steep sell off across Asian Pacific markets. #Crudeoil continues to slide. #FTSE called 20 lower |
| In the City, Premier Foods, communication firm TalkTalk and housebuilders Barratt and Crest Nicholson are all reporting results. | In the City, Premier Foods, communication firm TalkTalk and housebuilders Barratt and Crest Nicholson are all reporting results. |
| Here’s the agenda | Here’s the agenda |
| 9.30am GMT: UK labour market report, including unemployment rate and earnings figures | 9.30am GMT: UK labour market report, including unemployment rate and earnings figures |
| 10am GMT: Eurozone trade balance figures | 10am GMT: Eurozone trade balance figures |
| 1pm GMT: Bank of England deputy governor Ben Broadbent gives a speech at the London School of Economics. | 1pm GMT: Bank of England deputy governor Ben Broadbent gives a speech at the London School of Economics. |
| 1.30pm GMT: US inflation figures | 1.30pm GMT: US inflation figures |
| 1.30pm GMT: US retail sales | 1.30pm GMT: US retail sales |