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| UK employment total drops, but pay growth picks up - business live | UK employment total drops, but pay growth picks up - business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Today’s report also shows that the unemployment rate for women has hit a record low, at just 4.1%. | |
| In contrast, 70.8% of women aged from 16 to 64 were in work, up from 69.8% for a year earlier. There has been an increase in women working full-time and part-time (unlike men, where the part-time cohort shrank in the last quarter). | |
| The Office for National Statistics says: | |
| The increase in the employment rate for women over the last few years has been partly due to ongoing changes to the State Pension age for women, resulting in fewer women retiring between the ages of 60 and 65. | |
| Ian Brinkley, acting chief economist at the CIPD, the professional body for HR and people development, also suspects that Britain’s labour market is stalling. | |
| He says: | |
| “These figures suggest the UK’s employment engine has begun to splutter. The fall in the total number of people in work, down 0.2%, is primarily driven by a fall in full-time self-employment. | |
| Coupled with a fall in unemployment, this appears to point towards constraints in the overall supply of labour rather than a decline in demand. There is a strong possibility that the continued expansion of the labour market has hit its ceiling. In response, employers would be wise to invest more in their existing workforce, especially in light of recent declines in the number of apprenticeships. | |
| Despite the drop in employment, the number of unfilled positions in the UK has hit a record high. | Despite the drop in employment, the number of unfilled positions in the UK has hit a record high. |
| There were 798,000 job vacancies in the September-to-November quarter, which is the most since comparable records began in 2001, as this chart shows: | There were 798,000 job vacancies in the September-to-November quarter, which is the most since comparable records began in 2001, as this chart shows: |
| So why are firms struggling to fill these vacancies? | So why are firms struggling to fill these vacancies? |
| Dr John Philpott, Director of The Jobs Economist, says the supply of skilled labour is tailing off. | Dr John Philpott, Director of The Jobs Economist, says the supply of skilled labour is tailing off. |
| The rapid growth in labour supply of recent years has seemingly gone into the reverse. The main reasons for this are a sudden surge in student numbers and a fall in the number of citizens of the central and eastern European countries (the A8) that joined the EU in 2004. | The rapid growth in labour supply of recent years has seemingly gone into the reverse. The main reasons for this are a sudden surge in student numbers and a fall in the number of citizens of the central and eastern European countries (the A8) that joined the EU in 2004. |
| In principle, this drop in available labour should be good news for unemployed jobseekers. | In principle, this drop in available labour should be good news for unemployed jobseekers. |
| The steady unemployment rate may therefore indicate a lack of employability on the part of the remaining pool of unemployed. | The steady unemployment rate may therefore indicate a lack of employability on the part of the remaining pool of unemployed. |
| The CBI, which represents British bosses, confirms that UK companies are still trying to hire staff. Their head of employment, Matthew Percival, says: | The CBI, which represents British bosses, confirms that UK companies are still trying to hire staff. Their head of employment, Matthew Percival, says: |
| “The number of people in employment has fallen, but the unemployment rate remains low and there are still opportunities for job seekers with vacancies at a record high. | “The number of people in employment has fallen, but the unemployment rate remains low and there are still opportunities for job seekers with vacancies at a record high. |
| Today’s jobs reports shows that the number of public sector workers rose by 19,000 between June and September, to 5.49 milllion. | Today’s jobs reports shows that the number of public sector workers rose by 19,000 between June and September, to 5.49 milllion. |
| The ONS says: | The ONS says: |
| The largest contributor to these quarterly and annual increases in public sector employment was the National Health Service. | The largest contributor to these quarterly and annual increases in public sector employment was the National Health Service. |
| But, the number of private sector workers dropped by 75,000 between June and September, to 26.59 million. | But, the number of private sector workers dropped by 75,000 between June and September, to 26.59 million. |
| Britain’s cost of living squeeze could end early next year, reckons Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown: | Britain’s cost of living squeeze could end early next year, reckons Ben Brettell, senior economist at Hargreaves Lansdown: |
| The pay squeeze continues for now, but with wages growing a little more strongly and inflation set to fall back in the new year, this looks like it’ll come to an end in the next few months. | The pay squeeze continues for now, but with wages growing a little more strongly and inflation set to fall back in the new year, this looks like it’ll come to an end in the next few months. |
| We should remember, however, that the only true driver of real pay growth and rising living standards is productivity growth. This is something the UK has struggled with since the financial crisis, and as yet nobody seems to have solved the puzzle. | We should remember, however, that the only true driver of real pay growth and rising living standards is productivity growth. This is something the UK has struggled with since the financial crisis, and as yet nobody seems to have solved the puzzle. |
| TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady doesn’t see any festive cheer in today’s labour market report. | TUC General Secretary Frances O’Grady doesn’t see any festive cheer in today’s labour market report. |
| She says: | She says: |
| “2017 has been a bleak year for living standards. | “2017 has been a bleak year for living standards. |
| “Real wages have now fallen for the last eight months in a row. And working people will be worse off this Christmas than they were a decade ago. | “Real wages have now fallen for the last eight months in a row. And working people will be worse off this Christmas than they were a decade ago. |
| “Boosting pay packets should be a priority for the government - not a side issue.” | “Boosting pay packets should be a priority for the government - not a side issue.” |
