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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/dec/18/pm-begins-long-march-from-camp-tantrum-as-he-sells-economic-revolution
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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| PM begins long march from Camp Tantrum as he sells economic revolution | PM begins long march from Camp Tantrum as he sells economic revolution |
| (about 1 month later) | |
| Right now, if you watch politics closely, you won’t need me to tell you about the story the Turnbull government wants to tell you in 2018. It will be about as obvious to you as the nose on your face. | Right now, if you watch politics closely, you won’t need me to tell you about the story the Turnbull government wants to tell you in 2018. It will be about as obvious to you as the nose on your face. |
| But assuming the fatigue of the year might have finally got to you, let’s take a minute to spell it out. After the omnishambles of 2017, the government wants 2018 to be about fresh starts and improving economic fortunes (due to its dazzling managerial wizardry of course) – sweetened with the prospect of tax cuts. | But assuming the fatigue of the year might have finally got to you, let’s take a minute to spell it out. After the omnishambles of 2017, the government wants 2018 to be about fresh starts and improving economic fortunes (due to its dazzling managerial wizardry of course) – sweetened with the prospect of tax cuts. |
| If we consider the regular Treasury forecasts a necessary input to that story, the latest midyear economic outlook, released on Monday, paints the following picture. | If we consider the regular Treasury forecasts a necessary input to that story, the latest midyear economic outlook, released on Monday, paints the following picture. |
| The global economy is rebounding after the prolonged economic downturn triggered by the most significant financial crisis to hit the world since the great depression. | The global economy is rebounding after the prolonged economic downturn triggered by the most significant financial crisis to hit the world since the great depression. |
| Assuming no conflagration on the Korean peninsula and assuming conditions in China remain benign, 2018 is looking like the best year in a decade and the best since the onset of the crisis. | Assuming no conflagration on the Korean peninsula and assuming conditions in China remain benign, 2018 is looking like the best year in a decade and the best since the onset of the crisis. |
| Back at home, let’s persist with the good news. Labour market conditions are picking up, with unemployment at the lowest rate in over four years and participation up. The outlook for business investment is also positive. | Back at home, let’s persist with the good news. Labour market conditions are picking up, with unemployment at the lowest rate in over four years and participation up. The outlook for business investment is also positive. |
| But elsewhere the picture is mixed. | But elsewhere the picture is mixed. |
| Economic growth is off a touch, wages growth remains stagnant and growth in household consumption is modest. | Economic growth is off a touch, wages growth remains stagnant and growth in household consumption is modest. |
| If that all sounds meh, it is. It’s also a cycle that becomes self-fulfilling. Low wages growth means household consumption drops and, while spending less might be prudent at the household level, it’s not good for the economy. | If that all sounds meh, it is. It’s also a cycle that becomes self-fulfilling. Low wages growth means household consumption drops and, while spending less might be prudent at the household level, it’s not good for the economy. |
| Let’s go finally to the national balance sheet. The budget is shuffling back towards surplus but, on current projections, despite tax hikes and spending cuts, we don’t get there until 2020-21. The best you can say about government debt is it is growing more slowly. | Let’s go finally to the national balance sheet. The budget is shuffling back towards surplus but, on current projections, despite tax hikes and spending cuts, we don’t get there until 2020-21. The best you can say about government debt is it is growing more slowly. |
| So while there are some positive signs, we are a distance here from what Paul Keating once described as a beautiful set of numbers. | So while there are some positive signs, we are a distance here from what Paul Keating once described as a beautiful set of numbers. |
| But tracking back to where we started – with what the government wants to talk about when we all stagger back from the beach – even if the outlook is mixed, talking about the economy and tax cuts is helpful for a few reasons. | But tracking back to where we started – with what the government wants to talk about when we all stagger back from the beach – even if the outlook is mixed, talking about the economy and tax cuts is helpful for a few reasons. |
| The first reason is the Coalition believes it can begin to fight back politically if that’s where the daily conversation happens. | The first reason is the Coalition believes it can begin to fight back politically if that’s where the daily conversation happens. |
| The second involves plotting the long march back from Camp Tantrum. Let’s remember what has happened this year. This government has struggled to agree on major policies, struggled to maintain internal discipline. Just imagine a scenario where Coalition MPs can talk about something they more or less agree on rather than constantly bag each other. It really does seem revolutionary. | The second involves plotting the long march back from Camp Tantrum. Let’s remember what has happened this year. This government has struggled to agree on major policies, struggled to maintain internal discipline. Just imagine a scenario where Coalition MPs can talk about something they more or less agree on rather than constantly bag each other. It really does seem revolutionary. |
| The government also thinks it can translate a decisive pick-up in global confidence and activity into the vibe of the domestic political arena. | The government also thinks it can translate a decisive pick-up in global confidence and activity into the vibe of the domestic political arena. |
| In the process of importing the feelgood, the government will also attempt to import Donald Trump’s corporate tax cuts by arguing (amplified by business groups) We Absolutely Must Follow The Donald Or Risk Becoming Internationally Uncompetitive. | In the process of importing the feelgood, the government will also attempt to import Donald Trump’s corporate tax cuts by arguing (amplified by business groups) We Absolutely Must Follow The Donald Or Risk Becoming Internationally Uncompetitive. |
| Think of next year as a special down under episode of The Apprentice: cut corporate taxes Australia, or you’re fired. | Think of next year as a special down under episode of The Apprentice: cut corporate taxes Australia, or you’re fired. |
| The interesting thing to watch will be how Labor reacts. | The interesting thing to watch will be how Labor reacts. |
| The economic conversation in Australia between the major parties to date has been the unreconstructed trickle-down merchants versus the guardians of equity – a conversation where Labor has been able to make political gains on the Coalition. | The economic conversation in Australia between the major parties to date has been the unreconstructed trickle-down merchants versus the guardians of equity – a conversation where Labor has been able to make political gains on the Coalition. |
| We saw Labor reduce the Turnbull government to a majority of one at the last federal election by having precisely that conversation, while the aspirational tone from the prime minister sounded glib and out of touch. | We saw Labor reduce the Turnbull government to a majority of one at the last federal election by having precisely that conversation, while the aspirational tone from the prime minister sounded glib and out of touch. |
| The reason Labor has been able to make gains on the Coalition up until now in an area of traditional Coalition strength is because the opposition’s top line messages resonate with the lived experience of ordinary voters in the Australian economy described in minute detail by Treasury: one with stagnating wages and all the insecurities and loop effects that flow from that. | The reason Labor has been able to make gains on the Coalition up until now in an area of traditional Coalition strength is because the opposition’s top line messages resonate with the lived experience of ordinary voters in the Australian economy described in minute detail by Treasury: one with stagnating wages and all the insecurities and loop effects that flow from that. |
| Labor’s messaging works when the world is stuck in the long shadow of the global financial crisis. | Labor’s messaging works when the world is stuck in the long shadow of the global financial crisis. |
| If we remain in that economy, my instinct is Labor’s messages still resonate. | If we remain in that economy, my instinct is Labor’s messages still resonate. |
| But if we transition to a new one, if green shoots become green lights, the balance between aspiration and insecurity in this country might shift – and it will be interesting to see how Labor adapts. | But if we transition to a new one, if green shoots become green lights, the balance between aspiration and insecurity in this country might shift – and it will be interesting to see how Labor adapts. |
| Australian politics | Australian politics |
| Malcolm Turnbull | Malcolm Turnbull |
| Coalition | Coalition |
| Labor party | Labor party |
| Bill Shorten | Bill Shorten |
| Australian economy | Australian economy |
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