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Zimbabwe's strange crisis is a very modern kind of coup Zimbabwe's strange crisis is a very modern kind of coup
(2 months later)
Historically, African takeovers have been seismic and violent, but now participants are more wary of international opinion
Jason Burke Africa correspondent
Tue 21 Nov 2017 05.00 GMT
Last modified on Mon 27 Nov 2017 13.27 GMT
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It looked like a coup from a movie: a convoy of armoured vehicles, the president under house arrest, and the general on the nation’s screens talking of “restoring stability” in the small hours of the morning.It looked like a coup from a movie: a convoy of armoured vehicles, the president under house arrest, and the general on the nation’s screens talking of “restoring stability” in the small hours of the morning.
But since the military takeover in Zimbabwe a week ago events have departed from the script. President Robert Mugabe has not been harmed and remains in power, at least theoretically. When he refused to resign on live television on Sunday night, there were no repercussions. To oust him, parliament are using a cumbersome process of impeachment.But since the military takeover in Zimbabwe a week ago events have departed from the script. President Robert Mugabe has not been harmed and remains in power, at least theoretically. When he refused to resign on live television on Sunday night, there were no repercussions. To oust him, parliament are using a cumbersome process of impeachment.
There is a stark contrast with many other coups d’état in Africa over the years, which have often seen heavy fighting as the military tried to seize power, and sometimes the death of the incumbent leader.There is a stark contrast with many other coups d’état in Africa over the years, which have often seen heavy fighting as the military tried to seize power, and sometimes the death of the incumbent leader.
“I think it is partly a Zimbabwe thing and a lot to do with the personality of Robert Mugabe. He is known as a liberation hero and revered in most African states despite the huge damage he has done to his country, and the military here understood that to hurt him would incur the wrath of much of Africa,” said David Coltart, a senior opposition politician in Zimbabwe.“I think it is partly a Zimbabwe thing and a lot to do with the personality of Robert Mugabe. He is known as a liberation hero and revered in most African states despite the huge damage he has done to his country, and the military here understood that to hurt him would incur the wrath of much of Africa,” said David Coltart, a senior opposition politician in Zimbabwe.
There have been more than 200 military coups since 1960 in Africa, many leading to seismic changes in the history of countries and regions as well as significant bloodshed. General Idi Amin seized power in Uganda from President Milton Obote in 1971, unleashing a reign of terror still remembered today. The coup d’état in 2012 by mutinying soldiers in Mali so destabilised the country that it allowed Islamic militants to seize much of its northern half, necessitating an intervention by French troops to restore order. Nigeria has seen eight military takeovers.There have been more than 200 military coups since 1960 in Africa, many leading to seismic changes in the history of countries and regions as well as significant bloodshed. General Idi Amin seized power in Uganda from President Milton Obote in 1971, unleashing a reign of terror still remembered today. The coup d’état in 2012 by mutinying soldiers in Mali so destabilised the country that it allowed Islamic militants to seize much of its northern half, necessitating an intervention by French troops to restore order. Nigeria has seen eight military takeovers.
Leaders have also been assassinated while still in power. Laurent Kabila, president of the Democratic Republic of Congo was shot dead in 2001, for example.Leaders have also been assassinated while still in power. Laurent Kabila, president of the Democratic Republic of Congo was shot dead in 2001, for example.
The years of the cold war generated the highest frequency of coups, and much of the worst associated violence.The years of the cold war generated the highest frequency of coups, and much of the worst associated violence.
Robert Mugabe fires his powerful vice-president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, clearing the way for his wife, Grace, to succeed him as leader of Zimbabwe. Grace had accused 75-year-old Mnangagwa, a former intelligence chief, of being the “root cause of factionalism” in the ruling Zanu-PF party. Robert Mugabe fires his powerful vice-president, Emmerson Mnangagwa, clearing the way for his wife, Grace, to succeed him as leader of Zimbabwe. Grace had accused 75-year-old Mnangagwa, a former intelligence chief, of being the “root cause of factionalism” in the ruling Zanu-PF party. 