| The Minister for Employment, Damian Hinds, claims that the UK labour market is still strong - even though real wages are still falling. | The Minister for Employment, Damian Hinds, claims that the UK labour market is still strong - even though real wages are still falling. |
| Hinds says: | Hinds says: |
| “We’re ending the year on a strong note with figures showing the unemployment rate has fallen every month in 2017, and is now at the lowest it’s been in over 40 years. | “We’re ending the year on a strong note with figures showing the unemployment rate has fallen every month in 2017, and is now at the lowest it’s been in over 40 years. |
| “Employment is at a near-record high, and there are over 3 million more people in work now compared to 2010 – that’s more than the population of Greater Manchester. Universal Credit is helping people get into work quicker, and ensuring they get more money in their pockets for every hour they work. | “Employment is at a near-record high, and there are over 3 million more people in work now compared to 2010 – that’s more than the population of Greater Manchester. Universal Credit is helping people get into work quicker, and ensuring they get more money in their pockets for every hour they work. |
| “Universal Credit supports both the unemployed and the low paid, as people don’t have to end their benefit claim when they find a job. This is especially important at this time of year, when many people take on temporary seasonal work.” | “Universal Credit supports both the unemployed and the low paid, as people don’t have to end their benefit claim when they find a job. This is especially important at this time of year, when many people take on temporary seasonal work.” |
| Geraint Johnes, Research Director at the Work Foundation and Professor of Economics at Lancaster University Management School, says today’s jobs report is packed with concerns: | Geraint Johnes, Research Director at the Work Foundation and Professor of Economics at Lancaster University Management School, says today’s jobs report is packed with concerns: |
| The latest labour force statistics provide further evidence that the labour market has peaked and is now starting to turn down. Employment fell by some 56000 over the quarter to October. While there was a small increase in the number of full-time employees, there was a large fall (some 65000) in the number of full-time self-employed workers. Unemployment, meanwhile, continued to fall, and now stands at 4.3%. The simultaneous fall in employment and unemployment is possible because there has been a large increase (115000 over the quarter) in the number of economically inactive. | The latest labour force statistics provide further evidence that the labour market has peaked and is now starting to turn down. Employment fell by some 56000 over the quarter to October. While there was a small increase in the number of full-time employees, there was a large fall (some 65000) in the number of full-time self-employed workers. Unemployment, meanwhile, continued to fall, and now stands at 4.3%. The simultaneous fall in employment and unemployment is possible because there has been a large increase (115000 over the quarter) in the number of economically inactive. |
| “There have been large falls in employment in the distribution sector (38000) and in information and communication (37000). Meanwhile numbers employed in professional, scientific and technical fields and in administration and support have increased. | “There have been large falls in employment in the distribution sector (38000) and in information and communication (37000). Meanwhile numbers employed in professional, scientific and technical fields and in administration and support have increased. |
| “The three-month average measure of total weekly pay has increased to 2.5% (from 2.3% at the time of the last release). This is encouraging, but should be viewed alongside two further observations. First, wage growth remains well below the rate of growth of prices, so real wages continue to fall. Secondly, the single-month figure, while less reliable, is more modest – it has fallen to 2.3% from 2.8% last time around. | “The three-month average measure of total weekly pay has increased to 2.5% (from 2.3% at the time of the last release). This is encouraging, but should be viewed alongside two further observations. First, wage growth remains well below the rate of growth of prices, so real wages continue to fall. Secondly, the single-month figure, while less reliable, is more modest – it has fallen to 2.3% from 2.8% last time around. |
| So the growth in the three-month measure is largely due to a spike in September that has not fed through into October. Low, and stagnant, wages remain a problem.” | So the growth in the three-month measure is largely due to a spike in September that has not fed through into October. Low, and stagnant, wages remain a problem.” |
| Jeremy Cook of foreign exchange firm World First isn’t impressed by today’s jobs report | Jeremy Cook of foreign exchange firm World First isn’t impressed by today’s jobs report |
| Shorter UK jobs numbers: those with jobs are getting poorer at a slightly slower rate than those without, and now there are 56,000 more of the latter | Shorter UK jobs numbers: those with jobs are getting poorer at a slightly slower rate than those without, and now there are 56,000 more of the latter |
| Ed Conway of Sky News fears that the jobs market may be stalling... | Ed Conway of Sky News fears that the jobs market may be stalling... |
| Employment rate has started to stall, on basis of recent jobs figs. Hardly a disaster, but may suggest UK labour market finally turning pic.twitter.com/36l7vCEbq8 | Employment rate has started to stall, on basis of recent jobs figs. Hardly a disaster, but may suggest UK labour market finally turning pic.twitter.com/36l7vCEbq8 |
| He also points out that real wages have now been falling since the spring | He also points out that real wages have now been falling since the spring |
| Real wages across UK still shrinking, mainly thanks to higher inflation. Here's the latest data from the @ONS pic.twitter.com/tmdUwEC99W | Real wages across UK still shrinking, mainly thanks to higher inflation. Here's the latest data from the @ONS pic.twitter.com/tmdUwEC99W |
| Duncan Weldon of the Resolution Group is disappointed that wages aren’t rising faster, given Britain’s unemployment rate is a 42-year low. | Duncan Weldon of the Resolution Group is disappointed that wages aren’t rising faster, given Britain’s unemployment rate is a 42-year low. |
| The UK Philips Curve. Still broken. | The UK Philips Curve. Still broken. |
| Jobs engine looks to be spluttering. | Jobs engine looks to be spluttering. |
| Wages a touch healthier - but well below inflation. | Wages a touch healthier - but well below inflation. |
| Scoring this as “not good”. | Scoring this as “not good”. |