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| On Europe, Labour was right to be cautious. No longer | On Europe, Labour was right to be cautious. No longer |
| (4 days later) | |
| Thu 11 Jan 2018 20.15 GMT | |
| Last modified on Thu 11 Jan 2018 22.01 GMT | |
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| Labour’s dilemma about how to proceed in 2018’s Brexit endgame is genuine. It should be taken seriously and not dismissed. The underlying issue is easily stated. Two-thirds of Labour voters supported remaining in the EU in 2016. Nineteen of every 20 Labour MPs were themselves remainers. Yet two-thirds of Labour constituencies voted to leave. | Labour’s dilemma about how to proceed in 2018’s Brexit endgame is genuine. It should be taken seriously and not dismissed. The underlying issue is easily stated. Two-thirds of Labour voters supported remaining in the EU in 2016. Nineteen of every 20 Labour MPs were themselves remainers. Yet two-thirds of Labour constituencies voted to leave. |
| These tensions are real. Yet Labour – both the party and the movement – is pro-European. Labour members, a survey found last week, are strongly pro-European and overwhelmingly favour a “soft” Brexit: 87% want to stay in the single market, 85% in the customs union, and 78% think there should be a second referendum on the Brexit deal. | These tensions are real. Yet Labour – both the party and the movement – is pro-European. Labour members, a survey found last week, are strongly pro-European and overwhelmingly favour a “soft” Brexit: 87% want to stay in the single market, 85% in the customs union, and 78% think there should be a second referendum on the Brexit deal. |
| But the practical politics cannot be just brushed aside as feebleness. Audacity has a vital place in politics, especially in reformist politics, but it is facile to pretend there are no risks attached. Georges Danton ringingly said in 1792 that French revolutionary policy must be “De l’audace; encore de l’audace; toujours de l’audace … ” They are unforgettable and inspirational words. But 18 months later Danton died on the guillotine with many of his supporters. | But the practical politics cannot be just brushed aside as feebleness. Audacity has a vital place in politics, especially in reformist politics, but it is facile to pretend there are no risks attached. Georges Danton ringingly said in 1792 that French revolutionary policy must be “De l’audace; encore de l’audace; toujours de l’audace … ” They are unforgettable and inspirational words. But 18 months later Danton died on the guillotine with many of his supporters. |
| In facing up to Brexit, as in everything else, Labour is a coalition. Holding that coalition together is not easy, but it matters. Labour represents many of the most conclusively remain seats in the UK – Chuka Umunna’s Streatham tops that list. Simultaneously it represents many of the most conclusively leave seats – Ed Miliband’s Doncaster North is near the peak. It also holds some of the most equivocal seats, like Angela Eagle’s Wallasey. All three MPs are strong Labour remainers – but their electorates are completely at odds on the EU. | In facing up to Brexit, as in everything else, Labour is a coalition. Holding that coalition together is not easy, but it matters. Labour represents many of the most conclusively remain seats in the UK – Chuka Umunna’s Streatham tops that list. Simultaneously it represents many of the most conclusively leave seats – Ed Miliband’s Doncaster North is near the peak. It also holds some of the most equivocal seats, like Angela Eagle’s Wallasey. All three MPs are strong Labour remainers – but their electorates are completely at odds on the EU. |
| Many Labour MPs and most party leaders therefore remain circumspect about how to proceed. They are frequently denounced for this by passionate remainers. Remainer MPs in leave seats who were re-elected in 2017 with increased majorities, such as Miliband, have had some of their worries eased by their post-referendum election victories (even though there were also some defeats). But caution of a sort strikes me as honourable, even if it is frustrating. | Many Labour MPs and most party leaders therefore remain circumspect about how to proceed. They are frequently denounced for this by passionate remainers. Remainer MPs in leave seats who were re-elected in 2017 with increased majorities, such as Miliband, have had some of their worries eased by their post-referendum election victories (even though there were also some defeats). But caution of a sort strikes me as honourable, even if it is frustrating. |
| That said, a policy of caution is now as inappropriate for Labour as a policy of recklessness. Phase one of the Brexit negotiations is over. The opening exchanges in phase two are now beginning. The early signs from David Davis and Theresa May are that the government will approach phase two with the same underlying priority as it approached phase one – keeping the fanatical leavers on the Conservative backbenches onside until the business end of the process. | That said, a policy of caution is now as inappropriate for Labour as a policy of recklessness. Phase one of the Brexit negotiations is over. The opening exchanges in phase two are now beginning. The early signs from David Davis and Theresa May are that the government will approach phase two with the same underlying priority as it approached phase one – keeping the fanatical leavers on the Conservative backbenches onside until the business end of the process. |
| To obsess about a second referendum is to put the cart before the horse. The decision depends on the terms | To obsess about a second referendum is to put the cart before the horse. The decision depends on the terms |
| Yet huge national interests are at stake in these processes, irrespective of one’s stance on the vote itself. The two most important of these are Britain’s trading relationship with the EU after Brexit, which should be defended and maximised in the interests of the UK economy and jobs, and its relationship with Ireland, where the need to guarantee the peace process is paramount. | Yet huge national interests are at stake in these processes, irrespective of one’s stance on the vote itself. The two most important of these are Britain’s trading relationship with the EU after Brexit, which should be defended and maximised in the interests of the UK economy and jobs, and its relationship with Ireland, where the need to guarantee the peace process is paramount. |
