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What Cyril Ramaphosa's victory means for South Africa What Cyril Ramaphosa's victory means for South Africa
(1 day later)
Cyril Ramaphosa was always the frontrunner. Cyril Ramaphosa was always the frontrunner, but his victory was not the crushing victory that his supporters had been hoping for.
He'd won support from more provinces and more branches, and benefited from the fact that as South Africa's deputy president he was, by tradition, viewed as the heir apparent. His winning margin was just 179 votes, and his allies failed to secure other key positions at the top of the African National Congress (ANC).
But his victory still has an element of surprise - and will come as a huge relief to his supporters - after a brutal battle for votes within the governing ANC that saw weeks of legal challenges and widespread allegations, right up to the last minute, of fraud, bribery and threats. South Africa is now trying to work out whether this amounts to a recipe for further political deadlock, or a new era for the party that has led the country since 1994.
Even now, the possibility of fresh appeals by defeated candidates cannot be ruled out. Mr Ramaphosa will now lead the ANC into the 2019, but it is far from clear whether - as had been widely predicted before the vote - he will now be able to act fast to "recall" President Jacob Zuma, and take his place as head of state.
There is precedent for such a move.
Cyril Ramaphosa at a glance:Cyril Ramaphosa at a glance:
Profile: Cyril RamaphosaProfile: Cyril Ramaphosa
Despite his status as an ANC veteran who has been President Zuma's right-hand man for the past five years, Mr Ramaphosa sought hard not to portray himself as the "continuity" candidate. It is widely believed that Mr Zuma, who has wrestled with a succession of personal and political scandals, is helping to undermine the ANC's popular support, particularly in urban areas and during his campaign Mr Ramaphosa condemned high-level corruption as "treason", in remarks that seemed aimed at the president.
Indeed he was vocal in his criticism of high-level corruption during his campaign, describing it as "tantamount to treason". Much may depend on whether Mr Ramaphosa's supporters manage to secure a solid majority on the National Executive Committee - the ANC's key 80-member decision-making body - in the last hours of this elective conference.
Many saw that as a thinly veiled attack on President Jacob Zuma, who is facing multiple allegations of corruption. Two provincial leaders, whose careers have also been overshadowed by alleged corruption and who were considered strong backers of President Zuma, secured powerful positions in the party.
International investors and ratings agencies are likely to react enthusiastically to Mr Ramaphosa's election, and confidence in the South African economy and currency - which has fluctuated wildly during Mr Zuma's erratic presidency - is sure to rise, at least in the short-term. Ace Magashule and David Mabuza, the party leaders in the Free State and Mpumalanga, were elected secretary-general and deputy president respectively.
Mr Ramaphosa is a highly successful businessman and has outlined plans to kick-start a stalled economy while tackling entrenched poverty and inequality. Mr Ramaphosa has a reputation as a shrewd negotiator.
His main rival Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma had, in contrast, alarmed some analysts with her fierce criticism of white-owned businesses, and her focus on more populist proposals like land seizures, as well as her more muted comments about corruption. His options may currently be restricted within the ANC, but he remains well placed to become South Africa's next president, a position with formidable constitutional powers to hire and fire.
Much now depends on the political choreography of the next hours, days, and weeks within the ANC. The political momentum is his to lose.
Mr Zuma's own future looks uncertain. International investors and ratings agencies are likely to react enthusiastically to Mr Ramaphosa's election, and confidence in the South African economy and currency - which has fluctuated wildly during Mr Zuma's erratic presidency - is sure to rise sharply.
In theory he could remain South African president until national elections in 2019, restricting Mr Ramaphosa's room for manoeuvre. Mr Ramaphosa is an enormously wealthy businessman and has outlined plans to kick-start a stalled economy while tackling entrenched poverty and inequality.
But it's extremely likely that a victorious Mr Ramaphosa will seek the "recall" of President Zuma by the ANC, as happened to his predecessor Thabo Mbeki. His main rival, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, had, in contrast, alarmed some analysts with her focus on more populist proposals involving targeting the enduring power of white-owned businesses.
If that happens, then things could move very quickly, and a President Ramaphosa would probably move fast to remove Mr Zuma's allies from key positions.
The heads of the National Prosecuting Authority and the state power utility have, for instance, faced particular criticism.
Opinion polls suggest that the ANC stands a better chance of shoring up its waning popular support and winning the 2019 elections under Mr Ramaphosa's leadership.Opinion polls suggest that the ANC stands a better chance of shoring up its waning popular support and winning the 2019 elections under Mr Ramaphosa's leadership.
But the divisions - seemingly defined by patronage networks rather than by policy - within the governing party will be difficult to paper over, and the economic and structural challenges facing South Africa remain daunting. But the divisions - more defined by patronage networks than by policy - within the party will be difficult to paper over, not least after such a rancorous campaign, and the economic and structural challenges facing South Africa remain daunting.