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| Pound bounces amid sharp dollar sell-off - business live | Pound bounces amid sharp dollar sell-off - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Love it or hate it, Black Friday is almost upon us. | |
| In recent years Britain has embraced the American tradition where retailers slash prices the day after Thanksgiving. | |
| British shoppers are expected to spend £10.1bn in the week of Black Friday, which falls on 24 November this year. | |
| Just in case you’re interested, here is a piece we’ve done on some of the best deals going this year: | |
| News of Greggs controversial decision to replace the baby Jesus with a sausage roll in an advent calendar has rippled across the Atlantic: | News of Greggs controversial decision to replace the baby Jesus with a sausage roll in an advent calendar has rippled across the Atlantic: |
| Greggs, which specializes in the popular delicacy, apologized for replacing the baby Jesus with a pastry wrapped around sausage meat. https://t.co/R4lFlZWtZd | Greggs, which specializes in the popular delicacy, apologized for replacing the baby Jesus with a pastry wrapped around sausage meat. https://t.co/R4lFlZWtZd |
| Draghi concludes by returning to one of his favourite themes, saying eurozone governments should do their bit to secure future economic stability by getting their “fiscal houses in order”. | Draghi concludes by returning to one of his favourite themes, saying eurozone governments should do their bit to secure future economic stability by getting their “fiscal houses in order”. |
| The ECB will do our bit, you do yours, is the message: | The ECB will do our bit, you do yours, is the message: |
| ECB’s mandate is framed in terms of price stability, as this is the best contribution that we can make to the welfare of citizens. Ensuring price stability is a precondition for the economy to be able to grow along a balanced path that can be sustained in the long run. This is the guiding principle of all our monetary policy decisions. | ECB’s mandate is framed in terms of price stability, as this is the best contribution that we can make to the welfare of citizens. Ensuring price stability is a precondition for the economy to be able to grow along a balanced path that can be sustained in the long run. This is the guiding principle of all our monetary policy decisions. |
| With the recovery ongoing, now is the right moment for the euro area to address further challenges to stability. This means actively putting our fiscal houses in order and building up buffers for the future – not just waiting for growth to gradually reduce debt. | With the recovery ongoing, now is the right moment for the euro area to address further challenges to stability. This means actively putting our fiscal houses in order and building up buffers for the future – not just waiting for growth to gradually reduce debt. |
| It means implementing structural reforms that will allow our economies to converge and grow at higher speeds over the long term. And it means addressing the remaining gaps in the institutional architecture of our monetary union. | It means implementing structural reforms that will allow our economies to converge and grow at higher speeds over the long term. And it means addressing the remaining gaps in the institutional architecture of our monetary union. |
| The full text of Mario Draghi’s speech is available on the ECB website: | The full text of Mario Draghi’s speech is available on the ECB website: |
| Speech Mario Draghi: Monetary policy and the outlook for the economy https://t.co/QmtGNrFobj | Speech Mario Draghi: Monetary policy and the outlook for the economy https://t.co/QmtGNrFobj |
| Here comes the “but” part of the ECB president’s speech. | Here comes the “but” part of the ECB president’s speech. |
| Mario Draghi says that despite solid growth and rising employment, inflation is not at the point where it will pick up without stimulus from the central bank. (Eurozone inflation dipped to 1.4% in October from 1.5% in September.) | Mario Draghi says that despite solid growth and rising employment, inflation is not at the point where it will pick up without stimulus from the central bank. (Eurozone inflation dipped to 1.4% in October from 1.5% in September.) |
| He says the recovery thus far has been highly dependent on the bank’s support. | He says the recovery thus far has been highly dependent on the bank’s support. |
| The key quote: | The key quote: |
| We are not yet at a point where the recovery of inflation can be self-sustained without our accommodative policy. A key motor of the recovery remains the very favourable financing conditions facing firms and households, which are in turn heavily contingent on our policy measures. | We are not yet at a point where the recovery of inflation can be self-sustained without our accommodative policy. A key motor of the recovery remains the very favourable financing conditions facing firms and households, which are in turn heavily contingent on our policy measures. |
| An ample degree of monetary stimulus remains necessary for underlying inflation pressures to build up and support headline inflation over the medium term. | An ample degree of monetary stimulus remains necessary for underlying inflation pressures to build up and support headline inflation over the medium term. |
