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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/jan/15/westminster-brexiters-ignore-scotland-theresa-may-nicola-sturgeon
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| Westminster Brexiters ignore Scotland at their peril | Westminster Brexiters ignore Scotland at their peril |
| (25 days later) | |
| Brexit has turned British politics upside down. But to the UK government and Westminster political classes it is business as usual on the home front. It doesn’t matter for them that Brexit is nearly entirely an English revolt (with Welsh acquiescence), or that Scotland and Northern Ireland are being dragged along against majority sentiment in their territories. | Brexit has turned British politics upside down. But to the UK government and Westminster political classes it is business as usual on the home front. It doesn’t matter for them that Brexit is nearly entirely an English revolt (with Welsh acquiescence), or that Scotland and Northern Ireland are being dragged along against majority sentiment in their territories. |
| Today the Scottish government published its latest paper on Brexit, which estimates that a hard Brexit would cost the Scottish economy £12.7bn a year by 2030, representing £2,300 per year for every person in Scotland. | Today the Scottish government published its latest paper on Brexit, which estimates that a hard Brexit would cost the Scottish economy £12.7bn a year by 2030, representing £2,300 per year for every person in Scotland. |
| The first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, spoke in her typical, no-nonsense manner at its launch. But while Sturgeon is consistently impressive, she has to deal with inconvenient realities, most notably that the UK government has consistently marginalised Scotland in the Brexit process. After playing an impressive hand post-June 2016 Sturgeon was outmanoeuvred in March 2017 when she made a call for a second independence vote. This was overtaken by UK prime minister Theresa May calling the June 2017 UK general election, which resulted in the SNP winning the most votes and seats in Scotland, but losing impetus with the loss of 21 of 56 Westminster seats. | The first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, spoke in her typical, no-nonsense manner at its launch. But while Sturgeon is consistently impressive, she has to deal with inconvenient realities, most notably that the UK government has consistently marginalised Scotland in the Brexit process. After playing an impressive hand post-June 2016 Sturgeon was outmanoeuvred in March 2017 when she made a call for a second independence vote. This was overtaken by UK prime minister Theresa May calling the June 2017 UK general election, which resulted in the SNP winning the most votes and seats in Scotland, but losing impetus with the loss of 21 of 56 Westminster seats. |
| The UK government doesn’t have a strategy for Brexit, but nor does anyone else for now, including the Scottish government. It isn’t a party to the UK-EU negotiations and can only influence events from the sidelines, and it doesn’t have any way of stopping Brexit. | The UK government doesn’t have a strategy for Brexit, but nor does anyone else for now, including the Scottish government. It isn’t a party to the UK-EU negotiations and can only influence events from the sidelines, and it doesn’t have any way of stopping Brexit. |
| These are problems beyond its calling – all of which are made worse by Jeremy Corbyn’s deliberate evasions on Brexit and his refusal to countenance Labour cross-party co-operation on discussing Westminster tactics with the SNP, Liberal Democrats, Greens and Plaid Cymru on Brexit. Yet the SNP could choose to seize the opportunity provided by this vacuum – and call for a second referendum on any Brexit deal (with 87% of SNP members wanting a second vote, according to recent Queen Mary University London research). | These are problems beyond its calling – all of which are made worse by Jeremy Corbyn’s deliberate evasions on Brexit and his refusal to countenance Labour cross-party co-operation on discussing Westminster tactics with the SNP, Liberal Democrats, Greens and Plaid Cymru on Brexit. Yet the SNP could choose to seize the opportunity provided by this vacuum – and call for a second referendum on any Brexit deal (with 87% of SNP members wanting a second vote, according to recent Queen Mary University London research). |
| Alongside this there is the outstanding issue of Scottish independence and the possibility of a future second referendum, which Sturgeon, despite the events of March 2017, has refused to rule out. Sturgeon said yesterday on the Andrew Marr Show that once UK government plans on Brexit became clearer in the autumn, “we will look at … the right to choose between whatever that new relationship with the UK is going to be, or choosing to be an independent country”. This is in part understandable, as it allows her to use this as a big stick and negotiating card in discussions with the UK government. | Alongside this there is the outstanding issue of Scottish independence and the possibility of a future second referendum, which Sturgeon, despite the events of March 2017, has refused to rule out. Sturgeon said yesterday on the Andrew Marr Show that once UK government plans on Brexit became clearer in the autumn, “we will look at … the right to choose between whatever that new relationship with the UK is going to be, or choosing to be an independent country”. This is in part understandable, as it allows her to use this as a big stick and negotiating card in discussions with the UK government. |
| But there is also the realpolitik that the Scottish government hasn’t got any new independence offer or plan up its sleeve, and no sign of one emerging in the immediate future. The threat of a new independence referendum is politics as drama and theatre: it plays to the pro-independence Scottish constituency inside and outside the SNP, and signals to the UK government that Scotland cannot be permanently ignored. | But there is also the realpolitik that the Scottish government hasn’t got any new independence offer or plan up its sleeve, and no sign of one emerging in the immediate future. The threat of a new independence referendum is politics as drama and theatre: it plays to the pro-independence Scottish constituency inside and outside the SNP, and signals to the UK government that Scotland cannot be permanently ignored. |
| Where all this ends up is anyone’s guess, but it is more than likely that it isn’t going to be pretty, or deliver the bright new confident morning for the UK promised by zealous Brexiteers. The UK’s institutions and very fabric are increasingly threadbare, while the Westminster political classes increasingly talk to themselves. Meanwhile, devolution itself is being undermined, from the abandonment of power-sharing in Northern Ireland, to EU powers that sit in devolved areas coming back to Westminster and not Scotland. | Where all this ends up is anyone’s guess, but it is more than likely that it isn’t going to be pretty, or deliver the bright new confident morning for the UK promised by zealous Brexiteers. The UK’s institutions and very fabric are increasingly threadbare, while the Westminster political classes increasingly talk to themselves. Meanwhile, devolution itself is being undermined, from the abandonment of power-sharing in Northern Ireland, to EU powers that sit in devolved areas coming back to Westminster and not Scotland. |
| British politics as currently conducted cannot go on indefinitely, with the will of the people interpreted on the basis of just one June 2016 vote, but ignored in everything else. The difference in Scotland, and one that the Scottish government articulates over Brexit, is that public opinion north of the border cannot be permanently ignored without profound consequences. Business-as-usual politics is part of the problem and not an option with regard to Scotland or Brexit. | British politics as currently conducted cannot go on indefinitely, with the will of the people interpreted on the basis of just one June 2016 vote, but ignored in everything else. The difference in Scotland, and one that the Scottish government articulates over Brexit, is that public opinion north of the border cannot be permanently ignored without profound consequences. Business-as-usual politics is part of the problem and not an option with regard to Scotland or Brexit. |
| • Gerry Hassan is a Scottish writer, commentator and academic. He is the editor of Scotland, the UK and Brexit: A Guide to the Future; and A Nation Changed? The SNP and Scotland Ten Years On | • Gerry Hassan is a Scottish writer, commentator and academic. He is the editor of Scotland, the UK and Brexit: A Guide to the Future; and A Nation Changed? The SNP and Scotland Ten Years On |