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Alabama Senate Race Between Roy Moore and Doug Jones Ends With More Controversy Alabama Senate Race Between Roy Moore and Doug Jones Ends With More Controversy
(about 2 hours later)
Polls are open in the special Senate election to fill the seat left vacant when President Trump appointed Jeff Sessions as attorney general. Alabama voters go to the polls Tuesday to decide between Roy S. Moore, a Republican, and Doug Jones, a Democrat, in a special Senate election destined to be remembered as a strange and ugly campaign carrying immense political implications.
The candidacy of Roy S. Moore, the Republican nominee, was thrown into doubt over claims of sexual misconduct with teenage girls. Mr. Moore’s path to victory in a deeply conservative state has been thrown into doubt over claims of sexual misconduct with teenage girls. If Mr. Jones wins, filling the seat left vacant when President Trump appointed Jeff Sessions as attorney general, Republicans would see their Senate advantage dwindle to a single seat, putting their majority in play next year.
If Doug Jones, the Democratic challenger, wins, Republicans would see their Senate advantage dwindle to a single seat. But should Mr. Moore survive, it would illustrate the enduring limitations of Democrats in the South and suggest that the tug of partisanship is a forbiddingly powerful force.
Polls fully close in the state at 8 p.m. Eastern Time. Here’s the latest:
• President Trump, who after initial reluctance following the allegations against Mr. Moore offered a full-throated endorsement, tweeted his support: “Roy Moore will always vote with us.”
• Mr. Jones cast his ballot early. He will need strong turnout from black voters, urban voters and suburban white voters who might normally vote Republican.
• Polls fully close in the state at 8 p.m. Eastern Time. Check back for live results then.
• Sign up for the Morning Briefing for politics news and a daily look at what you need to know to begin your day.
When Mr. Moore’s campaign held its final rally in Midland City late Monday, it was Kayla Moore, the candidate’s wife, who grabbed the headlines with her attempt to inoculate her husband from charges of bigotry that have dogged him. But her comments likely raised more eyebrows than praises:When Mr. Moore’s campaign held its final rally in Midland City late Monday, it was Kayla Moore, the candidate’s wife, who grabbed the headlines with her attempt to inoculate her husband from charges of bigotry that have dogged him. But her comments likely raised more eyebrows than praises:
Read more on the story here, and read how the sexual misconduct scandal unfolded.
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Wearing a broad smile and pronouncing himself “exuberant,” Mr. Jones cast a ballot for himself on Tuesday morning and leveled a final round of criticism at his Republican opponent.Wearing a broad smile and pronouncing himself “exuberant,” Mr. Jones cast a ballot for himself on Tuesday morning and leveled a final round of criticism at his Republican opponent.
Accompanied by his wife, Louise, and his sons, Mr. Jones strolled into the Brookwood Baptist Church in Mountain Brook, an upscale Birmingham suburb, picking up his ballot from a line of tables backed by a cross and a Christmas tree. Alluding to the state’s restrictive voter-identification law, he joked to his wife: “Louise, got your I. D.?”Accompanied by his wife, Louise, and his sons, Mr. Jones strolled into the Brookwood Baptist Church in Mountain Brook, an upscale Birmingham suburb, picking up his ballot from a line of tables backed by a cross and a Christmas tree. Alluding to the state’s restrictive voter-identification law, he joked to his wife: “Louise, got your I. D.?”
Mr. Jones was upbeat.Mr. Jones was upbeat.
“This is an important time in Alabama’s history, and we feel very confident of where we are and how it’s going to turn out,” Mr. Jones said.“This is an important time in Alabama’s history, and we feel very confident of where we are and how it’s going to turn out,” Mr. Jones said.
Mr. Jones predicted black turnout would be strong and laced into Mr. Moore for comments he has made criticizing the constitutional amendments, enacted after the Civil War, that abolished slavery and gave broader rights to African-Americans.Mr. Jones predicted black turnout would be strong and laced into Mr. Moore for comments he has made criticizing the constitutional amendments, enacted after the Civil War, that abolished slavery and gave broader rights to African-Americans.
“I think they’ve seen, within Doug Jones, a partner for a long time,” Mr. Jones said of the black community. “And they sure don’t see a partner in Roy Moore.”“I think they’ve seen, within Doug Jones, a partner for a long time,” Mr. Jones said of the black community. “And they sure don’t see a partner in Roy Moore.”
