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| Tactical error leaves weakened Mugabe facing end of an era | Tactical error leaves weakened Mugabe facing end of an era |
| (about 1 month later) | |
| The final unravelling of the 37-year rule of Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe began with an uncharacteristic tactical error. To clear the way to power for his wife, Grace, and her increasingly influential faction, the 93-year-old autocrat sought a decisive confrontation with the only man in the former British colony who had the power to mount a successful challenge to his authority – and he lost. | The final unravelling of the 37-year rule of Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe began with an uncharacteristic tactical error. To clear the way to power for his wife, Grace, and her increasingly influential faction, the 93-year-old autocrat sought a decisive confrontation with the only man in the former British colony who had the power to mount a successful challenge to his authority – and he lost. |
| Emerson Mnangagwa, the former vice-president whose cunning, longevity and toughness earned him the nickname “the Crocodile”, was unceremoniously stripped of his office by Mugabe nine days ago. | Emerson Mnangagwa, the former vice-president whose cunning, longevity and toughness earned him the nickname “the Crocodile”, was unceremoniously stripped of his office by Mugabe nine days ago. |
| Emmerson Mnangagwa was sworn in as president of Zimbabwe on 24 November, capping a dramatic few weeks that began when he was sacked as vice-president by Robert Mugabe on 6 November. | Emmerson Mnangagwa was sworn in as president of Zimbabwe on 24 November, capping a dramatic few weeks that began when he was sacked as vice-president by Robert Mugabe on 6 November. |
| Mnangagwa, a 75-year-old former intelligence chief, had been locked in a battle with the first lady, Grace Mugabe, to succeed her husband as president. | Mnangagwa, a 75-year-old former intelligence chief, had been locked in a battle with the first lady, Grace Mugabe, to succeed her husband as president. |
| His sacking – an attempt to clear Grace's path to power - was a tactical error that triggered a military takeover, Mugabe's impeachment by parliament, and his resignation. | His sacking – an attempt to clear Grace's path to power - was a tactical error that triggered a military takeover, Mugabe's impeachment by parliament, and his resignation. |
| Mnangagwa has strong support within the security establishment and among veterans of Zimbabwe’s 1970s guerrilla war, when he earned the nickname “the crocodile”. | Mnangagwa has strong support within the security establishment and among veterans of Zimbabwe’s 1970s guerrilla war, when he earned the nickname “the crocodile”. |
| Despite allegations about his role in atrocities in the 1980s, much of the international community had long seen him as being the most likely figure in Zimbabwe to guarantee a stable transition and implement economic reforms. | Despite allegations about his role in atrocities in the 1980s, much of the international community had long seen him as being the most likely figure in Zimbabwe to guarantee a stable transition and implement economic reforms. |
| The manner of the sacking should have given the oldest ruler in the world and the 53-year-old first lady pause. It did not, and now Mugabe is confined to his official residence in the plush suburb of Borrowdale. The whereabouts of Grace Mugabe are unknown. | The manner of the sacking should have given the oldest ruler in the world and the 53-year-old first lady pause. It did not, and now Mugabe is confined to his official residence in the plush suburb of Borrowdale. The whereabouts of Grace Mugabe are unknown. |
| Mugabe had intended to fire Mnangagwa face to face in his office, but the former intelligence chief refused to travel the short distance across the Zimbabwean capital for the interview. | Mugabe had intended to fire Mnangagwa face to face in his office, but the former intelligence chief refused to travel the short distance across the Zimbabwean capital for the interview. |
| The president tried again, this time telling Mnangagwa – an aide and collaborator since the two men fought together in the liberation wars of the 1970s – to come to State House, the president’s official residence. Once again, there was no response. | The president tried again, this time telling Mnangagwa – an aide and collaborator since the two men fought together in the liberation wars of the 1970s – to come to State House, the president’s official residence. Once again, there was no response. |
