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| Amid relief over Mugabe downfall, doubts over his likely successor | Amid relief over Mugabe downfall, doubts over his likely successor |
| (2 months later) | |
| After so long under one man’s rule, even limited reform introduced by Emmerson Mnangagwa would be welcomed by many | |
| Alex Maher in Harare | |
| Fri 17 Nov 2017 05.00 GMT | |
| Last modified on Tue 5 Dec 2017 09.49 GMT | |
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| Excitement has been laced with a bitter sense of irony for many Zimbabweans celebrating the downfall of Robert Mugabe, because the 93-year-old’s rule appears to have been hijacked by one of the men who did the most to prop it up over the past four decades. | Excitement has been laced with a bitter sense of irony for many Zimbabweans celebrating the downfall of Robert Mugabe, because the 93-year-old’s rule appears to have been hijacked by one of the men who did the most to prop it up over the past four decades. |
| Far from the face of democratic opposition, the former vice-president and suspected mastermind of the takeover, Emmerson Mnangagwa, is a stalwart of Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party who has been both treasurer of its well-stocked coffers and a much-feared security and defence chief. | Far from the face of democratic opposition, the former vice-president and suspected mastermind of the takeover, Emmerson Mnangagwa, is a stalwart of Mugabe’s Zanu-PF party who has been both treasurer of its well-stocked coffers and a much-feared security and defence chief. |
| Almost every accusation of corruption and human rights abuse levelled at the nonagenarian president could be extended to his close aide and enforcer. | Almost every accusation of corruption and human rights abuse levelled at the nonagenarian president could be extended to his close aide and enforcer. |
| “As citizens we look at this and we are scared it’s the same thing [as before],” said Evan Marawire, a pastor and activist. “These are people who crafted a system that has oppressed for years and taken people’s lives as well.” | “As citizens we look at this and we are scared it’s the same thing [as before],” said Evan Marawire, a pastor and activist. “These are people who crafted a system that has oppressed for years and taken people’s lives as well.” |
| Mnangagwa had been mooted as a potential successor to the president before he was sacked this month. That dismissal, as part of a power struggle among the elites, is widely considered to have triggered the military takeover. | Mnangagwa had been mooted as a potential successor to the president before he was sacked this month. That dismissal, as part of a power struggle among the elites, is widely considered to have triggered the military takeover. |
| Members of the fractured elite are gathered in Harare this week to hammer out a deal that is expected to make Mnangagwa the actual or de facto leader of Zimbabwe and preserve Zanu-PF’s grip on power. | Members of the fractured elite are gathered in Harare this week to hammer out a deal that is expected to make Mnangagwa the actual or de facto leader of Zimbabwe and preserve Zanu-PF’s grip on power. |
| “Most likely [this] will be a palace coup where there is just a replacement of the leader, but from the same camp,” said Dewa Mavhinga, southern Africa director of Human Rights Watch (HRW), who was not optimistic the new regime would allow greater freedoms in the country. | “Most likely [this] will be a palace coup where there is just a replacement of the leader, but from the same camp,” said Dewa Mavhinga, southern Africa director of Human Rights Watch (HRW), who was not optimistic the new regime would allow greater freedoms in the country. |
| “Mnangagwa has been Mugabe’s right-hand man since before independence and then for the last 37 years,” he said. “It’s difficult to see how, going forward, he can be respectful of human rights, given his history.” | “Mnangagwa has been Mugabe’s right-hand man since before independence and then for the last 37 years,” he said. “It’s difficult to see how, going forward, he can be respectful of human rights, given his history.” |
| At 75, the man known as “the Crocodile” from his years as an independence fighter does not even have youth on his side. | At 75, the man known as “the Crocodile” from his years as an independence fighter does not even have youth on his side. |
| But after so long under one man’s rule, even limited reform would be welcomed by many in Zimbabwe. Marawire said he hoped for at least “some significant level of change, even if it is not complete”. | But after so long under one man’s rule, even limited reform would be welcomed by many in Zimbabwe. Marawire said he hoped for at least “some significant level of change, even if it is not complete”. |
| Some reforms are likely, focusing on the economic woes that have driven so many millions of Zimbabweans abroad and left millions of others barely scraping by inside its borders. | Some reforms are likely, focusing on the economic woes that have driven so many millions of Zimbabweans abroad and left millions of others barely scraping by inside its borders. |
| “He will have to take a different approach to Mugabe on certain matters. He will want to distance himself from their shared background,” said Stuart Doran, historian and author of a book about Mugabe’s rise, Kingdom, Power, Glory. | “He will have to take a different approach to Mugabe on certain matters. He will want to distance himself from their shared background,” said Stuart Doran, historian and author of a book about Mugabe’s rise, Kingdom, Power, Glory. |