Evan Raymond, an accountant who said he supports candidates in both parties, cast a ballot for Mr. Jones.Evan Raymond, an accountant who said he supports candidates in both parties, cast a ballot for Mr. Jones.
“I don’t know how anybody can vote for Roy Moore, but everybody has their own beliefs,” Mr. Raymond said. He added that he would not have voted for Mr. Moore, even absent the sex-abuse allegations, and referenced Mr. Moore’s repeated ejections from judicial office: “You’re in a position to uphold the law, you can’t make your own.”“I don’t know how anybody can vote for Roy Moore, but everybody has their own beliefs,” Mr. Raymond said. He added that he would not have voted for Mr. Moore, even absent the sex-abuse allegations, and referenced Mr. Moore’s repeated ejections from judicial office: “You’re in a position to uphold the law, you can’t make your own.”
Alexander Burns in Mountain Brook, Ala. ____
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It was 9 a.m. Tuesday, and Brandy Weston, 34, and her husband Greg Weston, 45, had already gotten their voting out of the way, and were busy loading boxes of fruit onto the back of their pickup outside of their produce stand in this little town a few miles from Mr. Moore’s polling place.It was 9 a.m. Tuesday, and Brandy Weston, 34, and her husband Greg Weston, 45, had already gotten their voting out of the way, and were busy loading boxes of fruit onto the back of their pickup outside of their produce stand in this little town a few miles from Mr. Moore’s polling place.
A big Roy Moore sign featured prominently at the entrance to the tumbledown trailer park across the two-lane highway from the produce stand. The Westons, who also grow tomatoes at their nearby farm, both voted for Mr. Moore.A big Roy Moore sign featured prominently at the entrance to the tumbledown trailer park across the two-lane highway from the produce stand. The Westons, who also grow tomatoes at their nearby farm, both voted for Mr. Moore.
Mr. Weston said it seemed like something was not right with the country these days. He said it seemed like nobody was looking out for small farmers like him. “I just feel like they’re trying to put the little man out of business,” he said. And he likes the hard line on immigration that Mr. Trump espouses, and that he figured Mr. Moore would support. He said he works with Latino immigrants and knows they make good money. And yet he sees them with shopping carts full of food at the grocery store. He thinks they buy them with government aid.Mr. Weston said it seemed like something was not right with the country these days. He said it seemed like nobody was looking out for small farmers like him. “I just feel like they’re trying to put the little man out of business,” he said. And he likes the hard line on immigration that Mr. Trump espouses, and that he figured Mr. Moore would support. He said he works with Latino immigrants and knows they make good money. And yet he sees them with shopping carts full of food at the grocery store. He thinks they buy them with government aid.
As for the allegations against Mr. Moore, he asked, why were they coming up now? And anyway, he said, it was a different time. Teenagers went with older men around here, he said. “It wasn’t nothing back then.”As for the allegations against Mr. Moore, he asked, why were they coming up now? And anyway, he said, it was a different time. Teenagers went with older men around here, he said. “It wasn’t nothing back then.”
Mrs. Weston said she generally disagreed with Mr. Jones’s politics, and said she was disappointed that Mr. Jones used the allegations to attack Mr. Moore.Mrs. Weston said she generally disagreed with Mr. Jones’s politics, and said she was disappointed that Mr. Jones used the allegations to attack Mr. Moore.
“I don’t know,” she said. “Honestly, I even debated about going to vote this morning.”“I don’t know,” she said. “Honestly, I even debated about going to vote this morning.”
But she did, and she made her choice on the theory that if the allegations were somehow proven, Alabama’s Republican governor could put another, less controversial Republican in the Senate seat for the time being.But she did, and she made her choice on the theory that if the allegations were somehow proven, Alabama’s Republican governor could put another, less controversial Republican in the Senate seat for the time being.
“I’m tired of hearing about it,” Mrs. Weston said. “Whatever it’s going to be, it’s going to be, you know?”“I’m tired of hearing about it,” Mrs. Weston said. “Whatever it’s going to be, it’s going to be, you know?”