Mnangagwa reportedly flees to South Africa, but vows to return to Zimbabwe to lead party members. The party "is not personal property for you and your wife to do as you please," Mnangagwa tells Mugabe in an angry five-page statement.Mnangagwa reportedly flees to South Africa, but vows to return to Zimbabwe to lead party members. The party "is not personal property for you and your wife to do as you please," Mnangagwa tells Mugabe in an angry five-page statement.
Zimbabwe’s army chief demands a halt to the purge in Zanu-PF, and warns that the military could intervene. “We must remind those behind the current treacherous shenanigans that when it comes to matters of protecting our revolution, the military will not hesitate to step in,” General Constantino Chiwenga told a media conference attended by about 90 senior army officers.Zimbabwe’s army chief demands a halt to the purge in Zanu-PF, and warns that the military could intervene. “We must remind those behind the current treacherous shenanigans that when it comes to matters of protecting our revolution, the military will not hesitate to step in,” General Constantino Chiwenga told a media conference attended by about 90 senior army officers.
A convoy of tanks is seen moving on the outskirts of the Zimbabwean capital but the military denies a coup. In an overnight declaration on state television, they say Mugabe is safe and they are "only targeting criminals around him".A convoy of tanks is seen moving on the outskirts of the Zimbabwean capital but the military denies a coup. In an overnight declaration on state television, they say Mugabe is safe and they are "only targeting criminals around him".
Military vehicles take control of the streets of Harare in the early hours. South Africa says Mugabe has told its president, Jacob Zuma, by telephone that he is under house arrest but is "fine".Military vehicles take control of the streets of Harare in the early hours. South Africa says Mugabe has told its president, Jacob Zuma, by telephone that he is under house arrest but is "fine".
Yet this has moderated more recently and over the last 15 years there has been a “hardening anti-coup attitude”, according to Nic Cheeseman, professor of democracy at Birmingham University in the UK.Yet this has moderated more recently and over the last 15 years there has been a “hardening anti-coup attitude”, according to Nic Cheeseman, professor of democracy at Birmingham University in the UK.
“Leaders don’t have much of an incentive to encourage free and fair elections but a coup threatens everybody, so it is much easier to get a consensus on anti-coup norms than democratic norms … People are getting smarter at avoiding criticism for coups,” Cheeseman said.“Leaders don’t have much of an incentive to encourage free and fair elections but a coup threatens everybody, so it is much easier to get a consensus on anti-coup norms than democratic norms … People are getting smarter at avoiding criticism for coups,” Cheeseman said.
This has meant leaders of takeover are much more careful to manage domestic and international opinion than before. If a transfer of power is declared unconstitutional it can lead to a nation being suspended from the African Union (AU) and suffering significant consequences in terms of aid and investment.This has meant leaders of takeover are much more careful to manage domestic and international opinion than before. If a transfer of power is declared unconstitutional it can lead to a nation being suspended from the African Union (AU) and suffering significant consequences in terms of aid and investment.
Any new administration in Zimbabwe would have little chance of winning the massive funding required to restructure the collapsing economy if the international consensus was that it was illegal.Any new administration in Zimbabwe would have little chance of winning the massive funding required to restructure the collapsing economy if the international consensus was that it was illegal.
Both the AU and the regional South African Development Community (SADC) have been guarded in their statements about the situation in Zimbabwe, and have withheld any endorsement of the takeover.Both the AU and the regional South African Development Community (SADC) have been guarded in their statements about the situation in Zimbabwe, and have withheld any endorsement of the takeover.
On Tuesday the SADC meets in Angola to discuss the crisis there. The generals in Harare will be watching their conclusions carefully.On Tuesday the SADC meets in Angola to discuss the crisis there. The generals in Harare will be watching their conclusions carefully.
Zimbabwe
Africa
Robert Mugabe
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