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Trump Takes Mantle of First Bull as the Stock Market Rises Trump Takes Mantle of First Bull as the Stock Market Rises
(about 2 hours later)
WASHINGTON — President Trump has broken with many of the norms set by his predecessors, but in few ways has this been clearer than his cheerleading about the roaring stock market.WASHINGTON — President Trump has broken with many of the norms set by his predecessors, but in few ways has this been clearer than his cheerleading about the roaring stock market.
He is the unapologetic First Bull.He is the unapologetic First Bull.
He has crowed about the stock market at least once a week for the past two months. In two Twitter messages early Tuesday morning, the president cited a 5,000-point rise in the Dow Jones industrial average this year, and then said the market had more room to roar once the impact of tax legislation he is expected to sign this week becomes law.He has crowed about the stock market at least once a week for the past two months. In two Twitter messages early Tuesday morning, the president cited a 5,000-point rise in the Dow Jones industrial average this year, and then said the market had more room to roar once the impact of tax legislation he is expected to sign this week becomes law.
Other presidents have occasionally talked about market booms, but often avoided saying anything that could move markets, particularly on individual company stocks. Other presidents have occasionally talked about market booms, but often avoided saying anything that could move markets, particularly on individual company stocks. More commonly, they have talked about unemployment numbers, housing starts and other indicators that are less sensitive to market forces.
Mr. Trump has ignored those conventions, with relish.Mr. Trump has ignored those conventions, with relish.
Even at a speech on national security on Monday, he took a detour to talk again about records being set in the markets. The market performance is now an almost standard part of any address he makes.Even at a speech on national security on Monday, he took a detour to talk again about records being set in the markets. The market performance is now an almost standard part of any address he makes.
The peril for Mr. Trump is that market cycles invariably have downturns, too, sometimes significant ones, and claiming credit for the rise could also mean owning the fall.The peril for Mr. Trump is that market cycles invariably have downturns, too, sometimes significant ones, and claiming credit for the rise could also mean owning the fall.
Mr. Trump inherited a strong economy from President Barack Obama. The unemployment rate was 4.8 percent in January when he took office and had a solid record of adding private-sector jobs.Mr. Trump inherited a strong economy from President Barack Obama. The unemployment rate was 4.8 percent in January when he took office and had a solid record of adding private-sector jobs.
Stock markets have been rising essentially since March 2009, when the global financial crisis was near its worst. The stock markets are now in the second-longest bull run in history, trailing only the rally that lasted from 1987 until 2000.Stock markets have been rising essentially since March 2009, when the global financial crisis was near its worst. The stock markets are now in the second-longest bull run in history, trailing only the rally that lasted from 1987 until 2000.
Wall Street and investors are emboldened by the tax cut proposal and Mr. Trump’s reversal of several major regulatory measures on environmental matters, financial services and the telecommunications industry. Wall Street and investors are emboldened by the tax cut proposal and Mr. Trump’s reversal of several major regulatory measures on environmental matters, financial services and the telecommunications industry. But analysts also attribute the robust market performance to strong corporate earnings.
Consumer confidence is also on the rise, which helps to add to an overall pro-market investment psychology.Consumer confidence is also on the rise, which helps to add to an overall pro-market investment psychology.
“The market is not the economy,” said Dean Baker, director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington. “The market is a measure of future profitability.”
About half of the country has no money invested in the stock market, according to Federal Reserve data. But at rallies and speeches, the president often asks “how’s your 401(k) doing?”
That is a compelling statement — as long as the market climbs. But even the longest bull markets have eventually come to an end.
“If you want to say everything on a market going up is to your credit, it would seem to follow that if it goes down, it is to your blame,” Mr. Baker said. “I wouldn’t count on that in this case.”