Richard Fausset in Asheville, Ala. ____
Mr. Moore insists that he did not molest teenage girls or make romantic advances toward far younger women when he was an adult. But at a busy polling station in southeast Alabama, one woman after another said she was bothered by Mr. Moore and the allegations against him.Mr. Moore insists that he did not molest teenage girls or make romantic advances toward far younger women when he was an adult. But at a busy polling station in southeast Alabama, one woman after another said she was bothered by Mr. Moore and the allegations against him.
Leslie McLeod, 27, said she cast her ballot for “Democrat Doug,” a reference to Doug Jones, the Democratic nominee.Leslie McLeod, 27, said she cast her ballot for “Democrat Doug,” a reference to Doug Jones, the Democratic nominee.
“The other one is a rapist, and he said all the times were good was when there was slavery,” she said, recalling Mr. Moore’s remarks that the nation was last great in the era of slavery.“The other one is a rapist, and he said all the times were good was when there was slavery,” she said, recalling Mr. Moore’s remarks that the nation was last great in the era of slavery.
Mr. Moore, who has not been charged with any crimes related to the misconduct allegations, had done nothing to earn her vote, she said.Mr. Moore, who has not been charged with any crimes related to the misconduct allegations, had done nothing to earn her vote, she said.
Tanya Embry, 36, also cited deep concerns about Mr. Moore’s behaviorTanya Embry, 36, also cited deep concerns about Mr. Moore’s behavior
“I know this is typically a Republican state, but I can’t get behind somebody who is being accused of things like what he’s being accused of,” she said.“I know this is typically a Republican state, but I can’t get behind somebody who is being accused of things like what he’s being accused of,” she said.
Although she championed Mr. Jones in a brief interview outside the Ozark Civic Center, she said she had spoken to other women who were more reluctant to support a Democratic candidate. As recently as Monday, she said, one woman had told her that “Doug Jones is throwing Roy Moore under the bus.”Although she championed Mr. Jones in a brief interview outside the Ozark Civic Center, she said she had spoken to other women who were more reluctant to support a Democratic candidate. As recently as Monday, she said, one woman had told her that “Doug Jones is throwing Roy Moore under the bus.”
She would not venture a prediction for the outcome of the race. But she had no hesitation to forecast the implications of a Moore victory on Tuesday night.She would not venture a prediction for the outcome of the race. But she had no hesitation to forecast the implications of a Moore victory on Tuesday night.
“I feel like it’s going to set us back,” she said. “Do you want that kind of stigma representing Alabama? No. I don’t, at least.“I feel like it’s going to set us back,” she said. “Do you want that kind of stigma representing Alabama? No. I don’t, at least.
Alan Blinder in Ozark, Ala. ____
There may be no more significant question looming over the race than how much of the electorate will be African-American. If black Alabamians make up more than 25 percent of voters on Tuesday, Mr. Jones will have a strong chance to score an upset. African-American turnout typically falls in nonpresidential election years, and voting rights advocates say that Alabama’s voter ID law and partisan administration of voting rules have the potential to suppress the black vote. But if black Alabamians make up more than 25 percent of voters on Tuesday, Mr. Jones will have a strong chance to score an upset.
African-American turnout typically falls in nonpresidential election years, and voting rights advocates say that Alabama’s voter ID law and partisan administration of voting rules have the potential to suppress the black vote. Many of them live in cities, like Birmingham and Montgomery. In addition, several largely poor counties that are predominantly African-American, like Dallas, Lowndes, Marengo and Perry, stretch across the middle of the state.
But Democrats have poured millions of dollars into a turnout drive aimed at black voters, over 90 percent of whom are expected to support Mr. Jones. Many of Alabama’s black voters live in the state’s cities, particularly Birmingham and Montgomery. In addition, the rural Black Belt (called that for its soil) that stretches across the middle of the state is home to largely poor counties that are predominantly African-American. These counties include Dallas, Lowndes, Marengo and Perry. It is hard to overstate the disdain many voters in Alabama’s cities and suburbs harbor toward Mr. Moore. Yet it is not enough for Mr. Jones to just win over those college-educated voters who most loathe Mr. Moore. The Democrat also has to persuade Republicans who are more ambivalent about the race.
For Mr. Jones to have a chance to win, he will need to drive turnout in this region and also maximize his vote percentages in many of these jurisdictions to over 70 percent. If Mr. Jones is to have a chance at winning, he must run up the margin against Mr. Moore in Jefferson County, which includes Birmingham and is the state’s most populous, and convincingly win the state’s next-largest counties, Mobile and Madison, which are also filled with educated and affluent voters.