| “I suspect he is going to be to paint himself as a kind of Deng Xiaoping, an economic reformer who will clean up corruption and liberalise the economy,” Doran said. | “I suspect he is going to be to paint himself as a kind of Deng Xiaoping, an economic reformer who will clean up corruption and liberalise the economy,” Doran said. |
| The political system that allowed Zanu-PF to stay in power and crush its opposition is far less likely to be a target for change, and in China Mnangagwa has a model of how a country can prosper under a government that combines economic liberalisation with tight political control. | The political system that allowed Zanu-PF to stay in power and crush its opposition is far less likely to be a target for change, and in China Mnangagwa has a model of how a country can prosper under a government that combines economic liberalisation with tight political control. |
| China has long been a model and inspiration for Mnangagwa, who first visited the country in the 1960s for training as a guerrilla fighter and who has been open about his admiration for its government. | China has long been a model and inspiration for Mnangagwa, who first visited the country in the 1960s for training as a guerrilla fighter and who has been open about his admiration for its government. |
| “Sixty years ago, no one thought China could one day become the power it is today. It was a rural country, ignored by the west, but today can you tell me one single country on this planet that can ignore China?” he said in an interview with the Chinese state broadcaster CCTV two years ago. | “Sixty years ago, no one thought China could one day become the power it is today. It was a rural country, ignored by the west, but today can you tell me one single country on this planet that can ignore China?” he said in an interview with the Chinese state broadcaster CCTV two years ago. |
| He maintained financial and professional links, even sending one of his sons to learn Mandarin and get a degree from a Chinese university. | He maintained financial and professional links, even sending one of his sons to learn Mandarin and get a degree from a Chinese university. |
| Beijing has apparently returned that respect, perhaps because of Mnangagwa’s commitment to much-longed for stability. China has huge investments in Zimbabwe and has reportedly been frustrated by the economic damage wrought by Mugabe. | Beijing has apparently returned that respect, perhaps because of Mnangagwa’s commitment to much-longed for stability. China has huge investments in Zimbabwe and has reportedly been frustrated by the economic damage wrought by Mugabe. |
| “We must know that investment can only go where it gets a return, so we must make sure we create an environment where investors are happy to put their money,” Mnangagwa said in the same interview in China. | “We must know that investment can only go where it gets a return, so we must make sure we create an environment where investors are happy to put their money,” Mnangagwa said in the same interview in China. |
| If he succeeds, he could make the democratic reforms that Marawire and others are pushing for an even more distant prospect, Doran warned. | If he succeeds, he could make the democratic reforms that Marawire and others are pushing for an even more distant prospect, Doran warned. |
| “It’s quite possible that this is simply going to result in the further entrenchment of authoritarianism in Zimbabwe, by making autocracy more economically palatable and viable,” he said. | “It’s quite possible that this is simply going to result in the further entrenchment of authoritarianism in Zimbabwe, by making autocracy more economically palatable and viable,” he said. |
| And by turning to the military for help in his battles with Mugabe, Mnangagwa may have further entrenched a longstanding problem. | And by turning to the military for help in his battles with Mugabe, Mnangagwa may have further entrenched a longstanding problem. |
| The country’s military has been heavily politicised since independence, with generals and retired officers taking the most senior civil service posts, but its role has largely been behind the scenes. | The country’s military has been heavily politicised since independence, with generals and retired officers taking the most senior civil service posts, but its role has largely been behind the scenes. |
| “People may not see it now or realise now, because of the relief of seeing the end of Mugabe’s political era, but Zimbabwe is in grave danger in terms of constitutional democracy,” said HRW’s Mahvinga. | “People may not see it now or realise now, because of the relief of seeing the end of Mugabe’s political era, but Zimbabwe is in grave danger in terms of constitutional democracy,” said HRW’s Mahvinga. |
| “In the past few days the military has openly showed its hand, shown that it will not tolerate political positions it does not agree with. So going forward there is a risk that it would be a pseudo-democracy: everyone would be an invited guest to the table of military government and could be dismissed accordingly.” | “In the past few days the military has openly showed its hand, shown that it will not tolerate political positions it does not agree with. So going forward there is a risk that it would be a pseudo-democracy: everyone would be an invited guest to the table of military government and could be dismissed accordingly.” |
| Zimbabwe | |
| Robert Mugabe | |
| Africa | |
| Emmerson Mnangagwa | |
| news | |
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