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Tense times for Northern Ireland Tense times for Northern Ireland
(about 5 hours later)
By Mark Simpson BBC News There are testing times ahead for those at StormontBy Mark Simpson BBC News There are testing times ahead for those at Stormont
As It is just like old times at Stormont with talk of deadlines, deadlock and dialogue. It is just like old times at Stormont with talk of deadlines, deadlock and dialogue.
Although the devolved administration may be in jeopardy, there is no apparent danger that the peace process - or the ceasefires - will collapse.Although the devolved administration may be in jeopardy, there is no apparent danger that the peace process - or the ceasefires - will collapse.
Indeed, the biggest threat comes not from the barrel of an IRA or loyalist gun, but, perhaps, from political complacency. The more you think about it, the more you realise that this current dispute could mushroom into a full-blown political crisis IRA no threat says prime ministerIndeed, the biggest threat comes not from the barrel of an IRA or loyalist gun, but, perhaps, from political complacency. The more you think about it, the more you realise that this current dispute could mushroom into a full-blown political crisis IRA no threat says prime minister
One Stormont insider who has watched the parties embrace devolution warned: "It is not indestructible. But if you treat it like it is indestructible, you could destroy it."One Stormont insider who has watched the parties embrace devolution warned: "It is not indestructible. But if you treat it like it is indestructible, you could destroy it."
It is difficult to believe the First Minister Peter Robinson and the Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness really want the power-sharing arrangements to crumble.It is difficult to believe the First Minister Peter Robinson and the Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness really want the power-sharing arrangements to crumble.
Yes, their respective parties - the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Fein - are bitterly divided on a number of issues, but it is hard to imagine either walking away from office. Politicians tend to fight to cling onto power, rather than want to throw it away.Yes, their respective parties - the Democratic Unionist Party and Sinn Fein - are bitterly divided on a number of issues, but it is hard to imagine either walking away from office. Politicians tend to fight to cling onto power, rather than want to throw it away.
'Get real''Get real'
Yet Northern Ireland wouldn't be Northern Ireland without an annual trip to the political brink. And that looks like what could be happening.Yet Northern Ireland wouldn't be Northern Ireland without an annual trip to the political brink. And that looks like what could be happening.
All sides were agreed that the report on the IRA by the Independent Monitoring Commission was hugely significant, but Peter Robinson insisted that it wasn't quite enough.All sides were agreed that the report on the IRA by the Independent Monitoring Commission was hugely significant, but Peter Robinson insisted that it wasn't quite enough.
Rather than simply hearing that the IRA is currently inactive, he wants to hear them say that they are "out of business for good".Rather than simply hearing that the IRA is currently inactive, he wants to hear them say that they are "out of business for good".
But that does not seem likely to happen any time soon.But that does not seem likely to happen any time soon.
"We need to get real," was the pointed response of Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams."We need to get real," was the pointed response of Sinn Fein's Gerry Adams.
Never mind what unionists want, republicans have their own shopping list ready for the next round of talks between the parties.Never mind what unionists want, republicans have their own shopping list ready for the next round of talks between the parties.
High on that list are the devolution of policing and justice powers to Stormont, education reform and new laws relating to the use of the Irish language.High on that list are the devolution of policing and justice powers to Stormont, education reform and new laws relating to the use of the Irish language.
Crisis looming?Crisis looming?
On the face of it, it is possible to see a compromise in which both Sinn Fein and the unionists get some of what they want. There is a way - but is there a will?On the face of it, it is possible to see a compromise in which both Sinn Fein and the unionists get some of what they want. There is a way - but is there a will?
Does Peter Robinson want to start his career as successor to the Rev Ian Paisley by giving any concessions to Sinn Fein?Does Peter Robinson want to start his career as successor to the Rev Ian Paisley by giving any concessions to Sinn Fein?
Are the IRA likely to issue a new statement just because the new leader of unionism tells them to do so?Are the IRA likely to issue a new statement just because the new leader of unionism tells them to do so?
The more you think about it, the more you realise that this current dispute could mushroom into a full-blown political crisis.The more you think about it, the more you realise that this current dispute could mushroom into a full-blown political crisis.
However, even if the power-sharing executive did collapse, few believe it would take long to put back together again. In recent years, the political process has been like a game of snakes and ladders, with big falls usually followed swiftly by climbs back upwards.However, even if the power-sharing executive did collapse, few believe it would take long to put back together again. In recent years, the political process has been like a game of snakes and ladders, with big falls usually followed swiftly by climbs back upwards.
Whatever their differences, Northern Ireland's politicians are agreed on one thing - problems are best resolved by words not guns.Whatever their differences, Northern Ireland's politicians are agreed on one thing - problems are best resolved by words not guns.
Stand by for a war of words at Stormont in the coming weeks.Stand by for a war of words at Stormont in the coming weeks.