| The ECB announced last month that it would slow its bond-buying programme to €60bn to €30bn a month starting from January. | The ECB announced last month that it would slow its bond-buying programme to €60bn to €30bn a month starting from January. |
| However, it extended the support for at least another nine months to the end of September 2018, “or beyond, if necessary,” Draghi says. | However, it extended the support for at least another nine months to the end of September 2018, “or beyond, if necessary,” Draghi says. |
| The key message here is that ECB policy is likely will remain supportive for some time to come. | The key message here is that ECB policy is likely will remain supportive for some time to come. |
| Guardian Business has launched a daily email. | Guardian Business has launched a daily email. |
| Besides the key news headlines that you’d expect, there’s an at-a-glance agenda of the day’s main events, insightful opinion pieces and a quality feature to sink your teeth into each day. | Besides the key news headlines that you’d expect, there’s an at-a-glance agenda of the day’s main events, insightful opinion pieces and a quality feature to sink your teeth into each day. |
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| Draghi is running through stats to illustrate how much the employment picture has improved in the eurozone. | Draghi is running through stats to illustrate how much the employment picture has improved in the eurozone. |
| He says it “a remarkable success story” that unemployment has come down in the single currency-bloc at the same time that participation in the labour market is rising, as more women and older people enter the workforce. | He says it “a remarkable success story” that unemployment has come down in the single currency-bloc at the same time that participation in the labour market is rising, as more women and older people enter the workforce. |
| Consumption is being supported by a virtuous circle between rising labour income and rising employment. Employment in the euro area has reached its highest level ever, while unemployment has fallen to its lowest rate since January 2009. | Consumption is being supported by a virtuous circle between rising labour income and rising employment. Employment in the euro area has reached its highest level ever, while unemployment has fallen to its lowest rate since January 2009. |
| Importantly, this has taken place against the backdrop of a rising participation rate, which is now 2 percentage points above its pre-crisis level. This has been driven in particular by the increased entry of women into the workforce, whose participation rate has risen by 4 percentage points since 2008 and reached an all-time high. | Importantly, this has taken place against the backdrop of a rising participation rate, which is now 2 percentage points above its pre-crisis level. This has been driven in particular by the increased entry of women into the workforce, whose participation rate has risen by 4 percentage points since 2008 and reached an all-time high. |
| It has also been strongly driven by older people. Since the start of the crisis, the participation rate has increased by 3.6 percentage points for people aged 50-54, 13.6 percentage points for 55-59 year olds and 17.1 percentage points for 60-64 year olds. | It has also been strongly driven by older people. Since the start of the crisis, the participation rate has increased by 3.6 percentage points for people aged 50-54, 13.6 percentage points for 55-59 year olds and 17.1 percentage points for 60-64 year olds. |
| Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, is speaking in Frankfurt at the European Banking Congress. | Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, is speaking in Frankfurt at the European Banking Congress. |
| He begins on a positive note on the outlook for the eurozone economy: | He begins on a positive note on the outlook for the eurozone economy: |
| The euro area is in the midst of a solid economic expansion. GDP has risen for 18 straight quarters, with the latest data and surveys pointing to unabated growth momentum in the period ahead. | The euro area is in the midst of a solid economic expansion. GDP has risen for 18 straight quarters, with the latest data and surveys pointing to unabated growth momentum in the period ahead. |
| From the ECB’s perspective, we have increasing confidence that the recovery is robust and that this momentum will continue going forward. | From the ECB’s perspective, we have increasing confidence that the recovery is robust and that this momentum will continue going forward. |
| The FTSE is suffering from the stronger pound this morning, Spread Ex’s Connor Campbell says: | The FTSE is suffering from the stronger pound this morning, Spread Ex’s Connor Campbell says: |
| The pound’s up 0.4% against the greenback, with the dollar losing its House tax plan-passing buzz, as Robert Mueller subpoenaed more than a dozen Trump campaign officials. Against the euro, meanwhile, sterling nudged 0.2% higher, keeping above €1.12. | The pound’s up 0.4% against the greenback, with the dollar losing its House tax plan-passing buzz, as Robert Mueller subpoenaed more than a dozen Trump campaign officials. Against the euro, meanwhile, sterling nudged 0.2% higher, keeping above €1.12. |
