This article is from the source 'independent' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-oecd-economic-forecast-paris-gdp-eu-european-union-a8079586.html

The article has changed 5 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 1 Version 2
Brexit to result in a sharp slowdown in UK economic growth, OECD predicts Brexit to result in a sharp slowdown in UK economic growth, OECD predicts
(35 minutes later)
The OECD expects Brexit to result in a sharp slowdown in UK growth.The OECD expects Brexit to result in a sharp slowdown in UK growth.
In its November forecast, the Paris-based multilateral think tank projects UK GDP growth this year of 1.5 per cent, slowing to 1.2 per cent in 2018.In its November forecast, the Paris-based multilateral think tank projects UK GDP growth this year of 1.5 per cent, slowing to 1.2 per cent in 2018.
In 2019, when the UK is set to leave the EU, the OECD expects growth of just 1.1 per cent. In 2019, when the UK is set to leave the EU, the OECD expects growth of just 1.1 per cent. 
"The growth slowdown is expected to continue through 2018, due to continuing uncertainty over the outcome of negotiations around the decision to leave the European Union and the impact of higher inflation on household purchasing power," it said, adding that there would be a "moderate" rise in the UK's current 4.3 per cent unemployment rate."The growth slowdown is expected to continue through 2018, due to continuing uncertainty over the outcome of negotiations around the decision to leave the European Union and the impact of higher inflation on household purchasing power," it said, adding that there would be a "moderate" rise in the UK's current 4.3 per cent unemployment rate.
The 1.2 precent forecast for 2018 growth is actually up on the OECD's September forecast of growth of just 1 per cent. The 1.2 per cent forecast for 2018 growth is actually up on the OECD's September forecast of growth of just 1 per cent.
“The upward revision of 0.2 percentage points for 2018 in part reflects the slower pace of fiscal consolidation announced in the Budget, and also partly reflects our revised technical assumption on the exit from the EU,” the OECD said.“The upward revision of 0.2 percentage points for 2018 in part reflects the slower pace of fiscal consolidation announced in the Budget, and also partly reflects our revised technical assumption on the exit from the EU,” the OECD said.
It is now assuming that the UK secures a trade and regulation transition agreement with the rest of the EU to begin after March 2019. It is now assuming that the UK secures a trade and regulation transition agreement with the rest of the EU to begin after March 2019, rather than leaving with no deal.
But that rate of growth for 2018 would still be the weakest of the 19 countries covered by the OECD with the sole exception of South Africa, which is projected to grow by 1 per cent next year. But that rate of growth for 2018 would still be the joint weakest of the 19 countries covered by the OECD with the sole exception of South Africa, which is projected to grow by only 1 per cent next year.
The OECD's projections are weaker than the forecasts of the Treasury's official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility, which projected last week that UK growth in 2018 would be 1.4 per cent and 1.3 per cent in 2019.The OECD's projections are weaker than the forecasts of the Treasury's official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility, which projected last week that UK growth in 2018 would be 1.4 per cent and 1.3 per cent in 2019.
The OBR's projections are based on the assumption of a relatively smooth Brexit, where trade is not seriously disrupted.The OBR's projections are based on the assumption of a relatively smooth Brexit, where trade is not seriously disrupted.
The OECD expects global growth to strengthen to 3.6 per cent this year, up from 3.1 per cent in 2016. It sees growth in 2018 hitting 3.7 per cent.The OECD expects global growth to strengthen to 3.6 per cent this year, up from 3.1 per cent in 2016. It sees growth in 2018 hitting 3.7 per cent.
Responding to the OECD's latest forecast, a UK Treasury spokesperson said: “There are over 3 million more people in work since 2010 and we are building an economy that is fit for the future. The Budget and our Industrial Strategy set out a balanced approach to reducing the deficit, supporting our vital public services, and investing to improve our productivity."Responding to the OECD's latest forecast, a UK Treasury spokesperson said: “There are over 3 million more people in work since 2010 and we are building an economy that is fit for the future. The Budget and our Industrial Strategy set out a balanced approach to reducing the deficit, supporting our vital public services, and investing to improve our productivity."
The OECD noted that the UK's outlook could improve if a less disruptive Brexit materialised.The OECD noted that the UK's outlook could improve if a less disruptive Brexit materialised.
"Prospects of maintaining the closest possible economic relationship with the European Union would lead to stronger-than-expected economic growth," it said."Prospects of maintaining the closest possible economic relationship with the European Union would lead to stronger-than-expected economic growth," it said.