'Can Democrats Follow #MeToo to Victory?' diff viewer (2/3)

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~~Will Women Lead the Democrats to Victory?~~	Can Democrats Follow #MeToo to Victory?
2018-01-18 17:50:12 UTC	2018-01-23 11:20:06 UTC (5 days later)
Many think the issue of sexual harassment — embodied in the #MeToo movement — will work to the advantage of Democrats in upcoming elections. A mid-December NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey gave the party a three to one advantage over Republicans on the matter. But it is hardly guaranteed to do so.	Many think the issue of sexual harassment — embodied in the #MeToo movement — will work to the advantage of Democrats in upcoming elections. A mid-December NBC News/Wall Street Journal Survey gave the party a three to one advantage over Republicans on the matter. But it is hardly guaranteed to do so.
Views of sexual harassment and of gender issues generally differ sharply by age, sex and partisan allegiance — all of which create substantial unpredictability. The issue has the potential to accelerate the growing discontent among well-educated white women with the Republican Party. But it could also intensify hostility to the liberal agenda among conservatives, particularly white men, many of whom view women’s complaints of discrimination as “an attempt to gain advantage” in the workplace.	Views of sexual harassment and of gender issues generally differ sharply by age, sex and partisan allegiance — all of which create substantial unpredictability. The issue has the potential to accelerate the growing discontent among well-educated white women with the Republican Party. But it could also intensify hostility to the liberal agenda among conservatives, particularly white men, many of whom view women’s complaints of discrimination as “an attempt to gain advantage” in the workplace.
This complex dynamic is illuminated, for example, in the work of Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, a psychologist at Tufts, who recently reported a growing divergence on gender issues between male and female voters under the age of 30.	This complex dynamic is illuminated, for example, in the work of Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg, a psychologist at Tufts, who recently reported a growing divergence on gender issues between male and female voters under the age of 30.
In her paper, “How Gender Mattered to Millennials in the 2016 Election and Beyond,” Kawashima-Ginsberg found that in an election in which allegations of harassment and abuse against Donald Trump were central, support for the Democratic nominee dropped by 15 points from 2008 to 2016 among all young men between the ages of 18 to 29 (from 62 to 47 percent) and by 6 points among all women (from 69 to 63 percent). At the same time, turnout among young white men, many of whom supported Trump, shot up significantly.	In her paper, “How Gender Mattered to Millennials in the 2016 Election and Beyond,” Kawashima-Ginsberg found that in an election in which allegations of harassment and abuse against Donald Trump were central, support for the Democratic nominee dropped by 15 points from 2008 to 2016 among all young men between the ages of 18 to 29 (from 62 to 47 percent) and by 6 points among all women (from 69 to 63 percent). At the same time, turnout among young white men, many of whom supported Trump, shot up significantly.
“2016 saw the greatest number of votes cast by young white men in the past 12 years — markedly higher than their female counterparts,” Kawashima-Ginsberg wrote.	“2016 saw the greatest number of votes cast by young white men in the past 12 years — markedly higher than their female counterparts,” Kawashima-Ginsberg wrote.
Emily Ekins, director of polling at the libertarian Cato Institute, also sees pitfalls for Democrats. In an email, she noted that the #MeToo movement and accompanying protests have the potential to make gender issues more important than economics in 2018 and 2020.	Emily Ekins, director of polling at the libertarian Cato Institute, also sees pitfalls for Democrats. In an email, she noted that the #MeToo movement and accompanying protests have the potential to make gender issues more important than economics in 2018 and 2020.
That development, Ekins argues,	That development, Ekins argues,
Ekins cited a survey she helped conduct for the nonpartisan Democracy Fund Voter Study Group which found that Democratic men are far less likely than Democratic women	Ekins cited a survey she helped conduct for the nonpartisan Democracy Fund Voter Study Group which found that Democratic men are far less likely than Democratic women
In addition, the survey found that 64 percent of Democratic women strongly disagreed with the statement “When women demand equality these days, they are actually seeking special favors,” compared with 51 percent of Democratic men and 35 percent of all those polled.	In addition, the survey found that 64 percent of Democratic women strongly disagreed with the statement “When women demand equality these days, they are actually seeking special favors,” compared with 51 percent of Democratic men and 35 percent of all those polled.
