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| Version 3 | Version 4 |
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| Leaked letter predicts crime rise | Leaked letter predicts crime rise |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| Crime levels are set to rise as a result of the economic downturn, according to a leaked Home Office letter. | |
| The draft letter to Downing Street says rising crime figures and increased hostility to migrants are likely. | The draft letter to Downing Street says rising crime figures and increased hostility to migrants are likely. |
| It also forecasts more smuggling of fuel, alcohol and tobacco. | It also forecasts more smuggling of fuel, alcohol and tobacco. |
| The Home Office said the letter was draft advice which had not been cleared by home secretary Jacqui Smith and had not been sent to Number 10. | |
| Migrant workers | Migrant workers |
| The letter suggests that both property crime, such as burglary, and violent crime may go up, based on the experience of the recession in the early 1990s. | The letter suggests that both property crime, such as burglary, and violent crime may go up, based on the experience of the recession in the early 1990s. |
| It says that if the economic slowdown was on a similar scale over the next couple of years, property crime would be likely to rise by 7% in 2008 and a further 2% in 2009. | It says that if the economic slowdown was on a similar scale over the next couple of years, property crime would be likely to rise by 7% in 2008 and a further 2% in 2009. |
| FROM THE TODAY PROGRAMME More from Today programme | FROM THE TODAY PROGRAMME More from Today programme |
| The letter adds that a downturn would affect the need for migrant workers, particularly in jobs such as construction where they make up a large proportion of the workforce. | The letter adds that a downturn would affect the need for migrant workers, particularly in jobs such as construction where they make up a large proportion of the workforce. |
| "Increased public hostility to migrants" is predicted to result from heightened competition for employment. | "Increased public hostility to migrants" is predicted to result from heightened competition for employment. |
| The leaked letter states: "There is a risk of a downturn increasing the appeal of far-right extremism and racism, which presents a threat as there is evidence that grievances based on experiencing racism are one of the factors that can lead to people becoming terrorists." | The leaked letter states: "There is a risk of a downturn increasing the appeal of far-right extremism and racism, which presents a threat as there is evidence that grievances based on experiencing racism are one of the factors that can lead to people becoming terrorists." |
| The letter also points out that a lack of resources could lead to some difficult choices in terms of police numbers and priorities. | The letter also points out that a lack of resources could lead to some difficult choices in terms of police numbers and priorities. |
| There could be a reluctance by police authorities to increase funding for forces which could also be hit by high fuel costs and pay increases, it adds. | There could be a reluctance by police authorities to increase funding for forces which could also be hit by high fuel costs and pay increases, it adds. |
| However, the letter says a downturn may stop the alcohol industry cutting prices and that this could lead to a decrease in drink-related violence in town centres. Cocaine use would also be expected to fall as Britons' finances were stretched. | However, the letter says a downturn may stop the alcohol industry cutting prices and that this could lead to a decrease in drink-related violence in town centres. Cocaine use would also be expected to fall as Britons' finances were stretched. |
| Economic crisis | Economic crisis |
| The Conservatives have seized on the document, saying it proves that the slowing economy will threaten people's security and safety. | The Conservatives have seized on the document, saying it proves that the slowing economy will threaten people's security and safety. |
| Shadow home secretary Dominic Grieve said: "It is deeply disturbing that a department as shambolic as the Home Office already faces such problems as a result of the economic downturn. It is patently not equipped to cope. Why haven't they prepared for this? | Shadow home secretary Dominic Grieve said: "It is deeply disturbing that a department as shambolic as the Home Office already faces such problems as a result of the economic downturn. It is patently not equipped to cope. Why haven't they prepared for this? |
| It is appropriate that the Home Office considers the effects the economic climate may have on crime and other policy areas Home Office spokesman | It is appropriate that the Home Office considers the effects the economic climate may have on crime and other policy areas Home Office spokesman |
| "Now we see that the consequences of Gordon Brown's complete mismanagement of the economy will not just hit hard-working families in the pocket but will also threaten their security and safety. Across the board Labour are failing in their duty to ensure the welfare of the British public." | "Now we see that the consequences of Gordon Brown's complete mismanagement of the economy will not just hit hard-working families in the pocket but will also threaten their security and safety. Across the board Labour are failing in their duty to ensure the welfare of the British public." |
| BBC News political correspondent Gary O'Donoghue says that although it comes as no surprise that ministers expect crime to rise in an economic downturn, there will be embarrassment that these thoughts have become public. | BBC News political correspondent Gary O'Donoghue says that although it comes as no surprise that ministers expect crime to rise in an economic downturn, there will be embarrassment that these thoughts have become public. |
| Professor Richard Garside, the director of the centre for crime and justice studies at King's College London, said there was a long-term correlation between economic and social processes and the level of crime. | Professor Richard Garside, the director of the centre for crime and justice studies at King's College London, said there was a long-term correlation between economic and social processes and the level of crime. |
| "The document seems to imply this is going to raise significant challenges for the police and other criminal justice agencies in the next three to four years," he said. | "The document seems to imply this is going to raise significant challenges for the police and other criminal justice agencies in the next three to four years," he said. |
| "The question is, is it really going to be the criminal justice agencies which are going to solve this problem, the answer, I suspect, is no." | "The question is, is it really going to be the criminal justice agencies which are going to solve this problem, the answer, I suspect, is no." |
| The Home Office said it was confident that it had the right systems in place to respond flexibly to changing economic needs. | The Home Office said it was confident that it had the right systems in place to respond flexibly to changing economic needs. |
| A spokesman said: "We do not normally comment on leaked documents but this is draft advice that the home secretary has not cleared and has not been sent to Number 10. | A spokesman said: "We do not normally comment on leaked documents but this is draft advice that the home secretary has not cleared and has not been sent to Number 10. |
| "It is however appropriate that the Home Office considers the effects the economic climate may have on crime and other policy areas." | "It is however appropriate that the Home Office considers the effects the economic climate may have on crime and other policy areas." |
| The leak comes two days after Chancellor Alistair Darling said the UK was facing its worst economic crisis in 60 years. | The leak comes two days after Chancellor Alistair Darling said the UK was facing its worst economic crisis in 60 years. |
| Are you worried about rising crime levels in the current economic climate? What are your experiences? Send us your comments using the form below. | Are you worried about rising crime levels in the current economic climate? What are your experiences? Send us your comments using the form below. |
| In most cases a selection of your comments will be published, displaying your name and location unless you state otherwise in the box below. | In most cases a selection of your comments will be published, displaying your name and location unless you state otherwise in the box below. |