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Argentine Navy Pares Back Hopes of Finding Missing Submarine Search for Missing Argentine Submarine Raises Grim Scenarios
(about 2 hours later)
MAR DEL PLATA, Argentina — After an initial burst of optimism that they might be closer to finding a submarine that has been missing since Wednesday, the Argentine authorities on Sunday began expressing caution as fears grew about the fate of the 44 crew members. MAR DEL PLATA, Argentina — As search teams raced against time, and stormy seas, to find a missing Argentine submarine, officials said on Sunday that earlier hopeful reports that the crew might have tried to make satellite calls in recent days appeared to be wrong.
The Defense Ministry on Saturday based its hopeful statements on reports that there had been seven attempts to communicate by satellite phone around the search area. But on Sunday the navy said that it was still analyzing the calls and that there was no “clear evidence” that the vessel originating the calls was the submarine. The Defense Ministry on Saturday had based optimistic statements on reports that there were seven attempts to communicate by satellite phone from the search area off the Patagonia coast.
Iridium, a satellite phone company, also said in a statement that it had found no evidence that the Iridium phone aboard the submarine had been used since Wednesday. It was not immediately clear whether satellite equipment from a different provider might have also been onboard. But on Sunday, the Argentine Navy said that it was still analyzing the calls and that there was no “clear evidence” that the calls had come from the submarine. And the satellite phone company Iridium said in a statement that it had found no evidence that an Iridium phone aboard the vessel had been used since Wednesday morning.
The search for the San Juan was hampered on Sunday by inclement weather and strong winds in the area off Argentina’s Patagonian coast, with waves reaching about 20 to 26 feet, said Adm. Gabriel González, the chief of the Mar del Plata base that was the submarine’s destination. As a result, most of the search efforts were conducted by planes rather than ships. The reports came as an increasingly robust international effort was hampered by stormy weather in the 186-square-mile search area.
The submarine, which stopped communicating on Wednesday, had been due to arrive back in port on Sunday. The anxious families of the crew members have been gathering inside the naval base. Waves towered as high as 22 feet, while thunderstorms and powerful gusts of wind hindered the visibility and mobility of Argentine, American, British, Chilean and Brazilian military personnel scouring the area in ships and aircraft.
“We continue to pray and wait!!” Marcela Moyano, whose husband, Hernán Rodríguez, is on the submarine, wrote on Facebook. “A little bit confusing, no??? They won’t take me out of here until I see you get down from the submarine, my love.” “These are less than favorable conditions that do make things difficult,” said Cmdr. Erik Reynolds, a United States Navy spokesman. “You’re talking about 44 sailors out there. If they’re in trouble, there’s a finite amount of time to get to them, so I think there is a great deal of concern by the international community.”
The Navy has two psychologists, one psychiatrist and two doctors at the base for the family members, said a Navy official who was not authorized to speak on the record. The mystery surrounding the fate of the crew aboard the San Juan, a German-made submarine that has been part of Argentina’s fleet since 1985, has transfixed the nation since news of its disappearance broke early Friday. The submarine last made radio contact on Wednesday.
International participation in the search grew on Sunday even as the Navy said that most of the efforts to find the submarine would be by air because of the bad weather. Roughly 200 family members of the service members onboard were invited to await news at the Mar del Plata Naval Base in this seaside city, where two psychologists and one psychiatrist were on hand.
The United States Navy deployed two “independent rescue assets” from its Undersea Rescue Command, which is based in San Diego. This is in addition to the Navy P-8A Poseidon aircraft and the NASA P-3 research aircraft that had already joined the search. “This has turned into one big family, and we are all helping each other get through this difficult time,” María Morales, 51, the mother of crew member Luís García, said in an interview. “Sadly we don’t have any news, but at least there is no bad news.”
The British military is also providing assistance, which is particularly notable given the war Britain and Argentina fought in 1982 over the Falkland Islands, which Argentina calls the Malvinas and has long claimed as its sovereign territory. On Sunday, Argentine Navy officials sought to temper hopes raised the previous day by reports of the satellite phone calls.
A British Navy ship has started to trace the submarine’s route from the moment of last contact until its intended destination. The navy also deployed its “specialist Submarine Parachute Assistance Group,” and another patrol vessel — the HMS Clyde — is scheduled to join the search from the Falkland Islands. A C-130 aircraft that is also based in the Falklands “remain stood by to assist with the aerial search efforts,” the navy said. Iridium officials have repeatedly called the company’s satellite phone onboard the vessel since Friday, but have had no luck getting through, according to an employee familiar with the effort who was not authorized to speak on the record. Argentine officials would not say whether the vessel had other satellite phones onboard.
The NATO Submarine Rescue System has joined the search, as have planes and ships from Brazil and Chile, according to Argentina’s Navy. Ships owned by private companies, including France’s oil company Total, are also scheduled to join the efforts. Officials involved in the search and submarine experts following developments were contemplating a range of possibilities for what might have happened to the submarine.
Pope Francis, who is Argentine, mentioned the missing submarine during his Sunday prayer, the second day in a row he publicly referred to the San Juan crew. The best-case scenario, according to some experts, was that the submarine’s communications gear malfunctioned — perhaps as a result of a fire or flood — but that it did not lose the ability to navigate. Working against that theory is the fact that the submarine was due to arrive at its home port here on Sunday.
The submarine was 240 nautical miles from the coast when it last communicated with the base. “It’s grim,” said Capt. Richard Bryant, a retired United States Navy submarine commander. “It implies that the ship is either on the surface without the ability to use its propulsion or that the ship is submerged.”
The San Juan was traveling from the Patagonian city of Ushuaia to Mar del Plata, conducting routine security patrol and military training exercises. Argentina has three submarines — one of which is under repair — and they are frequently deployed to combat illegal fishing. The first of those possibilities is deeply concerning, but not hopeless, according to experts. Given the stormy conditions, the crew is in significant peril if the vessel is being whiplashed.
The grimmest alternative is that the submarine sank as a result of a catastrophic event such as an explosion or fire. If the crew survived such an event, those onboard could conceivably have enough oxygen for several days after it went under, according to an Argentine Navy official who was not authorized to speak on the record.
If it is flailing on the surface, and the crew manages to weather the storm, the sailors would have enough fresh water and food to last for about 25 days, the official said.
The growing concern on Sunday was fueled by the fact that the crew had not activated emergency beacons that are standard in commercial and military vessels.
“The fact that we haven’t had communication for so long, that it didn’t show up at port as expected, and the fact that at least the initial search effort hasn’t found anything yet all point to the fact that the submarine may well unfortunately have been lost,” Captain Bryant said.
In Mar del Plata, residents on Sunday affixed Argentine flags and signs outside the military base.
“With the soul at a standstill until they return,” one read. “Stay strong Argentina; In God we trust; We await your return,” said another message, scrawled in large black letters on a flag.
Argentine veterans were among the well-wishers who gathered outside the base on Sunday, a bitterly cold and gusty day in this city, a popular summertime destination.
“I think it’s very important to be here to show support for the crew and their family, show them there is a city rooting for their safe return,” said Adolfo Albornoz, 79, a veteran of the Falklands War.
Mr. Albornoz said he resented the continued British control of the islands, which Argentina calls the Malvinas, that were the subject of that short war in 1982. “But in this case I’m glad they’re helping out. This is a time to set aside our differences.”