| This meant the FTSE continued to founder around the 7380 mark, dipping 0.2% as it struggles to escape its 6-week lows. As has been the case all week, commodities are doing their part, with a smattering of red among the oil and mining stocks helping suppress appetite in the UK index. | This meant the FTSE continued to founder around the 7380 mark, dipping 0.2% as it struggles to escape its 6-week lows. As has been the case all week, commodities are doing their part, with a smattering of red among the oil and mining stocks helping suppress appetite in the UK index. |
| The FTSE 100 is down 17 points this morning, and the biggest faller among its major European peers: | The FTSE 100 is down 17 points this morning, and the biggest faller among its major European peers: |
| FTSE 100: -0.2% at 7,370 | FTSE 100: -0.2% at 7,370 |
| Germany’s DAX: +0.2% at 13,074 | Germany’s DAX: +0.2% at 13,074 |
| France’s CAC: -0.02% at 5,335 | France’s CAC: -0.02% at 5,335 |
| Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.01 at 22,204 | Italy’s FTSE MIB: -0.01 at 22,204 |
| Spain’s IBEX: -0.1% at 10,074 | Spain’s IBEX: -0.1% at 10,074 |
| Europe’s STOXX 600: +0.02% at 385 | Europe’s STOXX 600: +0.02% at 385 |
| Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel prize-winning economist, has been interviewed by the Guardian’s economics editor, Larry Elliott, and it’s well worth a watch if you missed it: | Joseph Stiglitz, the Nobel prize-winning economist, has been interviewed by the Guardian’s economics editor, Larry Elliott, and it’s well worth a watch if you missed it: |
| Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. | Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business. |
| The pound has a spring in its step this morning, hitting a two-week high against the dollar of $1.3252. | The pound has a spring in its step this morning, hitting a two-week high against the dollar of $1.3252. |
| Sterling is benefitting from a sharp sell-off of the dollar triggered by reports in the US that special counsel Robert Mueller served President Trump’s election campaign a subpoena in mid-October, requesting documents relating to Russia. | Sterling is benefitting from a sharp sell-off of the dollar triggered by reports in the US that special counsel Robert Mueller served President Trump’s election campaign a subpoena in mid-October, requesting documents relating to Russia. |
| As CMC Markets’ Michael Hewson explains, positive sentiment earlier in the day (generated by the passing of a bill in the House of Representatives aimed at cutting US company rates from 35% to 20%), quickly evaporated: | As CMC Markets’ Michael Hewson explains, positive sentiment earlier in the day (generated by the passing of a bill in the House of Representatives aimed at cutting US company rates from 35% to 20%), quickly evaporated: |
| The passing of yesterday’s bill helped the US dollar close near its intraday peaks yesterday, while also helping push up US yields with the 2 year yield hitting its highest level since October 2008. | The passing of yesterday’s bill helped the US dollar close near its intraday peaks yesterday, while also helping push up US yields with the 2 year yield hitting its highest level since October 2008. |
| These US dollar gains were pretty short-lived and soon gave way to selling on reports that Trump officials had been subpoenaed by special attorney Robert Mueller as part of the investigation into Russian involvement in the Trump Presidential campaign. | These US dollar gains were pretty short-lived and soon gave way to selling on reports that Trump officials had been subpoenaed by special attorney Robert Mueller as part of the investigation into Russian involvement in the Trump Presidential campaign. |
| This sent the US dollar sharply lower against the yen, dragging on the Nikkei as well as pushing the euro above 1.1800 and the pound to a two week high above 1.3200. | This sent the US dollar sharply lower against the yen, dragging on the Nikkei as well as pushing the euro above 1.1800 and the pound to a two week high above 1.3200. |
| The pound is currently up 0.3% at $1.3229 and is up 0.1% against the euro at €1.1223. | The pound is currently up 0.3% at $1.3229 and is up 0.1% against the euro at €1.1223. |
| The dollar index – which measures the greenback against a basket of other major currencies - is down 0.2%. | The dollar index – which measures the greenback against a basket of other major currencies - is down 0.2%. |
| Also coming up today... | Also coming up today... |
| 8.30am GMT: Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, is giving a keynote speech at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt | 8.30am GMT: Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, is giving a keynote speech at the European Banking Congress in Frankfurt |
| 1.30pm GMT: Housing starts data for October will give the latest snapshot of the US property market | 1.30pm GMT: Housing starts data for October will give the latest snapshot of the US property market |