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| Version 3 | Version 4 |
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| What do you think of the Brexit deal so far? We asked 10 experts | What do you think of the Brexit deal so far? We asked 10 experts |
| (25 days later) | |
| After the deal in Brussels, we posed two questions: 1. What kind of Brexit do you want to see in 2019? 2. Do you think events of the last week have made this more or less likely? | After the deal in Brussels, we posed two questions: 1. What kind of Brexit do you want to see in 2019? 2. Do you think events of the last week have made this more or less likely? |
| Sun 10 Dec 2017 06.04 GMT | Sun 10 Dec 2017 06.04 GMT |
| Last modified on Wed 14 Feb 2018 15.29 GMT | |
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| PETER MANDELSON | PETER MANDELSON |
| Former EU trade commissioner | Former EU trade commissioner |
| The best Brexit is one that does not happen because we can see already that it is going to be costly, complex and make us worse off. So I hope the public have second thoughts and at least conclude we should not leave the economic structures of the EU. | The best Brexit is one that does not happen because we can see already that it is going to be costly, complex and make us worse off. So I hope the public have second thoughts and at least conclude we should not leave the economic structures of the EU. |
| Theresa May has now accepted the principle of regulatory alignment with the EU and this is a step towards staying in the single market. The mooted alternative of a Canada-style trade agreement does not work for Britain as this would only eliminate tariffs on goods whereas we need regulatory alignment to permit free trade in services. We would be mugs to go for the Canada model, which Philip Hammond understands. | Theresa May has now accepted the principle of regulatory alignment with the EU and this is a step towards staying in the single market. The mooted alternative of a Canada-style trade agreement does not work for Britain as this would only eliminate tariffs on goods whereas we need regulatory alignment to permit free trade in services. We would be mugs to go for the Canada model, which Philip Hammond understands. |
| PAUL MASON | PAUL MASON |
| Leftwing writer and economist | Leftwing writer and economist |
| I want to see Britain stay in the single market and the customs union but to drive a hard bargain in terms of EU inward migration – which is what I think most people who voted Brexit were wound up about. Until the EU equalises minimum wages and welfare regimes, free movement is an excuse for cheap labour. | I want to see Britain stay in the single market and the customs union but to drive a hard bargain in terms of EU inward migration – which is what I think most people who voted Brexit were wound up about. Until the EU equalises minimum wages and welfare regimes, free movement is an excuse for cheap labour. |
| May’s deal shows how the Tories have weakened Britain in the negotiation process. By the time the next phase is completed, my hunch is we will know enough about Russian manipulation of the original vote to justify a second referendum, in which I will vote exactly as I did in 2016: remain and reform the EU. Sadly, by then, the EU will likely be more unreformable than it was in 2016. | May’s deal shows how the Tories have weakened Britain in the negotiation process. By the time the next phase is completed, my hunch is we will know enough about Russian manipulation of the original vote to justify a second referendum, in which I will vote exactly as I did in 2016: remain and reform the EU. Sadly, by then, the EU will likely be more unreformable than it was in 2016. |
| GINA MILLER | GINA MILLER |
| Businesswoman and prominent anti-Brexit campaigner | Businesswoman and prominent anti-Brexit campaigner |
| There must be a Brexit process that follows the letter of the law and the ruling in my supreme court case – irrespective of who is in power. This means a full and meaningful vote on all options at the end of the Brexit process resulting in an act of parliament. | There must be a Brexit process that follows the letter of the law and the ruling in my supreme court case – irrespective of who is in power. This means a full and meaningful vote on all options at the end of the Brexit process resulting in an act of parliament. |
| The text in the phase-one agreement this week has substantially changed Brexit: “In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union that, now or in the future, support north-south co-operation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 agreement.” In a no deal scenario, the UK will still have “full alignment”. | The text in the phase-one agreement this week has substantially changed Brexit: “In the absence of agreed solutions, the United Kingdom will maintain full alignment with those rules of the internal market and the customs union that, now or in the future, support north-south co-operation, the all-island economy and the protection of the 1998 agreement.” In a no deal scenario, the UK will still have “full alignment”. |