| This second refusal was taken as evidence of weakness, one official in the ruling Zanu-PF said, and hours later a government spokesman told a press conference in Harare that Mnangagwa had been stripped of office for “disloyalty, disrespect, deceit and being unreliable”. | This second refusal was taken as evidence of weakness, one official in the ruling Zanu-PF said, and hours later a government spokesman told a press conference in Harare that Mnangagwa had been stripped of office for “disloyalty, disrespect, deceit and being unreliable”. |
| Mnangagwa, tipped to succeed the ailing Mugabe as recently as August, fled to neighbouring Mozambique. | Mnangagwa, tipped to succeed the ailing Mugabe as recently as August, fled to neighbouring Mozambique. |
| There followed a brief hiatus while Mnangagwa and his allies consulted with the Zimbabwean military, other supporters inside Zimbabwe and in Johannesburg, as well as representatives of the South African government. The tacit backing of Pretoria was critical, as no attempt to oust Mugabe could succeed without the regional support that the South Africans could bring. | There followed a brief hiatus while Mnangagwa and his allies consulted with the Zimbabwean military, other supporters inside Zimbabwe and in Johannesburg, as well as representatives of the South African government. The tacit backing of Pretoria was critical, as no attempt to oust Mugabe could succeed without the regional support that the South Africans could bring. |
| On Monday, Constantine Chiwenga, the Zimbabwean army chief, said the military would step in if the country’s stability and security were threatened. | On Monday, Constantine Chiwenga, the Zimbabwean army chief, said the military would step in if the country’s stability and security were threatened. |
| There was no response from Mugabe, and defiance from some supporters of Grace Mugabe. On Tuesday afternoon armoured vehicles took up positions around Harare, and by 1am on Wednesday, with the state broadcaster’s studios secure, the army declared its intervention to preserve the nation from “criminals”. | There was no response from Mugabe, and defiance from some supporters of Grace Mugabe. On Tuesday afternoon armoured vehicles took up positions around Harare, and by 1am on Wednesday, with the state broadcaster’s studios secure, the army declared its intervention to preserve the nation from “criminals”. |
| Few in Zimbabwe needed telling whom Chiwenga meant: the so-called G40, the faction that had coalesced around the first lady. | Few in Zimbabwe needed telling whom Chiwenga meant: the so-called G40, the faction that had coalesced around the first lady. |
| For months the power struggle between Mnangagwa and Grace Mugabe had been approaching its climax. The loser would be forced into exile, if they got out in time. | For months the power struggle between Mnangagwa and Grace Mugabe had been approaching its climax. The loser would be forced into exile, if they got out in time. |
| Mnangagwa was tipped by most analysts – and western diplomats – as the likely winner. The battle was within Zanu-PF but had broader significance too: a generational struggle between the veterans of the wars of the 1970s and 1980s and ambitious younger challengers. The name G40 is a reference to the average age of the group’s members. | Mnangagwa was tipped by most analysts – and western diplomats – as the likely winner. The battle was within Zanu-PF but had broader significance too: a generational struggle between the veterans of the wars of the 1970s and 1980s and ambitious younger challengers. The name G40 is a reference to the average age of the group’s members. |
| Then there was a shift. The president appeared to have made up his mind to favour family over party. In recent weeks the first lady spoke publicly of a female president in the near future. Her husband openly criticised Mnangagwa’s supporters. | Then there was a shift. The president appeared to have made up his mind to favour family over party. In recent weeks the first lady spoke publicly of a female president in the near future. Her husband openly criticised Mnangagwa’s supporters. |
| In December Zanu-PF members are due to meet for its annual conference where top appointments are announced and ratified. The prospect of Grace Mugabe being appointed vice-president undoubtedly concentrated the minds of the Mnangagwa and his many supporters within the military. So too did the ongoing purge within the party, which threatened their influence and access. | In December Zanu-PF members are due to meet for its annual conference where top appointments are announced and ratified. The prospect of Grace Mugabe being appointed vice-president undoubtedly concentrated the minds of the Mnangagwa and his many supporters within the military. So too did the ongoing purge within the party, which threatened their influence and access. |
