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Catalonia Election: What to Watch For Catalan Separatists Seem Poised to Hold Majority After Regional Elections
(about 13 hours later)
Catalans vote on Thursday for a new regional Parliament, an election that could decide whether the region persists in its drive for independence or instead seeks to negotiate a settlement with the Spanish central government after months of feuding. Here is what to watch for. BARCELONA — Catalonia’s separatist parties were poised to hold on to a narrow majority in regional elections on Thursday, according to nearly complete official results, a seeming vindication of their independence drive, which has divided the region and threatened to fracture Spain.
The election was called by Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy of Spain after he took extraordinary control of the region in late October to stop secessionism in its tracks. Mr. Rajoy used his emergency constitutional powers hours after separatist lawmakers declared independence from Spain. If confirmed, the outcome would be a significant setback for Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy, who invoked emergency powers, ousted the Catalan government and took direct administrative control of the formerly autonomous region after its separatist lawmakers declared independence in October.
Mr. Rajoy is gambling that voters will punish the separatists who had propelled the nation’s worst constitutional crisis in decades — and then allow him to remove his emergency control and hand back power to a new regional administration that, Mr. Rajoy hopes, will be willing to remain within Spain. Mr. Rajoy called the elections hoping to reshuffle the political deck, calculating that Catalan voters would punish the secessionist leaders who had provoked the country’s worst constitutional crisis in decades.
The last opinion polls showed a race too close to call. The main unionist and separatist parties were running neck-and-neck. That gamble appeared not to have paid off. The three main separatist parties won 70 of the 135 seats in the Catalan Parliament, with 85 percent of the votes counted. After months of feuding, Mr. Rajoy, Catalonia and indeed all of Spain now end up close to where the crisis started.
Most polls give Ciudadanos, a center-right party fiercely opposed to independence, a slight lead over Esquerra Republicana, a left-wing separatist party. But no single party is expected to come close to a majority. The most important thing to look for is whether unionist or separatist parties, as a whole, come out on top. Worse for Mr. Rajoy, he is now politically wounded, having lost his bet that a sufficiently large majority of Catalans would rally behind his call for Spanish unity to snuff out the secessionist challenge.
A fragmented result seems possible, in which as many as seven parties enter the 135-seat Parliament. That could mean a difficult round of negotiations to form another coalition government. If the deadlock is complete, there is also the possibility of a second round of elections, as happened at the national level two years ago, following inconclusive general elections in Spain. Instead, it was Mr. Rajoy’s Popular Party that was punished, with most unionist votes going to Ciudadanos, a rival party on which Mr. Rajoy already depends to keep his minority government alive in Madrid. The Popular Party was on course to win only four seats, ending up last among the main parties, according to the partial results.
A crushing unionist victory would leave the separatists in potential disarray. But it is unclear what any other result would mean for the movement, including if the separatist parties win. The election campaign has also now helped harden positions on all sides — between the central government in Madrid and Catalonia, as well as between unionists and separatists in the prosperous northeastern region itself.
The main separatist parties held a fragile majority in the last Parliament. They have not agreed on how they would revive the fractious coalition, which is even more strained by the turmoil of the last few months. A smaller separatist party, the far-left Popular Unity Candidacy, is also competing, even while denouncing the vote as illegitimate, complicating matters further. “This result does nothing to solve the conflict but instead reinforces the extremists on both sides,” said Elisenda Malaret Garcia, a professor of administrative law at the University of Barcelona.
Mr. Rajoy pledged that an early election would help return Catalonia to “normality and legality.” Should the result instead plunge the region into a new chapter of tensions and uncertainty, his own situation would become more fragile. Although the separatist parties appeared on course to squeak out a majority — narrower than even the fragile one they held in the last regional parliament — the balloting clearly reflected a painfully divided Catalonia.
Mr. Rajoy already sits at the helm of a minority government in Madrid. He has been kept in office since last year by an alliance with Ciudadanos, the center-right party that is now expected to gather most of the unionist votes in Catalonia. Opinion polls, meanwhile, show Mr. Rajoy’s Popular Party heading for a heavy defeat in the Catalan election. Such an outcome could shift the balance of power in Madrid. The region, which includes Barcelona, the hub of Spain’s thriving tourism sector, has harbored desires for independence based on its distinct language and culture for generations, even if they have ebbed and flowed.
The election is taking place in abnormal conditions, under direct, emergency administration from Madrid. The most controversial aspect of the campaign has been that the leaders of the two main separatist parties have not been in Catalonia. The current standoff is a high-water mark. It has unsettled not only Spain but also its neighbors in the European Union, many of whom are fearful of separatist challenges of their own at a time of rising populism and nationalism. Almost no politician outside of Catalonia has supported the drive for independence.
Carles Puigdemont, the ousted leader of Catalonia, has been campaigning via satellite link from Belgium, where he fled fearing prosecution in Spain. His former deputy, Oriol Junqueras, has been in prison in Madrid, awaiting trial on rebellion and other charges. Both Mr. Puigdemont and Mr. Junqueras have denounced the circumstances of the election, but they are expected to accept its outcome. But even the separatists are a fractious group and they have already struggled in the past to agree on tactics or strategy. In recent weeks, their disagreements have become more profound, after their failed independence push in October.
If elected, however, it is unclear how they could then take their seats in a new Catalan Parliament while also facing potential prosecution for sedition and rebellion, which can carry 30-year prison terms. The separatist parties may now find themselves facing a difficult round of negotiations to decide who should lead Catalonia’s government and how to put their secessionist project back on track.
Polls opened at 9 a.m. and will close at 8 p.m. Unlike Catalonia’s October independence referendum, which Spanish authorities tried to block with thousands of police officers, no clashes are anticipated this time. Pollsters predict a record turnout, after politicians on both sides presented the election as a make-or-break one for Catalonia. No official exit polls are expected, but representatives of the central government are due to announce the results before midnight. The leaders of the two main separatist parties campaigned from outside Catalonia — one from prison in Madrid and the other from a self-imposed exile in Belgium — and both face prosecution for rebellion after a botched attempt to flout Spain’s Constitution and declare unilateral independence in late October.
Perhaps the election’s biggest surprise was the strong showing by the recently overhauled party of Carles Puigdemont, the ousted leader of Catalonia, which was on course to win 33 seats in the next regional parliament, one more seat than Esquerra Republicana, the other main separatist party.
Mr. Puigdemont surfaced almost two months ago in Belgium, from where he has refused to return to be prosecuted in Spain for rebellion. The leader of Esquerra, Oriol Junqueras, has been awaiting trial in a prison in Madrid.
Pending a final result, Thursday’s vote means that “the Spanish government will no longer be able to ignore the fact that a majority of Catalans have rejected Mr. Rajoy’s intervention in Catalonia and want an independence referendum,” argued Carles Campuzano, a lawmaker from Mr. Puigdemont’s party.