| RUTH LEA | RUTH LEA |
| Pro-Brexit economist | Pro-Brexit economist |
| A trade deal, outside the single market and the customs union, focusing on the continuation of tariff-free trade for goods and a bespoke arrangement based on “regulatory equivalence” for financial services as a special case. Maximum freedom to agree trade deals with third countries and decide and adjudicate our own regulations and immigration policy. If this can’t be agreed, then trade under WTO rules would be perfectly workable. | A trade deal, outside the single market and the customs union, focusing on the continuation of tariff-free trade for goods and a bespoke arrangement based on “regulatory equivalence” for financial services as a special case. Maximum freedom to agree trade deals with third countries and decide and adjudicate our own regulations and immigration policy. If this can’t be agreed, then trade under WTO rules would be perfectly workable. |
| I have reservations about the direction of travel. Regulatory “alignment” relating to Northern Ireland remains an ambiguity and the European court of justice will continue to play a role after Brexit. Moreover, the potential financial settlement of £45-55bn seems excessive. A UK-EU trade deal must not be at any cost. | I have reservations about the direction of travel. Regulatory “alignment” relating to Northern Ireland remains an ambiguity and the European court of justice will continue to play a role after Brexit. Moreover, the potential financial settlement of £45-55bn seems excessive. A UK-EU trade deal must not be at any cost. |
| ADAM MARSHALL | ADAM MARSHALL |
| Director, British Chambers of Commerce | Director, British Chambers of Commerce |
| Business communities across the UK are as divided as the general public on how the final deal should look, but united in their support for a sensible “standstill” transition period and the need to avoid a “no deal” scenario, which has just 2% backing among chamber members. Whatever the final framework, businesses want the freest possible trade with the EU in future. | Business communities across the UK are as divided as the general public on how the final deal should look, but united in their support for a sensible “standstill” transition period and the need to avoid a “no deal” scenario, which has just 2% backing among chamber members. Whatever the final framework, businesses want the freest possible trade with the EU in future. |
| Friday’s breakthrough gives business confidence that there is now momentum to progress the critical and practical questions around trade that remain unanswered, such as on customs procedures and future regulatory requirements. Investment and confidence for businesses in every region and nation of the UK depend on getting clarity sooner rather than later. | Friday’s breakthrough gives business confidence that there is now momentum to progress the critical and practical questions around trade that remain unanswered, such as on customs procedures and future regulatory requirements. Investment and confidence for businesses in every region and nation of the UK depend on getting clarity sooner rather than later. |
| AYESHA HAZARIKA | AYESHA HAZARIKA |
| Former Labour adviser | Former Labour adviser |
| We must prioritise jobs and the economy. I would like us to revisit the Norway model and seek EEA-Efta membership, which would give us access to the single market and certain EU programmes but without the extra burdens of being a full EU member. That way we could still benefit from remaining close to the EU but avoid further political integration. I’d like that option back on the table. | We must prioritise jobs and the economy. I would like us to revisit the Norway model and seek EEA-Efta membership, which would give us access to the single market and certain EU programmes but without the extra burdens of being a full EU member. That way we could still benefit from remaining close to the EU but avoid further political integration. I’d like that option back on the table. |
| Last week showed us that the Irish border could be the way for the customs union, and possibly the single market, to be continued. Regulatory alignment for the whole UK could be the fallback. May could still get a sensible deal in Brussels if she goes for a softer Brexit. | Last week showed us that the Irish border could be the way for the customs union, and possibly the single market, to be continued. Regulatory alignment for the whole UK could be the fallback. May could still get a sensible deal in Brussels if she goes for a softer Brexit. |
| HENRY NEWMAN | HENRY NEWMAN |
| Director of the Open Europe thinktank | Director of the Open Europe thinktank |
| We must agree a free trade deal that gives Britain the ability to vary rules and regulations without asking Brussels first. Leaving the single market and the customs union will come with costs, but if we don’t accept these we can’t grasp the opportunities of leaving or deliver the referendum result. | We must agree a free trade deal that gives Britain the ability to vary rules and regulations without asking Brussels first. Leaving the single market and the customs union will come with costs, but if we don’t accept these we can’t grasp the opportunities of leaving or deliver the referendum result. |