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If energizing African-Americans is key for Mr. Jones, it is equally crucial for Mr. Moore to get a strong turnout from his longtime base of rural whites. If these voters decide to stay home because of the sexual misconduct accusations — these conservatives are highly unlikely to cross party lines — it would greatly complicate the Republican’s electoral math.If energizing African-Americans is key for Mr. Jones, it is equally crucial for Mr. Moore to get a strong turnout from his longtime base of rural whites. If these voters decide to stay home because of the sexual misconduct accusations — these conservatives are highly unlikely to cross party lines — it would greatly complicate the Republican’s electoral math.
These small-population counties, stretching across the state’s northern tier and just above the Gulf Coast, are likely to report early. Mr. Moore’s margins in them will go a long way toward indicating whether he can withstand Mr. Jones’s expected success, reported later in the night, in Alabama’s cities.These small-population counties, stretching across the state’s northern tier and just above the Gulf Coast, are likely to report early. Mr. Moore’s margins in them will go a long way toward indicating whether he can withstand Mr. Jones’s expected success, reported later in the night, in Alabama’s cities.
If Mr. Moore is hitting the sort of marks he reached in his Republican runoff victory in September, over 60 percent in a number of rural counties, he will most likely claim victory.If Mr. Moore is hitting the sort of marks he reached in his Republican runoff victory in September, over 60 percent in a number of rural counties, he will most likely claim victory.
It is hard to overstate the disdain many voters in Alabama’s cities and suburbs harbor toward Mr. Moore. Asked whom she was supporting, one voter in downtown Birmingham, who lives in nearby Homewood, volunteered on Monday that she would rather throw up in the street than cast a ballot for him. ____
Yet it is not enough for Mr. Jones to just win over those college-educated voters who most loathe Mr. Moore. The Democrat also has to persuade Republicans who are more ambivalent about the race. In 2012, when Mr. Moore returned to the state court after winning by only a 4-point margin statewide, he lost Jefferson County, which includes Birmingham and is the state’s most populous, by 26 points. Mr. Jones will have to exceed that margin in what is his native county if he is to have a chance at winning.
And he also must convincingly win in the state’s next-largest counties, Mobile and Madison, which are also filled with educated and affluent voters. Counties adjacent to Birmingham (Shelby County) and Mobile (Baldwin County) could also prove consequential. These are traditionally Republican jurisdictions, heavily white and filled with suburbanites.
But they are also full of middle-class voters who may be uneasy with the allegations against Mr. Moore and the defiantly retrograde political persona he has created. Mr. Jones can lose in such places and still win the race, but he has to narrow the margin and lose by less than a Democrat usually does there.
It is quite difficult for an Alabama Democrat to capture over 50 percent of the vote. But Mr. Jones may not have to capture a majority to win Tuesday. Senator Richard C. Shelby, a Republican and the state’s longest-serving lawmaker, used a national television interview Sunday to remind Alabamians that he had written in the name of another Republican rather than supporting Mr. Moore. His example could spur others in the party to do the same.It is quite difficult for an Alabama Democrat to capture over 50 percent of the vote. But Mr. Jones may not have to capture a majority to win Tuesday. Senator Richard C. Shelby, a Republican and the state’s longest-serving lawmaker, used a national television interview Sunday to remind Alabamians that he had written in the name of another Republican rather than supporting Mr. Moore. His example could spur others in the party to do the same.
And there are two ready options. Lee Busby, a Republican and a retired Marine colonel from Tuscaloosa, has announced a write-in bid. And a number of votes will almost certainly go to someone widely considered the most important man in the state, the University of Alabama football coach Nick Saban.And there are two ready options. Lee Busby, a Republican and a retired Marine colonel from Tuscaloosa, has announced a write-in bid. And a number of votes will almost certainly go to someone widely considered the most important man in the state, the University of Alabama football coach Nick Saban.
The more Republicans or independents who write in the name of a third candidate, the lower the threshold Mr. Jones needs to reach. Depending on the number of write-ins, he could potentially win even if he only captures 48 percent of the vote.The more Republicans or independents who write in the name of a third candidate, the lower the threshold Mr. Jones needs to reach. Depending on the number of write-ins, he could potentially win even if he only captures 48 percent of the vote.