In a demonstration of the potential political liability of the issues swirling around identity politics and political correctness, a Cato 2017 Free Speech and Tolerance Survey found that a bare majority (51 percent) of Democrats believes that calling out sexism is typically justified and not designed to shut off discussion. In sharp contrast, Ekins wrote,	In a demonstration of the potential political liability of the issues swirling around identity politics and political correctness, a Cato 2017 Free Speech and Tolerance Survey found that a bare majority (51 percent) of Democrats believes that calling out sexism is typically justified and not designed to shut off discussion. In sharp contrast, Ekins wrote,
Notably, 47 percent of Democrats agreed with Republicans and independents that accusations of sexism are used to silence opponents. The partisan divide over sexual harassment is stark. A December 2017 Quinnipiac University national poll asked the question:	Notably, 47 percent of Democrats agreed with Republicans and independents that accusations of sexism are used to silence opponents. The partisan divide over sexual harassment is stark. A December 2017 Quinnipiac University national poll asked the question:
Among all voters, 66 percent said they would “definitely” not vote for the candidate while 24 percent said they would “consider” voting for the candidate. So far so good. Democrats, however, were 84-10 against the candidate and independents were also opposed, 73-19. A plurality of Republicans, 48 percent, said they would consider the candidate, and 34 percent said they would not. Crucially, among Republican men, 56 percent said they would consider voting for the candidate and 29 percent said they would not.	Among all voters, 66 percent said they would “definitely” not vote for the candidate while 24 percent said they would “consider” voting for the candidate. So far so good. Democrats, however, were 84-10 against the candidate and independents were also opposed, 73-19. A plurality of Republicans, 48 percent, said they would consider the candidate, and 34 percent said they would not. Crucially, among Republican men, 56 percent said they would consider voting for the candidate and 29 percent said they would not.
In an email, Alex Castellanos, a veteran Republican media consultant and Trump loyalist, put forward his view of why Trump and his supporters are immune to the attacks of the #MeToo movement:	In an email, Alex Castellanos, a veteran Republican media consultant and Trump loyalist, put forward his view of why Trump and his supporters are immune to the attacks of the #MeToo movement:
Castellanos continued, heating up his rhetoric:	Castellanos continued, heating up his rhetoric:
Musa al-Gharbi, a fellow in sociology at Columbia, sees the possibility of backlash from voters — such as those Castellanos describes — who are angered or offended by the #MeToo movement. Al-Gharbi emailed me:	Musa al-Gharbi, a fellow in sociology at Columbia, sees the possibility of backlash from voters — such as those Castellanos describes — who are angered or offended by the #MeToo movement. Al-Gharbi emailed me:
In an essay in Salon in May 2016 that contended that Trump’s path to victory was much easier than conventional wisdom had it, Al-Gharbi argued that Democrats and	In an essay in Salon in May 2016 that contended that Trump’s path to victory was much easier than conventional wisdom had it, Al-Gharbi argued that Democrats and
The issue of sexual harassment is a useful tool to mobilize Democratic voters in liberal states and districts, according to Leonie Huddy, a political scientist at Stonybrook, but, like Al-Gharbi, Huddy thinks that such tactics should be deployed with caution:	The issue of sexual harassment is a useful tool to mobilize Democratic voters in liberal states and districts, according to Leonie Huddy, a political scientist at Stonybrook, but, like Al-Gharbi, Huddy thinks that such tactics should be deployed with caution:
Huddy warned specifically against Democrats adopting “a singular focus on harassment and gender issues” given the 2016 election outcome:	Huddy warned specifically against Democrats adopting “a singular focus on harassment and gender issues” given the 2016 election outcome:
More important, according to Huddy,	More important, according to Huddy,
In a recent paper, “Trending Towards Traditionalism? Changes in Youths’ Gender Ideology,” two sociologists, Joanna Pepin, of the University of Maryland, and David Cotter, of Union College, found evidence of a retrenchment on key gender issues among the young.	In a recent paper, “Trending Towards Traditionalism? Changes in Youths’ Gender Ideology,” two sociologists, Joanna Pepin, of the University of Maryland, and David Cotter, of Union College, found evidence of a retrenchment on key gender issues among the young.
Using polls of high school seniors over the past 40 years — conducted by the Monitoring The Future project at the University of Michigan’s Survey Research Center — Pepin and Cotter documented a shift on two key questions: “It is usually better for everyone involved if the man is the achiever outside the home and the woman takes care of the home and family” and “the husband should make all the important decisions in the family.” The accompanying chart shows the trend line on both of those questions.	Using polls of high school seniors over the past 40 years — conducted by the Monitoring The Future project at the University of Michigan’s Survey Research Center — Pepin and Cotter documented a shift on two key questions: “It is usually better for everyone involved if the man is the achiever outside the home and the woman takes care of the home and family” and “the husband should make all the important decisions in the family.” The accompanying chart shows the trend line on both of those questions.
I asked Pepin and Cotter about the significance of their findings for the #MeToo movement. Cotter emailed back:	I asked Pepin and Cotter about the significance of their findings for the #MeToo movement. Cotter emailed back:
On the optimistic side for Democrats, Cotter wrote,	On the optimistic side for Democrats, Cotter wrote,
On the pessimistic side, Cotter argues,	On the pessimistic side, Cotter argues,
R. Marie Griffith, a professor of religion and politics at Washington University in St. Louis and the author of the recently published book, “Moral Combat: How Sex Divided American Christians and Fractured American Politics,” raised another question in an email:	R. Marie Griffith, a professor of religion and politics at Washington University in St. Louis and the author of the recently published book, “Moral Combat: How Sex Divided American Christians and Fractured American Politics,” raised another question in an email:
Putting those qualifications aside, Griffith argues that “it certainly appears that women’s #MeToo fury is a powerful force with no sign of ebbing,” adding, “but my God, anything could happen between now and then, couldn’t it!? Still, my money’s on them for this year and, if I had to bet that far in advance, probably for 2020 too.”	Putting those qualifications aside, Griffith argues that “it certainly appears that women’s #MeToo fury is a powerful force with no sign of ebbing,” adding, “but my God, anything could happen between now and then, couldn’t it!? Still, my money’s on them for this year and, if I had to bet that far in advance, probably for 2020 too.”