| Getting “sufficient progress” last week is an important milestone. The EU was wrong to phase talks in this way but now, finally, we can start talking trade and future relations. The EU has also accepted the government’s idea of a standstill transition. Lots has been agreed, including on contentious questions like money. I’m confident that Brexit should proceed smoothly. | Getting “sufficient progress” last week is an important milestone. The EU was wrong to phase talks in this way but now, finally, we can start talking trade and future relations. The EU has also accepted the government’s idea of a standstill transition. Lots has been agreed, including on contentious questions like money. I’m confident that Brexit should proceed smoothly. |
| EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the rest of the EU have the right to stay. Rights of their children and those of partners in existing “durable relationships” are also guaranteed. | EU citizens in the UK and UK citizens in the rest of the EU have the right to stay. Rights of their children and those of partners in existing “durable relationships” are also guaranteed. |
| UK courts will preside over enforcing rights over EU citizens in Britain but can refer unclear cases to the European court of justice for eight years after withdrawal. | UK courts will preside over enforcing rights over EU citizens in Britain but can refer unclear cases to the European court of justice for eight years after withdrawal. |
| The agreement promises to ensure there will be no hard border and to uphold the Belfast agreement. | The agreement promises to ensure there will be no hard border and to uphold the Belfast agreement. |
| It makes clear the whole of the UK, including Northern Ireland, will be leaving the customs union. | It makes clear the whole of the UK, including Northern Ireland, will be leaving the customs union. |
| It leaves unclear how an open border will be achieved but says in the absence of a later agreement, the UK will ensure “full alignment” with the rules of the customs union and single market that uphold the Good Friday agreement. | It leaves unclear how an open border will be achieved but says in the absence of a later agreement, the UK will ensure “full alignment” with the rules of the customs union and single market that uphold the Good Friday agreement. |
| However, the concession secured by the DUP is that no new regulatory barriers will be allowed between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK without the permission of Stormont in the interest of upholding the Good Friday agreement. | However, the concession secured by the DUP is that no new regulatory barriers will be allowed between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK without the permission of Stormont in the interest of upholding the Good Friday agreement. |
| There is no figure on how much the UK is expected to pay but the document sets out how the bill will be calculated – expected to be between £35bn and £39bn. | There is no figure on how much the UK is expected to pay but the document sets out how the bill will be calculated – expected to be between £35bn and £39bn. |
| The UK agrees to continue to pay into the EU budget as normal in 2019 and 2020. | The UK agrees to continue to pay into the EU budget as normal in 2019 and 2020. |
| It also agrees to pay its liabilities such as pension contributions. | It also agrees to pay its liabilities such as pension contributions. |
| The two sides agreed there would be need for cooperation on nuclear regulation and police and security issues. | The two sides agreed there would be need for cooperation on nuclear regulation and police and security issues. |
| There was an agreement to ensure continued availability of products on the market before withdrawal and to minimise disruption for businesses and consumers. | There was an agreement to ensure continued availability of products on the market before withdrawal and to minimise disruption for businesses and consumers. |
| GISELA STUART | GISELA STUART |
| Former Labour MP and a leading member of the Brexit campaign | Former Labour MP and a leading member of the Brexit campaign |
| We need a Brexit that stops the supremacy of the European court of justice, means the UK leaves the single market and the customs union, and strengthens both the UK and the European Union. We must end automatic payments to the EU. If we do not do all of these things, we will not have left the EU. | We need a Brexit that stops the supremacy of the European court of justice, means the UK leaves the single market and the customs union, and strengthens both the UK and the European Union. We must end automatic payments to the EU. If we do not do all of these things, we will not have left the EU. |
