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In Honduras Election, Ex-Sportscaster Takes Lead Over President In Honduras Election, Ex-Sportscaster Takes Lead Over President
(about 13 hours later)
MEXICO CITY — Salvador Nasralla, a former sportscaster running at the head of a left-wing alliance, was leading Monday in Honduran elections and was rushing to claim victory over President Juan Orlando Hernández. MEXICO CITY — As Honduras counted votes on Monday in its presidential election, Salvador Nasralla, a former sportscaster representing a left-wing alliance, took an early lead over President Juan Orlando Hernández, an unexpected development that could reshuffle the country’s political forces if the trend holds.
A win by Mr. Nasralla would represent a sharp rebuke to Mr. Hernández, an authoritarian leader who has maneuvered to take control over most of the country’s fragile institutions. A victory by Mr. Nasralla would be a sharp rebuke to Mr. Hernández, an authoritarian who has maneuvered to take control over most of the country’s fragile institutions.
Almost 10 hours after the polls closed, Honduras’s electoral tribunal, which is allied with Mr. Hernández, reported that Mr. Nasralla was ahead by almost five percentage points with ballots counted at more than half of polling sites. On Monday, Mr. Nasralla began to take on the role of a president-elect, granting a radio interview to outline his policies and leading a rally of supporters in Tegucigalpa, the capital.
“We have defeated fraud,” Mr. Nasralla told supporters, referring to widespread suspicions that Mr. Hernández’s National Party might try to rig the vote. “There is no doubt.” With results from 57 percent of the polling sites counted, Mr. Nasralla led Mr. Hernández by almost five percentage points. But the electoral tribunal offered no new results as the day wore on and its president, David Matamoros, said that more information would be released only when the tribunal received more data. “We cannot be irresponsible and give out information we do not have,” he said.
Just before the tribunal released its numbers, Mr. Hernández had told supporters that he was ahead by seven points. The delay only raised tensions. A group of citizen organizations, the Coalition for Electoral Observation N-26, called the silence “unjustified” and warned that it “could wear out citizens’ patience.”
Supporters of Mr. Nasralla’s alliance celebrated early Monday, filling the small plaza outside the hotel in Tegucigalpa, the capital, where the tribunal had set up operations for the vote. Mr. Hernández, who sent out surrogates from his National Party to argue on television that the final count would turn his way, kept out of sight on Monday. “This ends when it ends,” the president wrote in a post on Twitter.
Although Mr. Hernández has succeeded in reducing some of the murderous violence besieging Honduras, and he has promoted social programs, his likely election loss reflected how polarizing he has become. But a third contender for president, Luis Zelaya, a university rector who ran as the candidate for the traditional Liberal Party, congratulated Mr. Nasralla and called on Mr. Hernández to concede.
How he managed to get his name on the ballot may prove to be what damaged his candidacy the most. The Honduran Constitution includes an ironclad ban on presidential re-election, a prohibition so unshakable that it was cited as the reason for ousting President Manuel Zelaya in a 2009 coup. “All Honduras has said no to re-election,” Mr. Zelaya said at a news conference. “That has to be respected. The people have decided.”
Back then, Mr. Zelaya was believed to be angling for a way to get around the ban, although his left-wing policies may have been the real reason the country’s political and business elites wanted him out of Honduras. Although Mr. Hernández was widely expected to win the election, he has become a polarizing figure as he expanded his power over every branch of government.
If Mr. Nasralla becomes president, Mr. Zelaya will return firmly to the center of Honduras’s political scene. What may have damaged his candidacy the most, though, was the way he maneuvered to get his name on the ballot. The Honduran Constitution includes a ban on a second term for a president, a prohibition so unshakable that it was cited as the reason for ousting President Manuel Zelaya in a 2009 coup.
As the founder of Libre, the main party in the alliance, Mr. Zelaya campaigned with Mr. Nasralla and was widely seen as the alliance’s main strategist. The alliance platform was drawn up with contributions from Libre supporters, including ministers and economists who had worked in Mr. Zelaya’s government. But two years ago, five Supreme Court judges ruled that the prohibition was unconstitutional, clearing the way for Mr. Hernández to run again. All five owed their jobs to Mr. Hernández after their predecessors were dismissed or moved.
