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Symbolism of a stagnating economy | Symbolism of a stagnating economy |
(4 days later) | |
By Hugh Pym Economics Editor, BBC News The signs point to economic growth being on a downward path | By Hugh Pym Economics Editor, BBC News The signs point to economic growth being on a downward path |
In one sense these figures won't affect the lives of shoppers and workers. | In one sense these figures won't affect the lives of shoppers and workers. |
They refer to the three month period ending in June. That won't change people's experiences of the economy. | |
And you could say there isn't much difference in practice between marginal growth and no growth. | And you could say there isn't much difference in practice between marginal growth and no growth. |
But the figures are highly significant for the economy. | But the figures are highly significant for the economy. |
They show that household spending actually fell in the quarter, further evidence of the sharp squeeze on consumers. | They show that household spending actually fell in the quarter, further evidence of the sharp squeeze on consumers. |
There was a positive contribution from overseas trade, but only because imports fell sharply, not because of any great boost to exports. Falling imports is another indicator of faltering consumer demand. | There was a positive contribution from overseas trade, but only because imports fell sharply, not because of any great boost to exports. Falling imports is another indicator of faltering consumer demand. |
Economic record | Economic record |
And there is a major symbolic aspect to the zero growth announcement | And there is a major symbolic aspect to the zero growth announcement |
This government liked to highlight the unbroken run of growth going back to 1997, when it came to power, and five years before. | This government liked to highlight the unbroken run of growth going back to 1997, when it came to power, and five years before. |
It is a record unmatched by any other leading economy. | It is a record unmatched by any other leading economy. |
That run has now come to an end. Few would predict when it will pick up again. | That run has now come to an end. Few would predict when it will pick up again. |
Of course these figures could yet be revised again, perhaps back upwards. But all the signs suggest that economic growth is on a downward path. | Of course these figures could yet be revised again, perhaps back upwards. But all the signs suggest that economic growth is on a downward path. |
The third quarter, which we are now in, and the fourth could well turn negative, signifying a technical recession. | The third quarter, which we are now in, and the fourth could well turn negative, signifying a technical recession. |
Even if flat or slightly positive, this year's growth will be the weakest since 1992. | Even if flat or slightly positive, this year's growth will be the weakest since 1992. |
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