| This deal was a classic European Union deal. If you can’t find a way to a solution in one big step, you do it in smaller steps, by stages. The EU sees Theresa May as a weak prime minister but realises she can still get an agreement at home. It also showed how much the EU wants a deal too. | This deal was a classic European Union deal. If you can’t find a way to a solution in one big step, you do it in smaller steps, by stages. The EU sees Theresa May as a weak prime minister but realises she can still get an agreement at home. It also showed how much the EU wants a deal too. |
| SUZANNE EVANS | SUZANNE EVANS |
| Former Ukip deputy chairwoman | Former Ukip deputy chairwoman |
| Those of us campaigning for Leave sought a Brexit that allowed us to “take back control” of our laws, our money, and our borders. We campaigned to leave the customs union and the single market; set our own migration policy; remove ourselves from the jurisdiction of the European courts; and spend money saved on our own priorities such as the NHS, schools and policing. These, if you like, were Vote Leave’s “red lines”, and they are still mine. | Those of us campaigning for Leave sought a Brexit that allowed us to “take back control” of our laws, our money, and our borders. We campaigned to leave the customs union and the single market; set our own migration policy; remove ourselves from the jurisdiction of the European courts; and spend money saved on our own priorities such as the NHS, schools and policing. These, if you like, were Vote Leave’s “red lines”, and they are still mine. |
| I’m not hopeful. No time limit on the “transition” period. Ten more years’ subservience to the European court of justice. Another 15 months enticing EU citizens to Britain to claim benefits. | I’m not hopeful. No time limit on the “transition” period. Ten more years’ subservience to the European court of justice. Another 15 months enticing EU citizens to Britain to claim benefits. |
| FRANCES COPPOLA | FRANCES COPPOLA |
| Writer and blogger on economics | Writer and blogger on economics |
| I want us to remain as closely aligned with the EU as possible. My preference would be for membership of Efta/EEA. I am also concerned about the unreality of UK expectations regarding free movement of people. If we want free trade in services, we will have to have freedom of movement – and not just with the EU: India wants freedom of movement too. | I want us to remain as closely aligned with the EU as possible. My preference would be for membership of Efta/EEA. I am also concerned about the unreality of UK expectations regarding free movement of people. If we want free trade in services, we will have to have freedom of movement – and not just with the EU: India wants freedom of movement too. |
| Events of the last week show that UK negotiators have much less room for manoeuvre than they thought. They have conceded to the EU on all three of the EU’s upfront demands. They will inevitably concede to the EU on everything else as well. The UK has never had the upper hand in these negotiations and never will. | Events of the last week show that UK negotiators have much less room for manoeuvre than they thought. They have conceded to the EU on all three of the EU’s upfront demands. They will inevitably concede to the EU on everything else as well. The UK has never had the upper hand in these negotiations and never will. |
| Inside the EU, both Ireland and Northern Ireland are part of the single market and customs union so share the same regulations and standards, allowing a soft or invisible border between the two. | Inside the EU, both Ireland and Northern Ireland are part of the single market and customs union so share the same regulations and standards, allowing a soft or invisible border between the two. |
| Britain’s exit from the EU – taking Northern Ireland with it – risks a return to a hard or policed border. The only way to avoid this post-Brexit is for regulations on both sides to remain more or less the same in key areas including food, animal welfare, medicines and product safety. | Britain’s exit from the EU – taking Northern Ireland with it – risks a return to a hard or policed border. The only way to avoid this post-Brexit is for regulations on both sides to remain more or less the same in key areas including food, animal welfare, medicines and product safety. |
| Early drafts of the agreement Britain hoped to get signed off on Monday said there would be “no divergence” from EU rules that “support north-south cooperation”, later changed to “continued alignment” in a formulation that appeared to allow for subtle divergences. | Early drafts of the agreement Britain hoped to get signed off on Monday said there would be “no divergence” from EU rules that “support north-south cooperation”, later changed to “continued alignment” in a formulation that appeared to allow for subtle divergences. |
| But it raised new questions about who would oversee it and how disputes might be resolved. It was also clearly still a step too far for the DUP. | But it raised new questions about who would oversee it and how disputes might be resolved. It was also clearly still a step too far for the DUP. |
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