| They will also have known – apparently unlike an isolated Mugabe – that Grace Mugabe is almost universally reviled in Zimbabwe. The first lady’s shopping expeditions and extravagant purchases, the antics of the couple’s nightclubbing, spendthrift sons, and her alleged violent outbursts have been widely reported in the relatively vocal media. Even loyal supporters of the president will say she should never succeed her husband. | They will also have known – apparently unlike an isolated Mugabe – that Grace Mugabe is almost universally reviled in Zimbabwe. The first lady’s shopping expeditions and extravagant purchases, the antics of the couple’s nightclubbing, spendthrift sons, and her alleged violent outbursts have been widely reported in the relatively vocal media. Even loyal supporters of the president will say she should never succeed her husband. |
| Mnangagwa, too, is not much liked. His role in the Matabeleland massacres of the early 1980s has alienated much of the south and west of Zimbabwe. But the 75-year-old is respected, and is likely to be accepted as a leader. Above all, there will be hope of some stability, and a chance to reboot the collapsing economy. | Mnangagwa, too, is not much liked. His role in the Matabeleland massacres of the early 1980s has alienated much of the south and west of Zimbabwe. But the 75-year-old is respected, and is likely to be accepted as a leader. Above all, there will be hope of some stability, and a chance to reboot the collapsing economy. |
| But Mnangagwa is not leader yet. For that to happen, a deal will need to be done. The army has been reaching out to the opposition since the takeover. Some opposition officials say talks with “people in the military” have been going on for several months about the replacement of Mugabe by a transitional authority led by Mnangagwa but featuring senior opposition politicians such as Morgan Tsvangirai, the veteran leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, in top posts. | But Mnangagwa is not leader yet. For that to happen, a deal will need to be done. The army has been reaching out to the opposition since the takeover. Some opposition officials say talks with “people in the military” have been going on for several months about the replacement of Mugabe by a transitional authority led by Mnangagwa but featuring senior opposition politicians such as Morgan Tsvangirai, the veteran leader of the Movement for Democratic Change, in top posts. |
| An election is due next year but could be called early. Despite widespread support for MDC in towns and among young people, Mnangagwa would still be likely to win as the Zanu-PF candidate, especially if he had the party machinery behind him and appeared prepared to run an inclusive government. | An election is due next year but could be called early. Despite widespread support for MDC in towns and among young people, Mnangagwa would still be likely to win as the Zanu-PF candidate, especially if he had the party machinery behind him and appeared prepared to run an inclusive government. |
| So Mugabe, “protected” by the army in his residence in Harare, faces a tough decision. He could seek to resist the political juggernaut bearing down on him, negotiate, or obediently follow the instructions of the new masters of Zimbabwe. | So Mugabe, “protected” by the army in his residence in Harare, faces a tough decision. He could seek to resist the political juggernaut bearing down on him, negotiate, or obediently follow the instructions of the new masters of Zimbabwe. |
| Opposition officials say they believe Mugabe will resign by the weekend. Others say he will be allowed the figleaf of saying he will not stand in any forthcoming elections, and then quietly leave the country. | Opposition officials say they believe Mugabe will resign by the weekend. Others say he will be allowed the figleaf of saying he will not stand in any forthcoming elections, and then quietly leave the country. |
| The reality is that no one knows. Mugabe has a well-deserved reputation for unpredictability and tenacity. But he is old, and in a weak position. Mugabe is one of Africa’s political survivors, but a final comeback appears improbable. The era of Comrade Bob looks very near to its end. | The reality is that no one knows. Mugabe has a well-deserved reputation for unpredictability and tenacity. But he is old, and in a weak position. Mugabe is one of Africa’s political survivors, but a final comeback appears improbable. The era of Comrade Bob looks very near to its end. |
| Zimbabwe | Zimbabwe |
| Robert Mugabe | Robert Mugabe |
| Africa | Africa |
| Emmerson Mnangagwa | Emmerson Mnangagwa |
| analysis | analysis |
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