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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| Former Bank governor 'encouraged eastern European immigration' | Former Bank governor 'encouraged eastern European immigration' |
| (14 days later) | |
| Mervyn King encouraged Tony Blair to open the doors to immigration from eastern Europe without any transitional controls, according to a former senior diplomat who claims the decision partly drove the Brexit vote more than a decade later. | Mervyn King encouraged Tony Blair to open the doors to immigration from eastern Europe without any transitional controls, according to a former senior diplomat who claims the decision partly drove the Brexit vote more than a decade later. |
| Sir Ivan Rogers, who went on to be David Cameron’s leading adviser on Europe and then Britain’s EU ambassador, called it “an under-appreciated irony” that King – who eventually became a vocal Eurosceptic – was a strong advocate of the move. | Sir Ivan Rogers, who went on to be David Cameron’s leading adviser on Europe and then Britain’s EU ambassador, called it “an under-appreciated irony” that King – who eventually became a vocal Eurosceptic – was a strong advocate of the move. |
| In a 12,000-word essay about the UK’s relationship with the EU and how it broke down, Rogers recounts a private conversation between Blair – for whom he was private principal secretary at the time – and the then Bank of England governor. | In a 12,000-word essay about the UK’s relationship with the EU and how it broke down, Rogers recounts a private conversation between Blair – for whom he was private principal secretary at the time – and the then Bank of England governor. |
| The claim that Britain “sends the EU £350m a week” is wrong because: | The claim that Britain “sends the EU £350m a week” is wrong because: |
| The rebate negotiated by Margaret Thatcher is removed before anything is paid to Brussels. In 2014, this meant Britain actually “sent” £276m a week to Brussels; in 2016, the figure was £252m. | The rebate negotiated by Margaret Thatcher is removed before anything is paid to Brussels. In 2014, this meant Britain actually “sent” £276m a week to Brussels; in 2016, the figure was £252m. |
| Slightly less than half that sum – the money that Britain does send to the EU – either comes back to the UK to be spent mainly on agriculture, regional aid, research and community projects, or gets counted towards the country’s international aid target. | Slightly less than half that sum – the money that Britain does send to the EU – either comes back to the UK to be spent mainly on agriculture, regional aid, research and community projects, or gets counted towards the country’s international aid target. |
| Regardless of how much the UK “saves” by leaving the EU, the claim that a future government would be able to spend it on the NHS is highly misleading because: | Regardless of how much the UK “saves” by leaving the EU, the claim that a future government would be able to spend it on the NHS is highly misleading because: |
| It assumes the government would choose to spend on the NHS the money it currently gets back from the EU (£115m a week in 2014), thus cutting funding for agriculture, regional development and research by that amount. | It assumes the government would choose to spend on the NHS the money it currently gets back from the EU (£115m a week in 2014), thus cutting funding for agriculture, regional development and research by that amount. |
| It assumes the UK economy will not be adversely affected by Brexit, which many economists doubt. | It assumes the UK economy will not be adversely affected by Brexit, which many economists doubt. |
| “King pressed the case to open the labour market without transition on the grounds that it would help lower wage growth and inflation, address supply bottlenecks in a fast-growing pre-financial crisis economy, and help keep interest rates low,” he said. | “King pressed the case to open the labour market without transition on the grounds that it would help lower wage growth and inflation, address supply bottlenecks in a fast-growing pre-financial crisis economy, and help keep interest rates low,” he said. |
| Rogers added that King believed the UK could exploit “first mover advantage” for the economy by attracting workers who faced continued controls elsewhere in Europe. | Rogers added that King believed the UK could exploit “first mover advantage” for the economy by attracting workers who faced continued controls elsewhere in Europe. |
| Delivering the essay as a speech at Oxford University on Friday, Rogers described how Cameron later said the decision to not put in place transitional controls had been “a big mistake”. | Delivering the essay as a speech at Oxford University on Friday, Rogers described how Cameron later said the decision to not put in place transitional controls had been “a big mistake”. |
| And, he added, it had strengthened two of the leave campaign’s most controversial but also powerful arguments in the 2016 referendum: promising £350m a week for the NHS and claiming that Turkey could join the EU. | And, he added, it had strengthened two of the leave campaign’s most controversial but also powerful arguments in the 2016 referendum: promising £350m a week for the NHS and claiming that Turkey could join the EU. |
| “The two most visible effects of the enlargement policy championed so vigorously by the British elite were something close to a tripling of the UK’s net contribution to EU coffers, and the huge influx of eastern European labour to the UK, facilitated by the Blair government decision to open the UK labour market without the transitional periods permitted by the treaties,” said Rogers. | “The two most visible effects of the enlargement policy championed so vigorously by the British elite were something close to a tripling of the UK’s net contribution to EU coffers, and the huge influx of eastern European labour to the UK, facilitated by the Blair government decision to open the UK labour market without the transitional periods permitted by the treaties,” said Rogers. |
| “When the UK’s pro-EU elites excoriate Cameron’s decision on the referendum, or his strategy to win it, they have also, I think, to reflect on how they underestimate the real work consequences of enlargement,” he said, pointing specifically to the impact on so-called left-behind communities. | “When the UK’s pro-EU elites excoriate Cameron’s decision on the referendum, or his strategy to win it, they have also, I think, to reflect on how they underestimate the real work consequences of enlargement,” he said, pointing specifically to the impact on so-called left-behind communities. |
| Rogers said the free movement decision was barely discussed in Downing Street before May 2004, and said internal forecasts on how many people might come were “laughably low, and were discredited within months... We should have all asked ourselves then whether they could possibly be right.” | Rogers said the free movement decision was barely discussed in Downing Street before May 2004, and said internal forecasts on how many people might come were “laughably low, and were discredited within months... We should have all asked ourselves then whether they could possibly be right.” |
| He said there could have been a “great and serious argument” made for why it was in the UK’s interest to welcome former communist eastern European states into the EU and pay large sums of taxpayer money towards them. However, Rogers said it was “rarely, if ever, compellingly made at leader level”. | He said there could have been a “great and serious argument” made for why it was in the UK’s interest to welcome former communist eastern European states into the EU and pay large sums of taxpayer money towards them. However, Rogers said it was “rarely, if ever, compellingly made at leader level”. |
| In the speech, Rogers said Cameron’s key aim in his attempted renegotiation with the EU was to secure an exceptional and different form of membership for the UK. However, he suggested that a focus on pan-European reform may have been more effective. | In the speech, Rogers said Cameron’s key aim in his attempted renegotiation with the EU was to secure an exceptional and different form of membership for the UK. However, he suggested that a focus on pan-European reform may have been more effective. |
| While free movement was central to the final vote on EU membership, Rogers argued that it was – in fact – the eurozone crisis that had first emboldened Eurosceptics to call for an in/out referendum. “They were not talking much about free movement, borders, or the ECJ [European court of justice] then. It was about divorce from the burning building,” he said. | While free movement was central to the final vote on EU membership, Rogers argued that it was – in fact – the eurozone crisis that had first emboldened Eurosceptics to call for an in/out referendum. “They were not talking much about free movement, borders, or the ECJ [European court of justice] then. It was about divorce from the burning building,” he said. |
| Rogers suggested that many of the Eurosceptics had spent decades arguing that they wanted the UK’s relationship with the EU to be based on the single market, rather than closer cooperation. He suggested it was ironic that those same voices were now demanding that the UK break even those close economic ties. | Rogers suggested that many of the Eurosceptics had spent decades arguing that they wanted the UK’s relationship with the EU to be based on the single market, rather than closer cooperation. He suggested it was ironic that those same voices were now demanding that the UK break even those close economic ties. |