Although Mr. Hernández tried during the campaign to portray the alliance as a far-left group allied with Venezuela, at least some voters may have handed their votes to Mr. Nasralla because they were nostalgic for Mr. Zelaya, who raised the minimum wage sharply. Back then, Mr. Zelaya (who is not related to Luis Zelaya) was believed to be angling for a way to get around the ban, although his left-wing policies were most likely the real reason the country’s political and business elites wanted him out.
Mr. Nasralla, who did not enter politics until 2011 and speaks on the stump with the cadences of the game-show host he once was, has benefited from the perception that he is an outsider who is not corrupt. If Mr. Nasralla becomes president, Mr. Zelaya will return to the center of Honduras’s political scene.
Mr. Hernández gambled that voters would be willing to hand him more power in exchange for increased security. When he took office in 2013, drug and gang violence made Honduras the deadliest country in the world outside a war zone. With tens of millions of dollars a year in aid from the United States, Mr. Hernández dismantled several drug cartels and extradited a dozen traffickers to the United States. As the founder of Libre, the main party in the alliance, Mr. Zelaya campaigned with Mr. Nasralla and was widely seen as the alliance’s main strategist. The platform was drawn up with contributions from Libre supporters, including ministers and economists who had worked in Mr. Zelaya’s government.
He also set up special investigative units in the police and the attorney general’s office and improved street policing in some of the worst neighborhoods. Mr. Nasralla, who did not enter politics until 2011 and speaks with the cadence of the game-show host he once was, has benefited from the perception that he is an uncorrupted outsider.
Thousands of corrupt or inefficient police officers were fired and replaced by newly trained ones. It is unclear if the top commanders believed to have been working for drug cartels will face prosecution. In an interview with a local radio station on Monday, he began to lay out his plans, suggesting that the electoral tribunal and the Supreme Court would be replaced.
The overall homicide rate fell 28 percent through 2016 and has continued to decline, although Tegucigalpa and the country’s industrial capital, San Pedro Sula, remain among the world’s most murderous cities. Mr. Hernández had gambled that voters would be willing to hand him more power in exchange for increased security. When he took office in 2013, drug and gang violence had made Honduras the deadliest country in the world outside a war zone. With tens of millions of dollars a year in aid from the United States and pressure from Washington, Mr. Hernández dismantled several drug cartels and extradited a dozen traffickers to the United States.
But Mr. Hernández has been tainted by broad evidence of corruption in the National Party. Frustration with corruption spilled onto the streets in 2015, when Hondurans marched in torchlit demonstrations for weeks. The overall homicide rate fell 28 percent through 2016 and has continued to decline, according to statistics compiled by the country’s main university, although the homicide rate remains high in Tegucigalpa and the country’s industrial capital, San Pedro Sula.
The movement forced Mr. Hernández to accept an outside panel of foreign prosecutors to work alongside Hondurans in the attorney general’s office to prepare anticorruption cases. But Mr. Hernández has been tainted by broad evidence of corruption in the National Party. Frustration with corruption spilled into the streets in 2015, when Hondurans marched in demonstrations for weeks.
The fate of that panel would be unclear under Mr. Nasralla’s presidency. The movement forced Mr. Hernández to accept an outside panel of foreign prosecutors, sponsored by the Organization of American States, to work alongside Hondurans in the attorney general’s office to prepare anticorruption cases.
The government would be unlikely to roll back measures that have worked to reduce violence, although Mr. Nasralla has raised questions about some elements of the police purge. The alliance’s platform also criticizes what it calls the “servile” relationship with the United States. The fate of that panel would be unclear if Mr. Nasralla becomes president.
Mr. Nasralla would also face demands to increase economic growth and create jobs in one of Latin America’s poorest and most unequal countries. Almost two-thirds of Hondurans live in poverty and struggle for access to health care and other services.