Cindy Kam, a political scientist at Vanderbilt, argued in an email that sexual harassment is currently “more of a cultural conflict focusing on how people think women (and men) should be treated and should treat each other,” and has not yet emerged as a full-fledged electoral issue.	Cindy Kam, a political scientist at Vanderbilt, argued in an email that sexual harassment is currently “more of a cultural conflict focusing on how people think women (and men) should be treated and should treat each other,” and has not yet emerged as a full-fledged electoral issue.
She notes that	She notes that
Turning toward upcoming elections, Kam makes the case that	Turning toward upcoming elections, Kam makes the case that
Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster and an expert on the politics of gender, is more optimistic about a positive payoff for Democrats than either Kam or Griffith. In an email, Lake argued that the issue of sexual harassment will motivate young and unmarried women to vote, that it has already helped restore Democratic loyalty among college-educated women and that it will improve prospects for women running for office.	Celinda Lake, a Democratic pollster and an expert on the politics of gender, is more optimistic about a positive payoff for Democrats than either Kam or Griffith. In an email, Lake argued that the issue of sexual harassment will motivate young and unmarried women to vote, that it has already helped restore Democratic loyalty among college-educated women and that it will improve prospects for women running for office.
For many women, according to Lake, “there is a continuum from sexual assault to sexual harassment to bad social and dating behavior,” all of which can help motivate female voters.	For many women, according to Lake, “there is a continuum from sexual assault to sexual harassment to bad social and dating behavior,” all of which can help motivate female voters.
William Galston, a senior fellow at Brookings, also sees benefits flowing to Democrats from the #MeToo movement. In a Jan. 10 paper titled “Data point to a new wave of female political activism that could shift the course of US politics,” Galston writes:	William Galston, a senior fellow at Brookings, also sees benefits flowing to Democrats from the #MeToo movement. In a Jan. 10 paper titled “Data point to a new wave of female political activism that could shift the course of US politics,” Galston writes:
In terms of evaluating the political consequences of the #MeToo movement, Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, emailed me to say that in the December Wall Street Journal/NBC survey, sexual harassment and #MeToo “ranks 6th, behind shootings, natural disasters, Trump, tax bill, and terrorist attacks” in voters’ listing of the most important issue.	In terms of evaluating the political consequences of the #MeToo movement, Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, emailed me to say that in the December Wall Street Journal/NBC survey, sexual harassment and #MeToo “ranks 6th, behind shootings, natural disasters, Trump, tax bill, and terrorist attacks” in voters’ listing of the most important issue.
“That seems well behind the level of media attention the issue has received,” Franklin notes.	“That seems well behind the level of media attention the issue has received,” Franklin notes.
There are at least two possible developments that could substantially increase the attention paid to the issue of sexual harassment.	There are at least two possible developments that could substantially increase the attention paid to the issue of sexual harassment.
The first is Kirsten Gillibrand’s potential presidential candidacy. Gillibrand has taken the lead on the matter of sexual misconduct, declaring that “enough is enough” in a Dec. 6 Facebook post:	The first is Kirsten Gillibrand’s potential presidential candidacy. Gillibrand has taken the lead on the matter of sexual misconduct, declaring that “enough is enough” in a Dec. 6 Facebook post:
The second possible development is a Democratic takeover of the House or the Senate (or both) in the 2018 midterms. With majority control of either branch, Democrats would have the power to keep Republicans on the defensive and to set the issue agenda so as to maximize the benefits and minimize the costs of gender polarization.	The second possible development is a Democratic takeover of the House or the Senate (or both) in the 2018 midterms. With majority control of either branch, Democrats would have the power to keep Republicans on the defensive and to set the issue agenda so as to maximize the benefits and minimize the costs of gender polarization.
Poll data highlights the volatility of public opinion on matters of sexual behavior. Antithetical conclusions can be drawn depending on the questions asked. For example, a December 2017 Pew Poll found that a solid majority of adults, 66-28, believe sexual misconduct allegations “reflect widespread problems in society” as opposed to “individual misconduct.” Republicans agreed, 61-34. At the same time, in the same month, an Economist-YouGov survey found that a majority of Republicans, 59-41, believe that “false accusations of sexual assault” are a bigger problem than sexual assaults that go unreported and unpunished.	Poll data highlights the volatility of public opinion on matters of sexual behavior. Antithetical conclusions can be drawn depending on the questions asked. For example, a December 2017 Pew Poll found that a solid majority of adults, 66-28, believe sexual misconduct allegations “reflect widespread problems in society” as opposed to “individual misconduct.” Republicans agreed, 61-34. At the same time, in the same month, an Economist-YouGov survey found that a majority of Republicans, 59-41, believe that “false accusations of sexual assault” are a bigger problem than sexual assaults that go unreported and unpunished.