| Throughout 2017, Labour moved gradually towards embedding these two priorities at the centre of its policy. It did so behind the scenes, through internal negotiation and step by step. Last August the shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer went public, saying that Labour stood for remaining in the single market and customs union in the transition period following March 2019, and for putting both relationships on the table for the future. It wasn’t Danton, but it was a decisive shift. | Throughout 2017, Labour moved gradually towards embedding these two priorities at the centre of its policy. It did so behind the scenes, through internal negotiation and step by step. Last August the shadow Brexit secretary Keir Starmer went public, saying that Labour stood for remaining in the single market and customs union in the transition period following March 2019, and for putting both relationships on the table for the future. It wasn’t Danton, but it was a decisive shift. |
| The question facing Labour in 2018 is whether and how it can move beyond that. It needs to come clean about the sort of relationship it seeks with Europe. For some, including many in the media, this is a boring question when compared with the more exciting alternatives. Remainers in the House of Lords are poised to press for a second referendum clause to be added to the EU withdrawal bill, which is scheduled to complete its Commons stages next week. Nigel Farage, from the diametrically opposing position, says he is warming to some such replay vote, with the aim of killing off the remain cause for a generation. | The question facing Labour in 2018 is whether and how it can move beyond that. It needs to come clean about the sort of relationship it seeks with Europe. For some, including many in the media, this is a boring question when compared with the more exciting alternatives. Remainers in the House of Lords are poised to press for a second referendum clause to be added to the EU withdrawal bill, which is scheduled to complete its Commons stages next week. Nigel Farage, from the diametrically opposing position, says he is warming to some such replay vote, with the aim of killing off the remain cause for a generation. |
| There is a strong case for a second referendum on the terms. But Farage is not a party leader or even an MP. Now, as before, he is a weapon deployed by media and business interests against parliamentary democracy. To obsess about a second referendum is to put the cart before the horse. The decision on whether to have a second poll depends on the terms. Those have not yet been agreed. The central issue for the next eight or nine months is what they should be. The referendum’s time will come. | There is a strong case for a second referendum on the terms. But Farage is not a party leader or even an MP. Now, as before, he is a weapon deployed by media and business interests against parliamentary democracy. To obsess about a second referendum is to put the cart before the horse. The decision on whether to have a second poll depends on the terms. Those have not yet been agreed. The central issue for the next eight or nine months is what they should be. The referendum’s time will come. |
| May can’t say what sort of British relationship with Europe she wants. She and her ministers are divided about the terms. And what she says is often at odds with what she has already agreed. If the phase-one agreement means what it says, then last month’s Brussels agreement tilted the talks towards a softer Brexit than May wishes to admit. The Irish border issue is pivotal. It is simply not possible for Britain to maintain a soft border in Ireland while pursuing the separate international trade deals and bespoke EU single market access that ministers pretend. At some stage, something has to give. | May can’t say what sort of British relationship with Europe she wants. She and her ministers are divided about the terms. And what she says is often at odds with what she has already agreed. If the phase-one agreement means what it says, then last month’s Brussels agreement tilted the talks towards a softer Brexit than May wishes to admit. The Irish border issue is pivotal. It is simply not possible for Britain to maintain a soft border in Ireland while pursuing the separate international trade deals and bespoke EU single market access that ministers pretend. At some stage, something has to give. |
| This week Jeremy Corbyn told Labour MPs that Britain could not remain in the single market. Labour pro-Europeans were furious. But Corbyn’s remark might not be as portentous as that suggests. The real issue is the future relationship with the single market, the customs union and other European regulatory agencies and enforcement systems. Corbyn has said nothing irrevocable about any of that. | This week Jeremy Corbyn told Labour MPs that Britain could not remain in the single market. Labour pro-Europeans were furious. But Corbyn’s remark might not be as portentous as that suggests. The real issue is the future relationship with the single market, the customs union and other European regulatory agencies and enforcement systems. Corbyn has said nothing irrevocable about any of that. |
| Yet he will need to do so, and in the next few weeks. Labour members will expect it. So will the trade unions. So, come to that, does the Labour-supporting press. All want to see the closest possible ties with the EU if Brexit goes ahead. A 21st-century case for this needs to be made. No one, least of all a Labour leader who thinks of his party as a movement, can avoid this. | Yet he will need to do so, and in the next few weeks. Labour members will expect it. So will the trade unions. So, come to that, does the Labour-supporting press. All want to see the closest possible ties with the EU if Brexit goes ahead. A 21st-century case for this needs to be made. No one, least of all a Labour leader who thinks of his party as a movement, can avoid this. |
| Corbyn should not hide behind the third of Labour voters who voted leave. His larger historic responsibility is to the members, unions and the two thirds of Labour voters who are pro-European. The hour calls for audacity, circumspection too of course, but audacity all the same. | Corbyn should not hide behind the third of Labour voters who voted leave. His larger historic responsibility is to the members, unions and the two thirds of Labour voters who are pro-European. The hour calls for audacity, circumspection too of course, but audacity all the same. |
| • Martin Kettle is a Guardian columnist | • Martin Kettle is a Guardian columnist |
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| Jeremy Corbyn | |
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